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The drifting of the SP implies to me that an offer from Takeda is becoming less likely. Not getting a good feeling. Hate to ask the question, but where does the SP drop to if Takeda say 'no thanks'? My guess �32-�33.
These aren�t late buys - they are delayed reported trades under LSE rules. The best guide to tomorrow is the NASDAQ price of the ADR...up slightly from the U.K. close. ATB. Scfc
Just looking at some of the large amount of shares bought at the end of trading 1.6 million shares bought i hope this signals a firm takeover bid this week maybe tomorrow.
I guess not ;-(
Analysts say Japanese firm stalking drugs giant Shire could launch 'credible offer' and win support from shareholders within weeks Read more: http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/news/article-5589219/Firm-stalking-Shire-launch-credible-offer-win-support-shareholders-weeks.html#ixzz5C5fbOby1 Follow us: @MailOnline on Twitter | DailyMail on Facebook
i think what is much more interesting is who else is in the wings waiting to swoop - if anyone at all. i was recently in nxg and the press was hot with "multiple" bids which never materialised ... I feel that SHP has been on the radar for a while and now with this possible bid, it's back en vogue with potential suitors ... time will tell ...
Well, I think the market read a little more into his comments than him simply confirming previous company statements. Fascinating stuff but I�ve still not seen or read anything credible that makes this financially viable given their continued repetition of strict investment criteria and maintaining all what this entails given the $10bn+ differential in market cps. Can anyone offer s virw on how this would work, esp if �40+ us being suggested. ATB, Scfc
Takeda Statement Regarding Press Reports Cambridge, Mass. and Osaka, Japan, 6 April, 2018 Takeda Pharmaceutical Company Limited ("Takeda") notes media reports about comments attributed to Takeda's CEO Christophe Weber regarding the company's possible offer for Shire plc ("Shire"). Takeda confirms that Mr Weber's comments were, however, aligned with the statements in our previous press releases. As set out in the press releases "Takeda Statement Regarding Shire plc" on March 28, 2018 in English and "Takeda's official statement on Shire's stock fluctuation" on March 29, 2018 in Japanese, clearly defined strategic and financial objectives are core to Takeda's disciplined approach to acquisitions, including in relation to its dividend policy and credit rating, which are well-established. Any potential offer for Shire, if made, would have to align with this strict investment criteria. Please refer to the published press releases for details. In accordance with Rule 2.6(a) of the Code, Takeda must, by no later than 5.00 p.m. (London time) on 25 April 2018, either announce a firm intention to make an offer, subject to conditions or pre-conditions if relevant, for Shire in accordance with Rule 2.7 of the Code or announce that it does not intend to make an offer for Shire, in which case the announcement will be treated as a statement to which Rule 2.8 of the Code applies. This deadline will only be extended with the consent of the UK Panel on Takeovers and Mergers (the "Panel") in accordance with Rule 2.6(c) of the Code.
Hope so
...
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Well, I remain to be convinced. Also the article was clearly written before it�s SP fell fiurther today as it notes �a limited fall� since the announcement - Takeda�s SP is down about 11% since the announcement so ithe market cap is trading at c$11bn below Shire�s. Interesting to see how it all plays out... ATB, Scfc
After Takeda revealed last week that it was eyeing a Shire buy, industry watchers expressed skepticism that the company could pull it off. Now, though, some analysts like the Japanese drugmaker�s chances. In a Thursday meeting, Takeda told analysts it was �willing to push its debt higher� in order to seal the deal, Bernstein�s Wimal Kapadia wrote to clients. And in light of that fact, he now sees a potential transaction as �more likely than not.� �We think the deal is likely because there is willing buyer, willing sellers and room to meet both sides� expectations,� he wrote. Shire shares have been struggling hard; new hemophilia competition from Roche has prevented them from bouncing back after a less-than-stellar Baxalta buy that left the company �too levered to do anything itself� as far as M&A goes. But while �Shire stand-alone struggles with negative earnings revisions and lack of catalysts in the near-term,� Takeda can afford to wait for the tide to turn. �The objective for Takeda is 2025 positioning,� Kapadia pointed out. Of course, just because Shire shareholders are open to a sale doesn�t mean there�s overlap between the price they want and what Takeda�s willing to lay down, he noted. According to a Bernstein survey, investors are hoping for �42/$175 per share to kick off negotiations and �45/$190 to ink an agreement�as well as less than 50% in Takeda shares. Other analysts had previously voiced doubts that Takeda could afford a Shire buy after its interest announcement sank shares but sent Shire's soaring. But the way Kapadia sees things, Takeda can probably get it done thanks to a willingness to go to 5x leverage and the opportunity to issue shares locally, which would reduce the shares issued to Shire investors. �We believe the local market will be willing to absorb more Takeda stock given the positive local headlines and limited share movement down since the deal has been announced,� Kapadia wrote. Meanwhile, the pharma intends to drum up some extra cash with a sale of its Brazil-based pharma unit, Multilab Ind�stria e Com�rcio de Produtos Farmac�uticos, Reuters reported. Takeda plans to offload the business to Novamed Fabrica��o de Produtos Farmac�uticos in June at an undisclosed price.
The market cap between the 2 companies is now around $11bn...but in favour of the target! It will need to be some equity issue if they aren�t going to worsen net debt significantly! Answers on a post card please...ATB, Scfc
Takeda SP fell 5% this morning on anticipation of an imminent bid for Shire plc.
Majore Shire shareholders stated that they would seriously consider starting bids for negotiation around �42 and would accept �45 to close.
Scratch that...looks like big(ish) falls on futures with FTSE �futures� over 60+ points down so far. Might open in the 36s now unless we see a reversal. ATB, Scfc
Looking like low 37s, Asian markets permitting. ATB, Scfc
Given that the US had a good finish, will the open tomorrow be in the 37s or lower?
Redtom, “massive” would be an understatement! But any massive dilution surely wouldn’t go down well but if not, net debt would be significantly increased...I just can’t see how it can work on any angle personally but as you say they must have thought this through, surely?!? The way it has played out (albeit forced by U.K. Takeover rules) seemingly somewhat prematurely hasn’t helped the already difficult maths either! I think the market is struggling with it as well given the big ups and downs just today! ATB, Scfc
Scfc, I've been thinking about this one too. I can only assume that they would intent to do a massive equity raise (ie rights issue to raise cash specifically for purchase). This would help maintain the A1 rating and net debt ratio. Maintaining the dividend policy would be more challenging as a shed load more shares in place. But it is possible. Primarily this will come down to the big shareholders in Takeda. If they have faith in this deal they will put up the cash. If they are resistant, then the deal is difficult. Alternatively they cut out the middle man and structure the deal as mostly equity swap. Creates the same net position, just different shareholders. I don't know how much debt they could take on and still maintain both their A1 status and 3 times EBITDA but this would only pay a modest proportion of a $55bn deal. I'm still hoping that they make a bid but the maths looks difficult. However, surely, they have already worked all of this out otherwise their M&A dept needs shooting! Based on my previous life working on M&A deals, they will have extensive models covering every variable and scenario.
Really scratching my head to reconcile the statements of Takeda on it keeping its financial discipline (and in turn maintaining its current credit rating A1), maintaining its dividend policy, only allowing net debt to go up to 3.0 (from 1.8) in the S-T and perhaps the biggest issue that they are now c$8bn smaller by market cap...with its apparent strong desire/ambition to takeover Shire in its entirety. ATB, Scfc
1. Takeda will be disciplined in its approach to the Shire acquisition (in finances, purchase price, etc.). 2. This possible acquisition is just one option being considered to achieve the Vision 2025 strategy and does not represent a change in strategy. Takeda has sensed some confidence in the progress it has made thus far toward achieving the Vision 2025 strategy. 3. Acquisition of Shire would allow Takeda to achieve the Vision 2025 strategy sooner. The two companies are a good fit in sales by field and country or region. For example, 30% of Takeda�s pipeline drugs are for rare diseases, so there are good synergies. 4. Takeda is exploring the acquisition of the entire company (Shire plc) and is not considering purchasing only some businesses or assets. 5. Takeda is not exploring this possibility simply for tax savings through a tax inversion or head office relocation. The goal would only be to become a global pharma business that is based in Japan. 6. Takeda is looking to maintain its current credit rating (e.g., Moody�s Japan A1). No change will be made in the dividend policy (�180 DPS). 7. In financial discipline, Takeda indicated that even if the net debt/EBITDA multiple rose above 3x over the near term (currently at approx. 1.8x for Takeda), Takeda would work to quickly bring this down to around 2x. 8. Takeda will make an announcement in accordance with the UK�s Panel on Takeovers and Mergers regulations by 5:00 p.m. on 25 April (UK time) and will announce by the same date whether it will submit an offer for Shire.
This probably explains the jump this morning... “Shares in Shire (LON:SHP) have jumped in London in today’s session, following comments by Credit Suisse which have revived hopes for a bid by Japan’s Takeda. The Japanese group confirmed last week that it was mulling over a potential bid for the London-listed rare disease specialist. As of 10:07 BST, Shire’s share price had added 3.32 percent to 3,719.50p, outperforming the broader market rally which has seen the benchmark FTSE 100 index gain 1.23 percent to 7,120.46 points so far today. The group’s shares have lost just over a fifth of their value over the past year, as compared with a near three-percent fall in the Footsie. Takeda bid hopes WebFG News reported today that Credit Suisse had said that an overnight analyst call regarding Takeda had suggested that the Japanese drugmaker’s CEO Christophe Weber was strongly committed to making an offer for Shire. “Feedback yesterday was that investors were worried the meeting might be vague and ambiguous, but from the initial feedback the tone was anything but,” the analysts pointed out, as quoted by the newswire”.