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Ah right. Got it.
Well, gyms, nail salons and so on are opening now, so along with restaurants people should have a reason to get some new closes. Schools back in 6 weeks time. TED has plenty of cash (there's an RNS confirming the building sale completion by the way, £76m consideration I believe) to get through and as long as there's a steady return to shopping by people may post a decent revenue and return to a modest profit this year.
As you say, it's priced to fail, evidence that it's not going to fail will send this north. Until then, we may be stuck here or lower.
Just looking at the 3 years charts on this and it is like a downhill ski slope.
Get out tomorrow, bung the money into Bohoo for the recovery over the next few weeks. Definitely a quicker way of making money that staying long and strong here (funny how that phrase is only ever used by investors in companies whose share price is down down down).
Anyway, not having a pop - just trade the facts and don't fall in love/hate with a share. GLA.
Now you're talking Knowbody, absolutely they are on a mission to lose all investors money as quickly as possible so are piling it into TED! Previous years where they made decent returns are a disgrace to TOSCA, and they must surely have earned from their previous money making mistakes and now flooding in here to lose it all! Obviously this is tongue in cheek, but i do also accept that Tosca aren't the almighty, fact is they must see value and a turnaround. I say again, this is priced to fail
Funds throwing away money - You could be right if you are referring to the hedge funds that are shorting this...
No, it was a firm placement - everybody including the BOD, major investors and founder paid 75p a share. It's all in the prospectus and previous RNS.
No way given TOSCA's purchases before, during and after the placing that they are in profit. Far from it.
Hence why it's strange. If the company was in such distress why do they continue to buy at such a volume?
Two reasons for my money:
1. They believe a return to growth and profit for TED is possible in a reasonable time frame
2. They have an eye to a hostile take over (or take over from a 3rd party.
3rd reason introduced today:
3. They are deliberately throwing money away, which apparently it's well understood and documented that funds do (someone else on this BB's suggestion)
With a current mkt cap of circa £133m they only have to make £13.3m for a pe ratio of 10. I think they will be making a lot more than that in future years. I think they are well placed to come through this period and do extremely well. The problem is that these boards are filled with traders rather than investors and to them one week is long term. Either you believe in the brand and the future turnaround or you don't. I very much doubt investors who took up shares in the oversubscribed placing are selling them at the current price. It seems as though a second outbreak and a No deal is priced in to the market but if these don't occur we will get a V shaped recovery and this could easily double from this current price imho.
Well they haven't taken up forecasted holdings. I would be very surprised if institutions were given retail prices for big stakes in the company. They may be sitting on a net profit even after buying on the open market.
Interestingly, this was the predicted breakdown (in the prospectus) following the placement, but I think that excludes claw back re the excess shares that were available.
Ray: 29,087,107 - 17.0 %
Tosca:48,743,866 - 28.5 %
Threadneedle: 21,188,799 - 12.4 %
Schroders: 24,308,167 - 14.2 %
Affiliated Managers: 2,607,518 - 1.5 %
HL: 2,561,299 - 1.5 %
Most recent breakdown of major shareholders (although TOSCA announced yesterday they had added another 1%.
Toscafund Asset Management LLP - 44,321,277 24.0%
Raymond Stuart Kelvin - 21,744,230 11.8%
Schroder Investment Management Ltd. - 20,296,475 11.0%
Threadneedle Asset Management Ltd. - 17,900,510 9.70%
Norges Bank Investment Management - 5,356,055 2.90%
Baillie Gifford & Co. 2,223,878 1.20%
Invesco Advisers, Inc. 1,907,210 1.03%
T. Rowe Price International Ltd. 1,514,514 0.82%
Artemis Investment Management LLP 1,392,966 0.75%
Wasatch Advisors, Inc. 1,376,688 0.75%
Then you raise a good point.
The only concern would be then that a deal was struck for a placement of shares at a lower price and and agreed shareholding had to be purchased on the open market.
This point is worth considering. Can anyone else add to this?
"Did Tosca pay 75p for their placement of shares?"
As far as I'm aware.
But they have a much higher average, given they held from much higher and continued to buy on the open market after the placing was announced.
Did Tosca pay 75p for their placement of shares?
Did Tosca pay 75p for there placement of shares?
I invested in this share for long term. I believe that the share and company could have good prospects if the board makes good use of the money and if the they apply a good strategy . It may take 1-2 years to see really good results. It seems to me that the problem are sellers who fear for the worst and this drives the share Down. Hopefully this panick of selling will stop soon or the SP will go down more.
Well someone on another BB seems to suggest (with no evidence) that the shares are going to zero. Another debenhams by the sounds of it. Failed rescue followed by wipe out.
Can someone explain this.
They've been buying since before the open offer completed - circa 140p, participated in the offer and are continuing to pick up more. I initially, saw it as a positive, then someone suggested there may be intent to lose money, which I find hard to believe. Of course they don't always call these things right, but I'm sure they have greater oversight that we do.
Which is it?
Ninja - scaremongering would be to misrepresent a situation to scare people. Where as what I have said is accurate if not likely. As for your deramping comment - my only reply is that I'm currently holding myself. As has been said before that cash has already been valued and spoken for. I am sorry for not demonstrating faith.
Scaremongering, thanks ocean, people need to invest in this on its own merits. Market cap is £146m, is that what TED is worth? Yes, to the penny right now. But one has to consider that they've raised £75m cash to support a restructure, there is a potential sale and leaseback occurring (think that's another £70m odd but can't recall exact figure). So cash equal to market cap if that comes off, cool. This share is currently priced to fail, if you think TED will fail then don't invest. If it doesn't and can churn a decent profit then it will be valued higher than today IMO. Thanks for the deramp though, everyone sell and put your cash under the mattress!
I believe many are looking at previous trading prices and believing the will be a recovery. IMO that is a mistaken point of view. There are now 4 times as many shares in issue the pre issue. That isn't just a to rights issue, it's a capitalisation of the company. The shares are simply not worth what they use to be. Thinking it traded at 400p then suffered a loss of confidence to fall to 100p doesn't make 100p fair value. A fair value of this share is 75p on a good day. But as with the initial sell off stemming from lock down this will now be sold off to reflect the new market conditions. The new fair price for this stock is 75p I see a sell off on confidence to 50p. 75p isn't discounted it's fair value - that's what a rights issue it by definition. There are too many people here believing the share price will rise on days with more buyers than sellers - again another mistaken belief. If people submit sell orders before the are lapped up by buyers demand for this stock will have no influence. 50p here we come. That is a discounted price, on a good day.
21st of July.
Any chance of a trading update or some form of update do you think?
If not, when anybody know when we should expect a trading update?
I haven't seen any consistency in previous dates really.
just have to grit your teeth like i'm doing. i won't be selling. defo won't be selling tomorrow Friday so i may as well not look at SP for a day and have a long weekend. my plan here is to hold for longer and not get tempted to sell on the first bounce etc.
"i once followed Thomas cook down, kept averaging and ignored the signs (got burned)"
TED is nothing like Thomas Cook.
However, the continuous drop is starting to become a concern. No doubt some will appear and say, well what did you expect. I expected 75p, but to drift below seems a bit extreme, given the II purchases. I wonder if we'll see an after-hours holding RNS today.
Perhaps someone could explain why funds buy to lose money. Everything else might make more sense. Starting to wish I hadn't taken up my open offer shares or at least had sold them when they arrived.
@downbutnotout every additional post you make, they're dropping it by another 1p
fat chance though. only 3 mins left to close.
i'll be happy if we can get to 76p before close.