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It is easy to be positive about Quindell these days with a strong position in telematics, a substantial sum of money in the bank and more cash coming in over 18 months for NIHL from a credible source. That should put the SP anywhere between £1.20 and £1.50. But potential investors that don't yet own Quindell shares will look at these points as hurdles to jump, with the posibility of at least one fall: 1) No NIHL cash has yet been paid and until the first payment comes through this can be regarded as a risk. Also, 'unbeleivers' can point at SGH and say why is their share price still hovering at half its value four months ago? 2) The Capital Refund issue is becoming a thorn in the side of Quindell partly because the BoD have not given real evidence about timescale and amount. If they said a £1/share and by end 2015 that would be something but any wording provided has a degree of ambiguity about it. 3) Nothing has yet been provided about our estimed subsidiaries performance forecast. If sales and profits were reasonable then something could be said to steady the waters of speculation, but saying nothing is causing the dark side of speculation to keep popping up its ugly head. 4) If and when the Capital Refund occurs then many possible investors may then say Quindell is underfinanced and not financially equipped to handle the subsidiaries into growth and profitability. Back to Square One, a fire sale. 5) The continued FSA investigation comes up in EVERY publication article out there. Whilst many (incl me) are confident the result will not harm Quindell, many possible investors will say it is a big unquantified risk. On balance, this is why the SP hovers around a £1. Someone suggested a Court Hearing on (2) will occur on 2nd Dec, but I have not heard anything official on this. It may result in a decision on the day, or it may result in a deferred decision until an SFO conclusion, due its unknown financial implications. Only time will tell as each of these issues are resolved. Meanwhile, I am sure that are excellent BoD are quietly getting on with, at least, resolving (3) which is where the companies future lies. Quindell has to PROVE that it is moving into becoming a well run business and to achieve that ALL of the above has to be resolved. My bet is that it will all be resolved favourably but it will take time. Anyone arguing against this sentiment is probably a shorter in waiting. ATB, P
Phronist, one point of fact: the FSA (sic) have ceased their investigation. The SFO took up the baton.
Apologies addicknt, I believe you are correct SFO - Serious Fraud Office. It is a shame they cannot carry out their business in a more timely fashion. Or provide reasons as to why delays are occurring. ATB, P
Phrontrist you seem to think logically and your posts are nicely balanced so I'm sure that you are open to debate in a normal "sitting on the fence" perspective, so I'd be interested in your opinion of this: Im sure we can agree that the market cap of quindell is pretty much the same as the capital repayment yet the market will not or cannot for some reason take into consideration the apparent value of quindells assets, work in progress and future nihl income etc... But why? We know himex and Ingenie are currently loss making and also that they are the bulk of what we have left after the disposal of the professional services division. I can't help that think we only have a pile of cash and not much else. What do you think?
One area politicians really annoy me is that at every election all parties are bleating 'oh we love business and will reduce red tape blah blah blah'. But red tape get worse as time passes. More government department incompetence, poor decisions, long timescales, no progress reports, etc. What has been done about the detrimental effects of shorting? Nothing. Not even a Report or White Paper. I won't even start on the shoddy Cons way of supporting the steel industry. ATB, P
jadwales, I think the five reasons I have just given. Put yourself in the shoes of an employee fund manager. The top requirement is to invest a clients funds safely. All other requirements are subsidiary to this eg capital growth, good dividends, global ambitions, whatever. Safety comes first. You don't get fired for a 5% or even 10% drop in a year, but £2.50 down to £1.00 over the last year or so will get you fired, or at least moved to Head of Tea Making. Owning Quindell shares is likely to have got a lot of people fired, to be blunt. Quindell has succeeded in overcoming a near certain collapse, not unusual on AIM. That is good for us PI's but not good enough for Prodessional II's. The company has to resolve all five issues I listed below to clear the road for growing II take up. Full Stop. Once this has been achieved it is likely the SP will rocket, since the management have not been standing still for the last four months. I am hoping for a spectacular revival, but it does depend (in the end) on a substantial Sales Order Book, and we have no information on this or the respective Sales Directors actual potential client names for new business over the next year. It would not be normal for a company to issue such information (except Rob Terry) and so we have to wait. There will be a moment when owners of Quindell shares will get up one morning, look at the SP on-line and scream with joy. When will that day be? I wish I knew. ATB, P
Thank you for your reply phrontrist. There's a lot of hurdles to jump over and whilst possible there's a rather steep mountain to climb after that. I've been here a long while and I've looked at the share price both with joy and despair in that time. I find it hard to see the light at the end of the tunnel. No news is not good news at the moment and like you I sit and wait. Meanwhile too many people on here say so many barmy blind things like there's nothing at all wrong. It's nice to have a balanced poster here like yourself that looks at the entire picture and not just the pretty bits. Thanks dude:)
There is a possible further reason for SP reluctance to rise. On this very LSE Site it says Rob Terry still owns 46,900,000 shares in Quindell. Almost 47 million shares!!! That is over 10% of the company. Obviously he won't do anything to damage the business on purpose but he has shown the capacity to damage a business by selfish actions. II's will not like this. I watch IMTK and DAN every day, as well as Quindell. The founder of IMTK says he has never had a (proper?) converstaion with RT even though RT has moved in on a substantial amount of his business. Has RT moved his shares around so that his 47mil dosen't show? It is a dead cert that when he started issuing his Reports and the like on Quindell a few months ago, that he had plans on getting back in, even a funded takeover using Quob. A dominant dodgy shareholder always holds the SP down. ATB, P
jadwales I am confident that our new BoD is strong and suitable to handle any and all outstanding issues on Quindell. It just takes time, with many issues not being directly resolvable by them (eg SFO). This is the stuff that ambitious Dirtectors make their reputations on. They will succeed. ATB, P
Phrontist I thought rob Terry had sold out below the threshold at which he would have to declare his holding as such just before he left quindell. I can't remember what the threshold was exactly but my memory is telling me it's 3% for some reason, but like you say if he's back up to 10% he must have used quob as a vehicle to increase his holding. It tickles me that anyone would look at him twice after innovation group and then quindell. He must carry a pendulum around in his pocket to hypnotise people into investing their hard earned dosh with him. I don't know enough about the new board individually or as a team to comment on how well they handle things, Im hoping for the best there:)
jadwales Personally, I would like to see a Forensic Accountant produce a Report with all of RT's share ownerships tracked from Day One of this business starting, even going back to the so called 'golf club'. It should be comparatively easy to do since the Share Registrar will have that information. I have no idea how to get hold of it. It is possible that the SFO are at this very minute putting a bit of time into this question for their own deliberations. I hope that they issue a public report for us all to consider. Last November he was accused of using his shareholding as a lever for cash through some USA company, but I have no idea what actually happened. However, the SP did drop to under 30p at one stage and he may have taken advantage of that opportunity. I have no idea, I would like to know. A shareholder is entitled to know what a Director is doing regarding the companies share transactions. Stock Ex Law. I have suggested herein in the past that IF RT has transgressed then his punishment should be forfeitsure of his Quindell shareholding. IMHO that would give an instant 10% to 20% SP rise. If it transpires that RT has done nothing wrong then I sincerely apologise. Muddy waters need clearing to see the tru light. ATB, P
I like your rhetoric phrontist. I can't disagree with anything you say. I'm sure the serious fraud office outcome won't be kept secret. It's not like quindell is government or any of its branches so I'm sure it will be made public for us all to read:)
Thank you jadwales. The SFO issue must be a pain for Quindell Management, and their approach of 'we take as long as we need, or want' is quite damaging to a business. A few months ago I stupidly believed that their requests and investigations would be resolved by now. The reason for believing in a quick result is based on poor old Quindell Management having just completed the PwC Investigation and a Full 2015 Audit. All necessary paperwork must have still been warm when the SFO knocked on the door. My hope for a quicker-than-normal solution with SFO is also based on The Right Honourable Lord Howard, a Senior Non-Executive Director of Quindell. He has experience of Government Department machinations that must be second-to-none. ATB, P