The next focusIR Investor Webinar takes places on 14th May with guest speakers from Blue Whale Growth Fund, Taseko Mines, Kavango Resources and CQS Natural Resources fund. Please register here.
London South East prides itself on its community spirit, and in order to keep the chat section problem free, we ask all members to follow these simple rules. In these rules, we refer to ourselves as "we", "us", "our". The user of the website is referred to as "you" and "your".
By posting on our share chat boards you are agreeing to the following:
The IP address of all posts is recorded to aid in enforcing these conditions. As a user you agree to any information you have entered being stored in a database. You agree that we have the right to remove, edit, move or close any topic or board at any time should we see fit. You agree that we have the right to remove any post without notice. You agree that we have the right to suspend your account without notice.
Please note some users may not behave properly and may post content that is misleading, untrue or offensive.
It is not possible for us to fully monitor all content all of the time but where we have actually received notice of any content that is potentially misleading, untrue, offensive, unlawful, infringes third party rights or is potentially in breach of these terms and conditions, then we will review such content, decide whether to remove it from this website and act accordingly.
Premium Members are members that have a premium subscription with London South East. You can subscribe here.
London South East does not endorse such members, and posts should not be construed as advice and represent the opinions of the authors, not those of London South East Ltd, or its affiliates.
The last trade in Dublin was 1.02! Hopefully we will remain on an upward path.
Just checked, .985 in Dublin. How long before we are no longer a penny stock?
On the RTE lunchtime news, both Dublin & Cork ports, the largest in the country, report increase in food imports. People have to eat. There is value in Total Produce. It will take quite a few years till we see €2.57 again.
In wholesale veg markets.
Might not be good for Total.
Total Produce released FY 2019 financial results yesterday morning, reporting that revenue increased by 22% to €6.2bn, adjusted EBITDA increased by 52% to €202.8m and adjusted earnings per share increased by 41% to 14.86c driven predominantly by Dole asits European business reported a dip in profitability. Management raised the final dividend by 2.5% to 2.577c, bringing the fulldividend to 3.49c (2.7% dividend yield). North America now accounts for 47% of group revenue, Europe accounts for 46% and theROW accounts for 7%. Group net debt closed the period at €220m. Free cash flow and operating cash flow increased by c.10-15% in 2019 which is probably a fair reflection of overall group performance. 2019 was the first full year contribution from Total Produce 45% stake in Dole, as 2018 only included a five month contribution.Notable from the result was the strong performance of the groups international division which reported an 18% surge in profits, weakness in the Europe-non Eurozone division which reported a 20% contraction in profits due to competition in Holland vegetable/salad markets and the surge in revenue and profits from the groups Dole share exposure.Additionally the surge in Total Produceprofit margin as a result of the contribution from Dole and International division was notable.CommentTotal Produce has a market cap currently of €505m and an enterprise value of €745m implying the group trades on 9.2x earningsand 3.6x EV/EBITDA. The cheap valuations are a function of investor concern about Total Produce's exposure to Dole which in itself has $1.28bn of net debt (-$63m YoY). Dole's net debt to EBITDA is 5.2x. Our fair value for Total Produce is 11x 2020 earnings per share of 15c which implies €1.65 fair value. A catalyst for a move up to our fair value in the short term would be Dole selling non-core assets to reduce its gearing and an improvement in European profits. Longer term, our fair value is over €2 as Dole gearing comes down, Total Produce earnings grow and Dole gets consolidated into Total Produce.
Thanks for posting this research ashton, it's particularly good to see Dole coming good
https://www.davy.ie/research/public/genericPage.htm?page=morning
https://www.goodbody.ie/assets/Goodbody_Morning_Wrap_05_March_2020.pdf
Not much not to like in these results. Onwards and upwards from here hopefully.
At 1st look it's ""Steady as she goes" currently €1.30 In Dublin on just under 4.0m shares traded (double counted?)
5th March confirmed
No announcement yet, results normally issued early in March. What are the chances of Dole launching a bid? That was a joke.
Disadvantages here are:
Primary listing is in Ireland
Spread is near 10%
Dividend is only c2%
Dominant family holding by McCanns
Substantial debt, with gearing at 64%
BUT, the PER is c12, revenues are rising, and 80% of revenues are non-UK. The recent acquisition of 45% of Dole is the key factor. Results are due next month. Worth a look?
Current price of 113 on this site makes no sense, just over 140 in Dublin, that the price is up on the day so far on very low turnover.
Hi HK, Tks for posting, I thought that I was the only one invested! Yes, our company has many issues. Hopefully the full year results will provide some clarity.
Happy Christmas
Still invested. My two cents: Mr Market is still on the fence on this company due to a combo of macro and company-specific factors. In no particular order : the reverse take-over (Dole acquisition) is not yet fully digested, pressure on top line revenue, higher leverage, and no-deal/hard Brexit/BoJo political risk ramifications.
Just wondering if anyone is still invested? Results in 13 weeks!!!!
€1.502 just now, something up?
Now €1.40. Can't see any news that might take it higher any time soon
Currently €1.26 in Dublin. This share is really unloved. The results didn't look bad, I wounder would TOP had been taken over if they hadn't gone down the Dole route. I suspect that we will have to sit tight for more than a couple of years.
I think the Dole debt situation is dealt with in Note 9. No idea how this will end up, the end-game is a few years away still. At least the SP has improved very slightly. Good volume in Dublin this morning, €1.312 or 1.314 just now depending where you look.
https://investors.totalproduce.com/~/media/Files/T/Total-Produce-IR/documents/financial-report/2019/2019-interim-results.pdf
No info re Dole Debt released as far as I can see. Hard to know where price will head now. Will it drift away as no catalyst to make it rise. Hope I am wrong but it needs something to give it a lift.
At first glance they look ok, Dole trading good, need to read further regarding Debt.
Almost 1M traded in Dublin to-day, DeGiro showing 40,626 & this site 3,554.
Alarm clock set for tomorrow morning.
Total Produce Greenyard profitability to improve in H1 though read-through limited for Total Produce Greenyard this morning provided a Q1 trading update in which it indicated its expectation for H1 EBITDA (due in November) to be in the range of €43-45m, significantly up from the €23.3m achieved in H118. The improvement is largely driven by the implementation of the Group’s Transformation Plan which focuses on margin, profitable volume and rightsizing the overhead cost base. Overall Q1 sales were down 2.6% with the performance by division: i) Fresh (most comparable to Total Produce) revenues down c.4% due to: a) the termination of certain loss-making volumes; and b) price pressures in categories like grapes, melons and citrus. In addition, the benefit of newly signed partnership volumes has yet to fully flow through; and, ii) Long Fresh sales were up 4.1% with strong growth in Foodservice and industry customer segments. This is a solid update from Greenyard though it remains difficult to get a clear read-through for Total Produce given the company-specific nature of some of the issues facing Greenyard.
Total Produce will report H1 results on Thursday for which we forecast c.2.5% decline in Total Produce EBITA on a standalone basis (e.g. ex Dole) which reflects a tough prior year comparative (+c.7% in H118) and some of the competitive pricing dynamics Greenyard outlined in its statement. Foe Dole, we anticipate the business to report a solid recovery in EBITDA following the industry-wide challenges faced in FY18. Overall, we expect the Group to reiterate its FY19 guidance of mid-to-high single digit EPS growth