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Robleo
I think a lot of the easy money was made from March last year and the start stop covid fear movenents. All took off again on 2nd November iirc but you needed to be invested pre that dare to get the most from it. Every day throws up opportunities but we are nearing a short term high, possible correction so there will be lower entry levels.Stocks do not all go up together. The growth is largely baked in for now until it really rakes hold. Leadership has moved from tech to the old economy stocks for now. Take care.
GLA.
Re: buy low sell high, we all try to work on that strategy of course, and good luck to you Mary if your doing well, but putting it into practise, for most it's not that easy, you also need a lot of luck on your side, do think though, if have have some spare cash, this is a good time to invest, as a lot of shares are undervalued eg, vod,banks etc, and the economy is expected to grow once the world is back to work
Daniel (vodafone)
I use average, charts, technicals and am aware of reporting dates, dividends, news feed, alerts and do a fair bit of research post market close, sometimes up to midnight. Exhausting at times. Candlesticks serve me well but not just the company, indices, oils metals sectors. I look for rotation. I maintain a list of most stocks ranges and alerts and experience leads me to trade in companies I feel I know well (or at least the trading ranges). If one of the company alerts fall into my price target then depending on the drop % I may take a chance. I can afford to hold if I get it wrong and often do. eg GSK recently.
A recent example would be LRE. I followed it from the Mar 20 lows and noted recovery and spikes as it often popped up on the biggest risers or fallers. Felt the price was safe a £6 but never got any as it was sitting in the 750p range. I deemed this too rich as an entry point. Recently it dropped below £7 and that came into view. Dropped again. Waited for a further drop and entered a small amount (1k shares) around 660 (too high an entry but only a small %) and increased holding as the price fell towards £6. Took a few weeks longer than I hoped to turn around but I expect a full recovery toward £8 but may reduce over £7.20. Hope to make £3k+ on the position. I keep a core holding and then trade an additional position to improve averages until the shares are effectively free to me.
I find a good day to invest is when all indices are falling heavily and shares are falling 10% 15% 20% on top of previous falls. FTSE 100 250 350 etc. Usually when the BBC and Sky are reporting falls in the news programme and saying sell is an ideal time to start buying.
Nobody wants to catch a falling knife and as you say there may be selling reasons which are not known in general. My view is that prices go up and down within a range unless something changes. I stick to entry and exit points and rarely change my mind. You rarely time the near term low. The odd time I do then that is just luck.
LSEG is another example - big falls since reporting and now on my radar but too expensive for me yet. I am looking at 6800 and below and even then I may sit it out or wait for further falls. I may never buy any.
Of course luck plays a part, but luck won't overcome a losing strategy.
There are people on both sides of each trade. Winners and losers. The only ones who risk little are the brokers.
I have many friends who ask me for advice and would trust me to invest their money. It is something I politely decline as it is different if I lose my own funds. I would not want to be responsible.
I try to be helpful on these boards and wish you luck. Have a good evening.
PM me if you want.
DYOR and GL.
Mary. (vodafone)Thank you for your very interesting post. It sounds like you are doing well, so well done of course. However I find your advice almost meaningless. I.E. Your example. Company X -gets whacked by down market or broker downgrade & is obviously oversold, How do you know it is obviously oversold? There may be very good reasons for the selling, are you saying that every share that falls after a down market/down market, will bounce back. You say no rationale, but how do you define no rationale? It's just your opinion surely? I, & many thought vod was obviously oversold when it dropped from £2 , some time ago, but we were wrong. As for the reason, with hindsight, there may have been a good reason? You obviously have done well, but how do you know luck didn't play a part, & even if not, you still haven't said how you know which shares to invest in. You can tell me, I WON'T BLAME YOU IF YOU GET IT WRONG. Seriously though, it is very frustrating when some come on here suggesting how easy it is to make loads of money, but just just talk about how obvious is, with the benefit of massive amounts of hindsight. For every big winner like you, there are plenty of losers, who wont be posting on here. Thanks though, & if you can teach me a thing or 2, I won't hold you to it. Sorry, I forget to change the subject from bt.
Daniel
This works for me but is certainly not a recommendation to follow. DYOR.
For some context. I have traded in around 100 different shares. I try to keep my active portfolio to under 20 stocks (which I actively monitor and trade). My core stocks build up over time. No losses realised and up 70% (well over 6 figures - effective CGT tax rate of 3.6% as most in ISA) in the current tax year. Obviously paper losses happen time to time but usually reverse as they are tranistory. Diversification works for me.
Most days some shares get hit while others soar but the portfolio goes up week by week. Some days up £10k, had a £24k rise a few Mondays back. What a buzz. On these days I reduce the winners if they surpass my target price. I hold no love for the stocks so can be ruthless in cashing in even at the expense of further rises .
Some days are down too. On these days I look for opportunities in overold stocks. There are always many. My portfolio seems sweet at the moment. eg on Friday, down 4k on open, up 6k before sell off in US ended largely flat. Within that I let BP. continue it's run ( I have nursed it back from 190p and a 9k paper loss on the holding), and trimmed a few positions that popped up. eg SPT WG. I will rebuy these to trade on drops. I work on increasing my positions and reducing my averages. I aim to drive down my averages to Zero over time.
Your point is that the return % is relative to the holding is true. 13% on 100 shares v 6% on 10000 shares. The latter wins.
For me it is about recouping capital to the extend I hold shares that have effectively cost me nothing. The first stage is to get it 20% of the previous low and to continue averaging down. My trading plans vary on specific shares.
Here is an illustration (when I choose an opportunity)
AGAIN NOT A RECOMMENDATION TO FOLLOW.
Company X - gets whacked by down market or broker downgrade and is obviously oversold. Usually a good entry point. Particularly when the fall is indiscriminate. No rationale for the drop ferocity.
A recent example would be Trainline (never traded before).
Average in eg 410 (1/3) add on a further drop 390 (1/3) and on capitulation add again 374.4. In this case I got out around 440 (with intention to rebuy) but missed the rise to over 500. I will rebuy again when the price comes back below 440 if it does and repeat when possible.
MCRO is another amazing trading stock. In at 390 out at 500+ in again at 420 - all in a few weeks.
Sit back and wait for bounce. (I buy stocks that are likely to pay dividends, or resume dividends). On a bounce, even 30 mins later I sell a portion, maybe half, less or more - I have an algo (glorified speadsheet macro :) that optimises the best sell quantity and my average is brought to breakeven with hope for a partial retracement over the next week or month. I hold until is does. I try to keep cash at around 30% to take advantage of drops.
HTH.
Hello Mary. 13% & sub 60p sounds great to me, but without knowing how many shares you own, it's not possible for me to judge how well you are doing. If you buy a lot of shares now you get over 6%, & 6% of lot of money, is probable a lot more than 13% of a little. Obvious I realise! Still you are doing better than me, so good luck. Averaging down of course only works in a falling market, so as always It's about predicting sp movements, easy with hindsight,or a crystal ball, but otherwise difficult I think.
Daniel, by averaging down my sub 60p average is giving me a 13% return. All in an ISA too is best if you can.
mole-man. The vod sp would need to fall to about £1 to give an 8% yield, now you are scaring me, again, I just hope you are wrong.
VODs time will come to, perhaps sooner than later with the Vantage Towers float in March. Unbreakable broadband launch.
Annoyingly I exited BT when it got to 133 but that's life. Will go back in at 120 to BT when it retraces as it will no doubt.
If rates do start to rise, probably 8% yield would be attractive as holders need to account for probable loss of capital.
Yes all stocks are a risk assets. I am generalising that institutional investors will demand a higher return from a risk asset than from a bond. With VOD, it's all about the divi.
With yields on fixed income seeming to rise, it can also cause issues with the Towers IPO. The €15bn estimate yields about 3.5% I think. They may need to drop the price to make it more interesting to institutions. This is only if the rate curve does steepen. It's being quite volatile and rapid, which is what is spooking the markets. It may settle down. The Fed are insisting they are not going to raise rates. The market does not quite believe them.
Many stocks on the Nasdaq were down 20% by lunchtime EST today, then ran all the way back up to flat by the bell. It was wild.
All these shananigans that happen in the states usually find a way of coming over here eventually, so you need to watch them for clues of what may come.
mole_man. What kind of yield do you think vod should be then, More than the current 6%? is that what you are saying. You seem to be very well informed, but sometimes it would help, if you explain your remarks more clearly. B.T have a zero yield at the moment, & they seem to be doing ok. You say vod is a risk asset? all shares are, So is vod more so than most? We all know about the big debt. Just please explain your comments more clearly, otherwise surely you are just making wild assumptions.. Keep it coming though!! Wild or not!! Super fun??
As VOD's main trick is the Div, it may be suffering from stateside concerns about rising interest rates. The SP needs to come down to make the yield more attractive.
US 10yr Treasury yield spiked above 1.6% on better than expected jobs report. It sounds small compared to the VOD div yield, but any rise probably needs a similar yield rise in a risk asset like VOD to keep it attractive on a risk reward basis, to the big money that is.
Just a thought for the death by a thousand paper cuts decline. At least it's not US tech, which goes down 10% to 20% a day at the moment. Super fun.
Bt gone from 123 to 143 in 5 days. Come on VOD.