Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
London South East prides itself on its community spirit, and in order to keep the chat section problem free, we ask all members to follow these simple rules. In these rules, we refer to ourselves as "we", "us", "our". The user of the website is referred to as "you" and "your".
By posting on our share chat boards you are agreeing to the following:
The IP address of all posts is recorded to aid in enforcing these conditions. As a user you agree to any information you have entered being stored in a database. You agree that we have the right to remove, edit, move or close any topic or board at any time should we see fit. You agree that we have the right to remove any post without notice. You agree that we have the right to suspend your account without notice.
Please note some users may not behave properly and may post content that is misleading, untrue or offensive.
It is not possible for us to fully monitor all content all of the time but where we have actually received notice of any content that is potentially misleading, untrue, offensive, unlawful, infringes third party rights or is potentially in breach of these terms and conditions, then we will review such content, decide whether to remove it from this website and act accordingly.
Premium Members are members that have a premium subscription with London South East. You can subscribe here.
London South East does not endorse such members, and posts should not be construed as advice and represent the opinions of the authors, not those of London South East Ltd, or its affiliates.
joatmon you can check all the RNS on the London Stock Exchange here.
https://www.londonstockexchange.com/stock/PRSM/blue-prism-group-plc/analysis
Does the other offerer Vista - own shares and if yes why have they not been listed on the LSE?
It seems odd to me that they are contemplating an offer but have no stake?
Offeror's are required to disclose position in the target (form 8) within 10 business days of being identified an Offeror.
TPG filed form 8 and disclosed that it has no position. Havent seen the form 8 from Vista yet.
Tikvah Management LLC just bought
1,123,261
1.2%
I don't understand the SP drop.
I thought in the RNS TGP does have stock, they were lowering their shorts. I need to look later.
It looks like they are either trying to tease out a first bid or trying to pick up shares. I can't find any other known reason for today's dip.
It's miles too cheap and shouldn't even be in the predicament of several private equity looking to buy it at these levels.
The RNS read as posturing to me through a negotiation process , We have two weeks to run until TPG or another need to ' get off the pot '
TPG is already identified as an offeror so its simply disclosing its position as required by the code. They dont own any PRSM stock per the disclosure, so this does not mean anything. If anything this is a negative signal as you would have thought TPG would acquire some stock in the open market at a lower price before making an offer for all PRSM stock at a premium.
8.1 DISCLOSURE BY AN OFFEROR
(a) An offeror must make a public Opening Position Disclosure:
(i) after the announcement that first identifies it as an offeror; and
(ii) after the announcement that first identifies a competing
securities exchange offeror.
(b) An offeror must also make a public Dealing Disclosure if it deals
in any relevant securities of the offeree company or any securities exchange offeror during an offer period for its own account or for the account of discretionary investment clients.
Not sure if its a regulatory requirement to state the opening position. Looks like an offer is in the making
Has TPG made an offer?
https://www.londonstockexchange.com/news-article/market-news/form-8-opd-tpg-partners-viii/15134487
Opening position disclosure by TPG - No shares owned
https://otp.tools.investis.com/clients/uk/blue_prism1/rns/regulatory-story.aspx?cid=2517&newsid=1508501
@PrettyWild gets it! Even if the valuation multiple stays depressed at 4x sales, the company will still grow 33% per year between now and 2027 if it maintains its modest 10% market share. Even if it loses market share, it will still grow 20%-25% per year, and the share price will rise in lockstep. That's the worst case.
On the other hand, if the sales multiple goes from 4x back up to 10x sales, the share price goes to 250% of today's price......and then even higher when that 10x multiple is against a sales number that is 20%-33% higher 12 months from now. The math is so easy, a caveman could do it.
TLDR: The worst case results in a higher share price. The best case results in a WAY higher share price. ;)
Good afternoon Latpulldown :-)))
I would love to also be a fly on the wall haha.
But I don't mind if no offer goes through as I'm holding Long, robotics will go up 33% every year so I will keep it for a few years. :-) xxxx
@joatmon, if a deal goes through, it has to be significantly higher than today's share price. The only reason the share price could be settling below a price that the sale would occur is due to the uncertainty that a deal does not get done, and the market reacts negatively to it.
Why am I not scared? Because either there's maybe 20%-40% more upside and investors make a quick profit if a sale takes place......or management declines all offers giving investors a chance to make the full potential return of the business over a longer period of time. By my estimation, that's a 300%-500% return over the next several years.
I originally invested to make the larger return over a multi-year period, so I wouldn't be upset if a deal doesn't go through. That said, my cost basis is low enough that making a quick 20%-40% from here in under two weeks time isn't terrible either.
Tiny volume so far today - does not signify any trend except every one is sitting on their hands for now.
Of course there could be last minute off the books trades etc.
With the sp settled around £12 does this mean the market sees limited upside (10-20%) unless a new bidder arrives?
Good afternoon Pretty Wild. Nobody has thrown in the towel yet so we wait for the first bid to materialise. The £12 level makes it interesting.
The interesting bit will be how the BoD play it. If a first offer comes forward do they decline it and say it significantly undervalues the company prompting possibly a higher offer from party 2. Or do they wait for any 2nd offer and then say both undervalue the company.
We patiently sit and wait for the first move.
I'd love to be a fly on the wall in the boardrooms of our main competitors in the US.
RNSs looks all good over on the London Stock Exchange.
They are buying
Reducing shorts
Extending Long position.
50% for me, even if a deal fails to materialize we won't see sub £11 again, R/R is very good
@PrettyWild, given that the share price was flat despite the lopsided volume, you have to think that the 23M buy on Friday sopped up the shares from all of the weak hands like a dry mop in a bucket of water. My instinct tells me that the remaining holders will be much more reluctant to part with their shares as demand continues to build on the buy side. The result should be a higher share price this week if I were to speculate.
141,448 volume sold
2,023,345 volume bought
That's if LSE is correct.
See what happens tomorrow.
Yes excited AutomationGuru, even if the deal doesn't go through I feel Blue Prism is future proof reading this.
https://www.prnewswire.co.uk/news-releases/blue-prism-sees-growing-demand-for-its-intelligent-automation-across-all-industry-sectors-881314118.html
Blue Prism stock makes up 1/3 of my entire net worth, and I'm still hanging in strong at the current price. Either they get bought out for something higher than the current price, or the deal falls through and the stock organically goes 3x-5x over the next few years. Not seeing a big downside either way. Oh, and if the share price experiences a big drop on a failed deal, I will load up even more.
Under two weeks to go. Who's excited!? :)
Many thanks!
Gain to date: 57.7%
Original buy at 778.5p on 15 July 2021
Speculation is increasing that there will be a bidding war for robotic automation company Blue Prism (PRSM:AIM).
Its shares surged by 32% on 31 August after confirming it was in talks with private equity firms TPG Capital and Vista Equity Partners regarding possible offers for the firm.
Since then, the Financial Times reported that Blue Prism had brought in Qatalyst Partners as financial adviser. It said: ‘The Silicon Valley boutique has a longstanding reputation for shopping tech companies to the highest bidder.’
At the time of writing, TPG and Vista have remained silent, and no details have been revealed as to the terms being discussed.
One of the key attractions we identified for owning Blue Prism shares was the yawning valuation discount that it traded at versus peers. This is still relevant today, despite the subsequent gain in the share price since our July article.
Add in the company’s exposure to a fast-growing industry and installed recurring revenue base and the potential rewards still outweigh the risks.
SHARES SAYS: Anyone who followed our suggestion to buy in July would have made a decent return in a very short time. Readers must decide whether to lock in that profit or hang on in case a bidding war drives the price up further. Shares believes there is more money to be made from sticking with the stock.
I don't have access to this article but looks like Shares Magazine are positive about Blue Prism's prospects:
https://www.sharesmagazine.co.uk/article/get-ready-for-blue-prism-bidding-war