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Well no as it depends what the remainder is and how reasonable that NAV is calculated on unlisted stocks.
Holders, watchers and the newish manager know theres a ton of absolute dross making up that published NAV in this. Hence the large discount. Large cough, industrial heat, takes most of the flak as it's so ludicrous but there are others.
...it appears I've got my research wrong but I still think SUPP could be the best way to play Oxford Nanopore's IPO. If both SUPP and IPO's portfolios are roughly 25% invested in Oxford Nanopore then discount to NAV enters the equation. Or does it?
You do your research and I'll do mine! Good luck!
I'm so glad you've discovered the reply button...
With respect to 'I now appear to be addressing myself', you do have a curious perspective - i.e. keener to play the man rather than the ball.
If owning only 4% of Nanopore (much less than say IPO) is going to make SUPP fly, then good luck with that (you'll need it).
I now appear to be addressing myself! Rest assured I'm not clever or devious enough for "ultra-low-level ad-hominem" attacks. But I'm 100% sure SUPP will rocket because of its holding in Oxford Nanopore! Pleased to see it's currently # 22 Top Riser.
This posting seeks to demonstrates poor chatroom/internet etiquette and usage. There are various aspects to this:
- breaking threads, so that people can't work out why anything is being written (why not use the 'reply' link?).
- putting peoples' usernames in the subject line (see what I did above?), which in some cases might be regarded as an ultra-low-level ad-hominem attack, but more usually is simply an odd way of doing things.
Oh, yeah, good luck to all investors in SUPP. It may or may not be a good investment at current levels. However, that won't be anything to do with, e.g., 'Mr market' not realising how much Oxford Nanopore is held.
Woodford certainly wasn't "a complete idiot" but he did make some catastrophic errors. If only he'd structured his funds as Investment Trusts instead of Unit Trusts he would have avoided a lot of his problems. And made less money for himself short-term but probably much more long-term. There's an excellent book about him: Built On A Lie by Owen Walker.
Thanks for the welcome. My view is a simple one. The underlying assets are still there and , in the main, operating. Sure, illiquid assets take longer to divest but , if the asset is viable then there will be a buyer out there.
I dont know Woodford but i assume that he wasnt a complete idiot and that each company had some attractive features. Those features, in the main, will still be there irrespective of the assets current valuation.
Welcome aboard the good ship SUPP! If Mr Market ever realises what SUPP is really worth we could be in for a nice little earner!
Meanwhile, every day punters are selling.
Apologies for calling you an idiot but how is it possible to engage with anyone who writes "I’d love this to be true, but it seems so unlikely that I haven’t bothered to check it in detail. " I don't think I'm clever but at least I can be bothered to do some research!
I have been watching this share fkr a couple of months and finally reached the conclusion that the business is in pretty good shape and the potential is there. Consequently , I have dipped a toe in the water and bought a small chunk. I will carry on monitoring it and top up at the right time.
Good luck all.
"SUPP is a hidden gem! I'm tired of leading horses to water..."
Some people are so stupid, they think they're clever. Your abusive 'Idiot!' has been referred to the moderators.
"the market will generally be efficient enough to factor-in whatever valuation number seems most realistic, particularly *if* it’s for a big holding." The Market often gets it very wrong! Or else why would takeover offers be at multiples of what the Market values the company? Maybe the day after the Oxford Nanopore IPO the SUPP SP will rocket 550%?
IP Group owns 15% of Oxford Nanopore's shares. The fair value of £340.3m for this stake, as a percentage of *IP's* overall portfolio valuation of £1,162.7m, comes to around 29% of the portfolio.
“…according to my research (which I have temporarily mislaid), SUPP owns 21% of Oxford Nanopore…” -I’d love this to be true, but it seems so unlikely that I haven’t bothered to check it in detail. For one thing, at end-2019 the accounts state explicitly that SUPP owned 4% of Nanopore. In the intervening period, SUPP has had well-publicised problems, and Nanopore has been raising capital from various investors. What are the chances that SUPP has increased its stake 5x in that period? (I’m happy for my reasoning here to be shown to be erroneous by the way)
“… if you apply IPO's valuation of Oxford Nanopore to SUPP's holding it works out at 168% of SUPP's current Mkt. Cap…” – that *might*be true, I suppose, but I haven’t bothered checking. Two points that I’d make:
- The people that do these kinds of valuations draw upon the same data, use similar techniques, and (most importantly) watch each other’s published results. The primary data point is whatever price at which capital was raised recently.
- Even if IP’s and SUPP’s valuation numbers for ON were dramatically out of line, the market will generally be efficient enough to factor-in whatever valuation number seems most realistic, particularly *if* it’s for a big holding.
Apologies if I'm the one who's confused but I think you meant IPO not SUPP.
If I remember correctly, according to my research (which I have temporarily mislaid), SUPP owns 21% of Oxford Nanopore and they value the holding at 25% of their portfolio. Meanwhile, IPO owns 15% of Oxford Nanopore and, according to their valuation, it's currently 27.7% of IPO's Market. Cap. However, if you apply IPO's valuation of Oxford Nanopore to SUPP's holding it works out at 168% of SUPP's current Mkt. Cap. Good luck!
"... a fair value of £340.3m for the Group’s 15.0% undiluted shareholding..." The 15% refers to the percentage of Oxford Nanopore's shares held. The fair value of £340.3m for this stake, as a percentage of SUPP's overall portfolio valuation of £1,162.7m, comes to around 29%.
I can assure you that there is no confusion in my mind as regards the above. I can't comment about anyone else though.
You're right to be cautious but you are also confused. IPO clearly state: "Our valuation of Oxford Nanopore at 31 December 2020 reflects several factors including the company’s strong performance in 2020,
which is described above, and evidence of strong investor interest in the company. In terms of financing, we considered recent investment offers received by the company, and the potential impact and timing of an IPO. As a result, we have concluded on a fair value of £340.3m for the Group’s 15.0% undiluted shareholding, an increase of 29% during the year, resulting in an unrealised fair value gain of £76.5m." As for the future valuation of Oxford Nanopore I note that WISE is valued at £8.8bn so miracles can happen!
As I wrote previously, I’m inclined to treat gosh-look-at-this, puff-piece articles about IPOs in the press with a high degree of caution. Investment banks have an incentive to 'talk up' the price of a prospective IPO, to curry favour or win business from the company, just as estate agents will b*llsh*t about how much your house might be worth, if you were to use their services.
Don't believe any Nanopore IPO numbers until you see them, and even then be cautious.
I believe it's a matter of public record (see https://www.theguardian.com/business/2021/mar/30/oxford-nanopore-to-float-on-london-stock-exchange) that the largest holder of Nanopore is IP Group. From the IP Group annual accounts, Nanopore is 29% of their portfolio. It's 21% of the SUPP portfolio.
It would appear that IP has more exposure to Nanopore.
At best, I envisage a 550% increase in the SP after the Oxford Nanopore IPO but WTFDIK?
...of Oxford Nanopore's forthcoming IPO with the idiotic comment that Neil Woodford's previous investment in the company might taint it! But a possible £7bn valuation was also mentioned - do the sums!
Down 7.33% this week! Stupid loss of appetite for risk? I'll stick to fundamentals and I'm happy SUPP is my second largest holding after ZIOC and 12% of my PF. We shall see! Only worry is if Markets plunge then Oxford Nanopore will postpone their IPO...
Several hefty buys yesterday and the SP appeared to fall 4.75% - very tempted to go all in here! I see 200% upside at least but WTFDIK?
Stale Woodford investors in need of cash? I see very little downside from here and a very healthy upside so I've increased my holding by 97%.
Sold my holding in IPO to buy SUPP on the grounds it has a bigger steak in Oxford Nanopore : 21% as opposed to 15% and it's 25% of the PF. I have no idea what % of IPO's PF it is due to a user-unfriendly website. Onwards and upwards! Should Oxford Nanopore go bananas and be worth £7bn the SUPP SP will follow suit.