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Looking at recent share price movement (peculiar also the (sometime) inverse correlation with the overall markets I got a feeling something is cooking, not talking of TOB but surely some big player is increasing their position
'Do you mean the CWW network?'
I guess it must be in that consolidation. I dont see regulation as a block to a deal, its a moat/ barrier to new entrants, and I guess why Vod is pushing for fewer market participants and the Italy deal in particular.
"I wonder if bt's universal service obligation might apply to Vod UK and the old MCL network (not sure where that is now.."
Do you mean the CWW network? As far as the previous Mercury/C&W/CWW UK Network, my guess would be that it could raise issues around national security, but you could say that about any of the businesses making up Vodafone Group within their respective markets; It would probably depend on who was bidding to take them over. It will raise a lot of competition and national security scrutiny, everywhere they operate, but it wouldn't necessarily block a deal, imo.
""Hello fleccy. Have you topped up lately,or are you waiting for a lower price? Who do you think might make a takeover bid for vod? I thought it was considered very unlikely?"
I topped up £10,000 on Vodafone when the price was around 109.3p, a while back. At the time i was planning a further £10,000, but I didn't want to reduce my savings below a certain limit, so I regretably held off on buying the full £20,000 at around 109p. If Vodafone stays low, I want to buy another £10,000 before April, but I'm not quite there yet, and it will depend on what happens over the bext couple of weeks.
As far as a Vodafone takeover, whoever goes after them would need very deep pockets, and a plan on recovering their cash over time. As some of the articles have mentioned, a consortium of Hedge/Investment/Venture funds, or a big US Telecom player backed by the investment banks, may be possibilities.
'Vodafone doesn't tick that box in any of its markets.'
Get your point. Vod is more like EE (121,TMob,Orange). I wonder if bt's universal service obligation might apply to Vod UK and the old MCL network (not sure where that is now..)
"Re takeover, I suspect anything Europe service based would get regulatory scrutiny for compliance/ non compliance with EU Articles/ BEREC etc."
I would depend on who was doing the taking over, for example Deutsche Telecom wouldn't stand a chance due to the size of Vodafone's German business; A venture capital takeover wouldn be an issue under competition law, or national security concerns as long as they aren't tied to China, or Russia. The problem with BT is its monopolistic position in the UK, Vodafone doesn't tick that box in any of its markets.
Hello fleccy. Have you topped up lately,or are you waiting for a lower price? Who do you think might make a takeover bid for vod? I thought it was considered very unlikely?
Fleccy, I think you are probably right about offbook/ onbook. Also mbc included in that mix!
Re takeover, I suspect anything Europe service based would get regulatory scrutiny for compliance/ non compliance with EU Articles/ BEREC etc. Whilst Africa is less regulated or unregulated. In either event, all subscribe to, or are renegotiating, WTO and GATT rules where each sovereign state has its own 'economic mix' and agenda.
Will be an interesting year. For example, will the EU allocate any of the €750Bn recovery fund in 2022 to an entity that is being sold? An acquiring company would be picking up a regulatory obligation! VOD management strategy is to get an allocation of the Fund this year to deliver on the 'social contract'/ welfare benefits/ rural access etc
Not so long ago, the rhetroic suggested Telecoms are untouchable, with any investment in infrastructure only good for standing still. The likes of Vodafone and BT have seen their share prices plummet amongst a slew of articles talking them down, with various commentators focusing on any negative they could conjour out of any event. Covid somehow dropped the price of Telecom stocks, even though they were amongst the most resilient earners during the pandemic. Vodafone has underperformed against IAG and Ryanair, over the past year, even though Airline finances have been decimated by the pandemic.
I always took the view that Telecom stocks were either misunderstood, or deliberately trashed to force them into the gutter, so they could be picked up later when the time is right. Anyone who believes that the markets are fair, or that big company stock prices can't be manipulated, are miguided in my opinion; Off Book trades usually set their prices by the On Book Exchange price, so I don't see any reason why Algo's can't set the Exchange price, while really big trades are completed off book, or through derivatives, which allows big players to pick up large quantities of stock without affecting the On Book price, look at BT and Drahi for example.
Now all of a sudden, Telecom stocks are seeing a change of narrative, and being eyed as takeover targets; As I said previously, never believed the market commentary directed at Telecom stocks, by vested interest media, so a takeover attempt for Vodafone wouldn't surprise me. Any takeover attempt of Vodafone, wouldn't see the same regulatory scrutiny as a company like BT, so I'd see a takeover attempt of VOD as a more likely event.
*€750 Bn
Thanks Moneyboy, found this article/ link. Exciting stuff!
'If successful, a deal would create a telecoms powerhouse with a mobile market penetration of about 36% and combined revenues of nearly 6 billion euros ($6.80 billion).'
I wonder if it is also a catalyst for some of the €7501Bn EU recovery funding grant? 20% is allocated to digital and 70% must be distributed by the end of 2022.
https://www.reuters.com/business/media-telecom/exclusive-vodafone-iliad-talks-combine-italian-units-sources-2022-01-22/
Robina. According to the so called experts, the vod sp may rise to 1.50 , & the earths temp may rise by 1.5 to 4% by 30-40. They may both be right, both be wrong, one right & the other wrong? We don't know, but with respect, it is a bit of a daft comparison, don't you think? Are you an expert on both global warming & the stock market?
Has anyone read that Vod may be merging with another telecoms firm in Italy, thi could be a game changer, lots of extra revenue/income for VOD
Hi Dan, so, mikey 113 ,Dan 121, robleo 122, the snake got us last week, so I'm thinking up the ladder again, have a good weekend
mole-man, as you know I invested in smt trust who target tech stocks, got in around the 1200s and it got up to the 1500s, good profit there until recently, the tech stocks are in trouble with inflation concerns, this has now dropped back to the 1100s and still dropping, thankfully i sold up at 1350, so it does seem like investors are looking elsewhere for value stocks, will be an interesting few months, keeping some money back for a while, a bit to much uncertainty at the moment
'The main problem here is of course the debt'
Debt is part of all the capital used to fund the business. I dont think of my mortgage as funding my weekly food expenditure. VOD is a regulated business and if the return is not fair it will revert to mean average in agreement with the regulator. Thats Nicks message at the moment and the current performance/ efficiency narrative is underpinning a glide path up to 145 mid year imo
FY guidance was increased at H1 and Q3 reporting 1st week Feb will confirm if on track
https://invst.ly/x6ogt
Compound called a 'shooting star' candle this week which we got, not perfect. I would guess 115 support unless the market melts down? Even then, value buyers exiting growth should provide some more support around 111 and so ona imo
I'm wondering if the recent rising trend in Vodafone was a reflection of investors seeking value in dividends? Similar rise in the likes of IMB.
The main problem here is of course the debt and continuing expenditure which means net profit is negative without cheating on the balance sheet. So the dividend is really being funded by debt. Yet still the broker targets are 150+. Emperically you can see that this is madness. It is like saying the Earth's temp will not rise by 1.5-4 degrees but by 30-40.
robleo. I do have a very good sense of humour? Well I think so any way?! O.K., suit yourselves? How about your forecast for next Friday then? or are you going to be boring like mole-man? Even Mikey is joining in the fun??
Probably take till March for the market to work out all it's fear and panic.
Those yanks are having the worst start to a year since 2009, but back then the bottom turned out to be a few weeks later in March 2009, and then began the longest bull run in history.
We haven't found the bottom to this cycle yet, but it will come eventually. Look away if you can.
Investing should be boring.
Thanks for that flecci, it's difficult to argue with your long term way of thinking, just wondering just how long this is going to take, and is it going to be in the same place in a few years with very little if any improvement in the sp and on the price I payed just short of £2.00 based on that the dividend yield is very poor compared to other shares such as legal&general, mng,aviva,dlg,etc, I'm currently 32% down so will take a lot of dividend payments to get that back, ok as dan says that's in the past, and need to now look at the future, so think it's probably worth waiting until the summer to see if some of that can be recovered, at that point I will be thinking is this just going to drop back again, will definitely be a time to review the situation I think, not sure why everyone was moaning about Vodafone today everything of mine got clobbered , as you know Lloyds was one of the many that took a big hit, think we can blame the yanks for that, hope we don't get further hits next week
"why Vodafone ?"
I can't speak for Dan, but I'm invested in Vodafone & BT because they pay Dividends, and they're going to be big earners in the future. 5G IOT is going to be massive, with anything and everything connected to the cloud, like driverless cars, metro scale traffic control systems, security and monitoring devices, and just about anything else you can think of. The IOT market is forecast to be worth a Trillion dollars by 2030, and latency will be really important, so the mobile providers will have a natural advantage over the pure play cloud providers, with Edge processing needing to be as close to the IOT devices as possible.
The UK ISP's have apparently just anounced a CPI+3.9% price increase, and people need the internet as much as they need electricity today, so the telecom providers have sustainable pricing power in an inflationary enironment. I invested in BT because of their dominant position in the UK market, and Vodafone because of their international operations; I view them both as bullet proof investments, that'l give me a nice return over the medium to long term.
RE: Investing should be fun. When the fun stops, stop!, Dan you have to have a very good sense of humour to find this one fun ?
You have a pretty good knowledge about investing, so why Vodafone ? It's just a genuine question for you all, the way I see it has underperformed for several years, the company has massive debt, for me I'm just hopeful I may be able to recover most of my losses here, possibly by next may if last year is anything to go by, but then it may drop back to all time lows again just like last year possibly , just think theirs better places to invest in, but that's just my Opinium, maybe you guys could give me yours thanks ?,but I do understand though, why some of you guys who have bought in for around 110 with a 7% yield may see it differently