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Certainly looks like it.
Something is definitely going on as we know this is not normal behaviour to see the price going up instead of down !
For a short moment it even touched the dizzy heights of 19+%, yet suddenly dropped back to 9%. Certainly some heavy swings on low low volumes....
Morning bignose.yes,will be interesting to see if the rises do presage some positive news. i suppose the china submission is a given,so if it is positive news on the SPA i would be very pleased,as it might just lead to a US partner to carry it through,which would,i hope give the s/p a significant boost.not holding my breath on the SPA though,so more likely anticipation of china news. we shall see.
Well another 13% rise as I write, plus the other 3 days of constant rises and contrary to my historic expectations. This surely could make one think there has been a leak of positive information (on purpose given the few number of employees in HK who would be willing to risk exposure? ).
It certainly makes one wonder if there will be an update prior to the interims being released. I certainly would play my hand on the China submission (more likely since we then wait 9 month to a year, if not sooner, for a positive result) or the Result of the FDA phase II closure and issuance of a SPA. (mind you, we would still have to wait maybe 3 years before there is any sign of FDA approval which could be even longer given its taken 5 years for the phase II to be closed out. And of course there is still a big IF regarding that one).
Interesting next few days or weeks.
Just found thishttps://www.eurekalert.org/news-releases/996615 now idea if it is significant (i suspect not really at this point) but it's interesting that they do seem to be getting some tie ups.whether it will ever produce any revenue,who knows.cant find much about house of gaia,but does seem that they have a presence in a number of countries.
Afternoon bignose.just got in from a tennis tournament with older grandson,so only just seen the rise.nice to see the s/p have an 8 at the beginning.but as you say,low volume again.could well be anticipation of china news,but anybody's guess as you suggest.still even a small bit of positivity is welcome.
Well another 4 % rise today. I wonder if the expected news on the China submission is causing the MnMs to slowly increase the price. Unfortunately it’s very difficult to call given the large swings on such Low volumes, however. Something’s gotta give sooner or later……but which way will it go…..flip !!!
Yup, not so many shares in circulation now. Just look at yesterdays sp. It dropped nigh on 9% on 10k shares (what was that about 630 squid). It will more than likely drop back tomorrow on a single or cpl of trades. Also, Asian markets today were up quite a lot….so I’m sure that too had some impact.
Doubt it means anything,bothwell.in old money about 2.7 m shares traded,which would equate to about £10k,i think.(I've done the arithmetic in my head so apologies if completely wrong).there were a couple of small buys at 0.74 and 0.77 respectively ,but nothing of any substance.does perhaps indicate how s/p could move on any real news,but of course,we don't ever get any! somewhat apprehensive about the continued lack os SPA news.has it all gone pear shaped? let's hope not. all just my opinion.
What is with the rise today?
You're welcome bignose.glad you have resolved the issue.
Thanks. And that shoed me the reason. My links were to the ERP website which I guess is frozen. I need to update all of them.
Https://www.regentpac.com/ICMServlet/download/13-2782-4531/eAnn_Profit%20warning%20(2023%20interim%20results).pdf morning bignose.hope this works.cheers
Morning The.Italian,
For some reason neither my laptop/desktop or mobile phone shows the profit warning announcement. Maybe you could post a ink here which should give direct location access.
Thanks
Still there on mine,bignose. yes,disappointing that no update.hope we don't have to wait till end of august.
Just checked and there is no new update showing on my PC. Have they changed their mind.....lol
Morning. The.Italian,
I'm afraid that's what I was expecting
Morning all.profit warning out,but no update.the wait goes on.
Yes that was my feeling also,bignose.i found the post t 13.38 by sherclass to be quite incisive and summed up my views very well.could still be great success,but at its current m/c i think the upside is limited.aimo.
I actually sold out too as I feel the announcement far too vague and they are trying to pull the wool over investors eyes regarding the not giving out any real figures. They have done this before. So like you, I wait in the sidelines.
For those of you on the wardrobe side of the gate to Narnia and with a better grasp of numbers than a pre-schooler...
Fosun cites a PE prevalence of 2.3% in its recent Phase I study press release (from a large survey of urban Chinese men, 18-50 years, Niu et al 2023, which captures lifelong and acquired PE).
Let's extend the target population to 18-60 years, being around 455m men in 2023. Adjusting for prevalence and locale, that gives a total urban PE Tx population of 6.843m. Tx seeking is less well-defined but let's assume it's close to that for European and US populations at 10% (almost certainly a generous overestimate).
That brings the accessible population down to 0.639m. From Menarini AP's high-res study of real-life Tx practices, first-line topical Tx prescribing in andrology/sexual medicine centres averages 4%, equating to a current urban topical Tx population of just over 23,000.
You might want to take that 9m in the first year (over 80% uptake by the entire national population of PE sufferers) with a pinch of salt. Let's not forget that in the second full year of sales and with HCP promotion, Recordati could only offload 45,000 cans to wholesalers serving the most developed PE Rx market in the world.
Sexual dysfunction drugs are expressly excluded from the NRDL. Given the experiences of Menarini and Pfizer with regard to price sensitivity, I'd estimate a "viable" out of pocket price of Fortacin/Senstend to be around €30. Factor in the dominance of dapoxetine (alone and in combination with TCM), if ever launched, uptake will be near invisible and glacially slow.
And if you need a further sanity check, just work backwards from the deal terms.
Morning bignose.yes it looks as though it was pretty much priced in.i was concerned that might be the case,as the reaction to the fda approval was very disappointing and it was obvious they were gong to get a us partner in due course,but the s/p was declining in advance.i have sold out now as im not sure the risk reward ratio is now that favourable.no doubt this will prove to be a mistake on my part but i will continue to monitor to see how things develop.if you continue to hold i wish you well and that positive sentiment returns when sales figures are eventually released.
Morning the Italian
I see FUM now have a US agreement with the offshoot of GSK,
It certainly wasn't the explosive rise some were hoping for which could indicate it was already priced in. That said. 4mill up font payment and royalties on sales (no % given) is a little vague.. Certainly could mean not so much confidence on a high %. Of course, only time will tell when looking at the bottom line figure which will indicate if royalty % is good or bad.
Some positivity here which is encouraging for a LTH who is 90% down. Fingers crossed we eventually get a massive uplift and it becomes the promised ’money fountain!’