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The management have rewarded themselves with share options. The current scheme was set in 2018. Four years on and the share price is the same. Due to the way the management incentive scheme is constructed the pandemic dip has worked in their favour. So they trouser huge rewards. Long term shareholders have seen no return in value.
Again for anyone interest (Blogger analytics says a few of you are), here’s a second fiscal reform blog: https://ab-76.blogspot.com/2022/06/broken-promises-decline-of-oil.html
It’s titled Broken Promises - The decline of oil production and economic growth in TT. It describes many of the occasions over the past seven years that reform has been promised and some of the costs of those broken promises.
the management award themselves performance bonuses. RNS now. Whoopee for them.
For anyone interested in fiscal reform, I started a mini campaign on Twitter (see https://twitter.com/AB___76 ) and a blog (the first one is here https://ab-76.blogspot.com/2022/06/doomed-to-disappoint-trinidads-deep.html and there’s a link on Twitter if it doesn’t show). It probably won’t make a difference, but I thought I’d try.
Ab76
“Galeota depends upon fiscal reform and this is positive news. Fiscal reform, although taking far longer than it should, does not appear to have been abandoned.”
But quite possibly plugged and abandoned as far as the Budget in October is concerned…
The PM’s full speech is available at https://www.opm.gov.tt/prime-minister-dr-the-hon-keith-rowleys-keynote-address-at-the-2022-energy-conference/
The annual Energy Conference is currently taking place in Trinidad and Tobago.
Yesterday morning the Prime Minister gave the keynote speech. He spoke about how “it is in our interest to expeditiously take steps to monetize the country’s abundant oil and gas resources” and confirmed that the review into fiscal reform is ongoing, encompassing “capital allowances, petroleum profits tax, supplemental petroleum tax and royalty, both onshore and offshore, in shallow water and deep-water” - see https://trinidadexpress.com/business/local/rowley-mega-projects-to-boost-gas-output-by-2028/article_ff183654-e13d-11ec-9ba5-479f6aefe62e.html
Galeota depends upon fiscal reform and this is positive news. Fiscal reform, although taking far longer than it should, does not appear to have been abandoned.
Now available on the IMC site. Thought they would cover the questions that they didn’t get round to during the recording too. No such luck.
The reason I talk about transparency around HAWs is that I had not picked up on the problems with the previous HAW until Jeremy mentioned them in yesterday’s IMC Presentation. Which is not to say that this setback was not mentioned before, but it certainly wasn’t highlighted.
It would be great if TRIN actually drilled new exploration wells. So far, all plans announced by RNS have subsequently been postponed. We wait, and wait. Will they drill this year? Meanwhile TRIN sits on a cash pile and pays no dividend. Latest RNS of "Our ambition is to double production over the next few years" is hard to take seriously. They haven't achieved the previous target of 10% year on year.
Selling opportunity? ST’s TRIN tips have tended to be just that.
https://www.investorschronicle.co.uk/ideas/2022/05/24/drilling-for-bumper-profits/
Nice update from Simon tonight bodes well.
GLA
Should have asked about the performance of HAWs over time and whether there was going to be more transparency this time round.
sainteddonkey
PipeDragger will want to check out the disclaimers while he is at and have a think about the difference between realistic projections and share promotion exercises.
A report about drilling for PipeDragger to consider is available at https://www.cenkos.com/research-portal/#/portal/cenkos-securities
It lays out the plans to increase onshore production to 6000 barrels by 2024.
I think is what you mean! Not drilling yet. Sitting on cash
What we will get tomorrow will be the usual mixture of forward looking stuff and useful facts and figures.
We will as ever have to exercise our own judgment when it comes to the forward looking stuff, like I did with whether news on fiscal reform was imminent or not (as I suspected, it was not imminent). It will be interesting to see what the TRIN take on that whole issue is now.
TRIN are an honest bunch. Being led some way up the garden path by the regime on fiscal reform has not changed that, it has just shown them to be over-optimistic. In other words, TRIN let their aspirations become their expectations. And many BB posters duly made the same mistake.
It should all become a bit clearer tomorrow.
It would be nice. Will they drill or will they find another reason not to? Production will decline if they don't exploit the resources. Blah blah SPT but they have to live with it. T&T is not going to change for TRIN.
LuckCounts
TRIN are at the mercy of a business unfriendly fiscal regime. You can keep posting your figures, but the fiscal regime is the elephant in the room. It is difficult to see what more management can do other than keep lobbying. They could suspend the proposed onshore drilling campaign, I guess, or threaten to start deploying capital in other jurisdictions. These would be very bold moves, but would involve a high degree of risk.
“This is a terrible disappointment for Trinity and the poor share price performance this year won’t be made any better by the delay. Having said that when the company does decide to return to drilling there should be considerable upside.”
Not sure Malcy’s take adds much value.
Galeota not stating is hardly a surprise (I am sure they are delighted to blame the govt)
Looks like they will drill soon but I will only believe it when I hear they have spudded a well.
Otherwise, back to sleep in the Caribean.
LuckCounts
Nevertheless, that last update showed just how little of the cash that is generated makes it to the bottom line and does not bode well for the upcoming 2021 financials.
The man who predicted Trinity would end 2021 with $24.5 million says Trinity isn’t generating as much cash as the rampers predict. You really can’t make this stuff up.
St Ross can’t be a serious poster, he’s surely a parody.