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Doubt it means anything,bothwell.in old money about 2.7 m shares traded,which would equate to about £10k,i think.(I've done the arithmetic in my head so apologies if completely wrong).there were a couple of small buys at 0.74 and 0.77 respectively ,but nothing of any substance.does perhaps indicate how s/p could move on any real news,but of course,we don't ever get any! somewhat apprehensive about the continued lack os SPA news.has it all gone pear shaped? let's hope not. all just my opinion.
What is with the rise today?
You're welcome bignose.glad you have resolved the issue.
Thanks. And that shoed me the reason. My links were to the ERP website which I guess is frozen. I need to update all of them.
Https://www.regentpac.com/ICMServlet/download/13-2782-4531/eAnn_Profit%20warning%20(2023%20interim%20results).pdf morning bignose.hope this works.cheers
Morning The.Italian,
For some reason neither my laptop/desktop or mobile phone shows the profit warning announcement. Maybe you could post a ink here which should give direct location access.
Thanks
Still there on mine,bignose. yes,disappointing that no update.hope we don't have to wait till end of august.
Just checked and there is no new update showing on my PC. Have they changed their mind.....lol
Morning. The.Italian,
I'm afraid that's what I was expecting
Morning all.profit warning out,but no update.the wait goes on.
Yes that was my feeling also,bignose.i found the post t 13.38 by sherclass to be quite incisive and summed up my views very well.could still be great success,but at its current m/c i think the upside is limited.aimo.
I actually sold out too as I feel the announcement far too vague and they are trying to pull the wool over investors eyes regarding the not giving out any real figures. They have done this before. So like you, I wait in the sidelines.
For those of you on the wardrobe side of the gate to Narnia and with a better grasp of numbers than a pre-schooler...
Fosun cites a PE prevalence of 2.3% in its recent Phase I study press release (from a large survey of urban Chinese men, 18-50 years, Niu et al 2023, which captures lifelong and acquired PE).
Let's extend the target population to 18-60 years, being around 455m men in 2023. Adjusting for prevalence and locale, that gives a total urban PE Tx population of 6.843m. Tx seeking is less well-defined but let's assume it's close to that for European and US populations at 10% (almost certainly a generous overestimate).
That brings the accessible population down to 0.639m. From Menarini AP's high-res study of real-life Tx practices, first-line topical Tx prescribing in andrology/sexual medicine centres averages 4%, equating to a current urban topical Tx population of just over 23,000.
You might want to take that 9m in the first year (over 80% uptake by the entire national population of PE sufferers) with a pinch of salt. Let's not forget that in the second full year of sales and with HCP promotion, Recordati could only offload 45,000 cans to wholesalers serving the most developed PE Rx market in the world.
Sexual dysfunction drugs are expressly excluded from the NRDL. Given the experiences of Menarini and Pfizer with regard to price sensitivity, I'd estimate a "viable" out of pocket price of Fortacin/Senstend to be around €30. Factor in the dominance of dapoxetine (alone and in combination with TCM), if ever launched, uptake will be near invisible and glacially slow.
And if you need a further sanity check, just work backwards from the deal terms.
Morning bignose.yes it looks as though it was pretty much priced in.i was concerned that might be the case,as the reaction to the fda approval was very disappointing and it was obvious they were gong to get a us partner in due course,but the s/p was declining in advance.i have sold out now as im not sure the risk reward ratio is now that favourable.no doubt this will prove to be a mistake on my part but i will continue to monitor to see how things develop.if you continue to hold i wish you well and that positive sentiment returns when sales figures are eventually released.
Morning the Italian
I see FUM now have a US agreement with the offshoot of GSK,
It certainly wasn't the explosive rise some were hoping for which could indicate it was already priced in. That said. 4mill up font payment and royalties on sales (no % given) is a little vague.. Certainly could mean not so much confidence on a high %. Of course, only time will tell when looking at the bottom line figure which will indicate if royalty % is good or bad.
Some positivity here which is encouraging for a LTH who is 90% down. Fingers crossed we eventually get a massive uplift and it becomes the promised ’money fountain!’
Wouldn't disagree with any of that bignose. hoping for a positive update in next couple of weeks.
Morning chaps,
Of course it’s doable. One only has to look at the numbers. Current market cap is 15mill squid. 1500% is x15. So 15x15 = 225 mill which is not a lot if they finish what they started. Optimistically, they should be able to achieve this just with China if their penetration of the 9mill sufferers in the first year is probable. Even with only 2 mill sales and 50 usd/can (it’s actually more than this according to their announcements). That means 100mill usd which rpg gets 25% +.
I cannot help but feel that they may just sell more than 2mill since they know their own market better than anyone else. Obviously just my opinion, but what matters is it’s all very doable and from a different source than possibly we would have thought a few years back.
And again, I point out, it’s because it’s out of the hands of monkeys.
Agreed dougie.not sure I've got the maths quite right but i think i would personally need a 1500% increase from here to break even on my last investment here (made a significant profit on the first foray so would probably break even overall if we went up 700%). i suppose 700% is not impossible from this position,but 1500% would be going it. i was just seeking to emphasise the potential for significant price movements on any real volume,but for those of us in similar positions,we would need ultra significant movement of the order outlined. that is the sad reality.i do, however, think it not impossible to get some of my investment back on the right news over time, which is my objective.
The problem is Italian, legacy holders will need the company to be worth hundreds of millions to make any kind of proper return on their investment. and with no sign of news yet again it is hard to fathom
Morning bignose.another demonstration of the potential for very significant moves(either way of course) on any real volume.volume continues be tiny in value terms, so if we ever do get any substantial news i would expect a significant upturn, albeit from our lowly current value.
Certainly some strange goings on. 0.77 for 10k (1 lot) of shares, yet only a couple of days ago they were going for less than 0.6. Are the M&M's now marking up the stock on the expectation of news (even sell price has increased) ? I could understand it if more shares were involved, but single lots !!!
Oh and If I am not wrong, the current market cap is approx 10% of that following the PLE TO. (152mill squid vs 15.7mill).
JR87,
If I am not mistaken....following the PLE takeover our holdings were reduced to 65%, After the DLI takeover they were reduced by a further 23% = 50%. After the recent 1 for 1 placing, our holdings are now at 25%.
It was worse for an RPG holder who had 35% after the PLE takeover. They now have, if there are indeed any remaining. a colossal 13,5%
Definitely an increase in shareholder value..... NOT
I exclude the additional shares which could have been placed to pay back JG's loan after the Yooya debacle since I am pretty sure , given the deal was based on an SP of 0.25, he wanted the money + his 4.5% interest, as he knew there was going to be a placing and why not get the money back which could be used to easily cover his part of the 1 for 1 placing. I wonder if that could be considered as a form of insider trading !!!!
I'm sure if my figures are wrong or I have missed any additionals, someone will pick it up.... :-)
Well, all this cheese talk has stimulated my interest. My particular favourites are blue Brie and emmental. However, isn’t it exciting that we have yet another name change. I can just see the board(if they ever meet) discussing how the company is progressing. ‘Any ideas how we can justify are income?’ ‘How about another name change and an exciting new logo?’ ‘Brilliant idea! That distract the shareholders from yet another profit warning!’
This share proves that it’s all a gamble.