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There are still outstanding issues that require resolution before deal can be completed. There is no doubt that the current value makes the deal very good for SBGL. LMI does however still face significant investment and productivity issues that require to be addressed and in my view the SBGL deal is still the best outcome to resolve these issues. If the PT price has a sustained rise of circa 20%-25% then other buyers may show interest but doubt that will happen before deal completed even at current slow rate of progress!
I really can't see the deal going through... It makes absolutely no sense to go ahead with the deal. The longer it goes on the less likely the deal will proceed on the current terms. I wouldn't be surprised if another potential bidder comes in. If this happens maybe LMI holders will at least get some value as what's currently on the table is a joke...
Based on their SP LMI was at £2.07p approx....Deal is cheap to cheap imo
UPDATE 1-South African court blocks mine union's plan for industry-wide strike
Agreed 100no
Agreed 100no
Whatamess - I have been saying for a long time that the deal undermines and undervalues the true worth of Lonmin. The Board unfortunately have made numerous mistakes but aligning us with SGL under the current terms is absolutely ridiculous and the biggest mistake of them all. SGL will suffer as Eskom have hiked up the electricity costs which will have minimal affects on the platinum mining but be quite damaging for gold mining. SGL has a poor reputation in S.A and has many enemies. The relation they have with the unions is fraught, they face upcoming law suits in the U.S, their safety record has been poor and they are highly leveraged. I could go on... Lonmin has no debt, a large resource, better relationships with unions etc, Its own smelter and refineries etc and is a pure PGM play. The current valuation is a joke.
Latest predicting over supply for 2019 but potential increases in demand due to substitution of PD and/or increase in fuel cell usage on horizon. This maybe final year of depressed PT prices!
$3010 today mate....breakout of the 2010 kick back rally....this is a strong sign imo
AV BP today is R15,955 circa
The board should be aiming high here imv and this should be 2-3x 68p!
Rastuss good summary. Not sure what more legal options Uncle Joe has left but sure he will think of something!
Current price circa $2930. Which is nearly $1000 higher from the last results. Lonmin produces roughly 100,000 oz pa. Surely even this Board can make a decent profit this year. The current valuation is just ridiculous. The share price should be multiples of the current price. When will the market wake up... There are one project mining companies without infrastructure (basically a field) valued higher than this.
All very sad but any heavy handed use of police wil play into Uncle Joe's hand he wants to provoke a violent response. If Uncle Joe wants company directors jailed for deaths perhaps it should be applicable to union leaders who incite violence that leads to deaths of workers! Unions in S.A. need to work together not fight each other if they genuinely want to improve their members conditons rather than having violent turf wars.
An olive branch is an olive branch! Uncle Joe has missed an opportunity to negotiate any potential jobs reductions, not good, he seems determined to drag this out as long as possible! Not sure his interdict will work and if he is not careful more SBGL gold miners may end up with no jobs, absolutely no point in mining gold if it costs more to do so than what it sells for!
Rastuss fairly generous offer, SBGL obviously keen to end the strike. It does not seem time limited but suspect that will be announced shortly. Will see how Uncle Joe reacts, if he has sense he will ask for some concessions/parameters re potential gold job losses, if gets something he can claim a victory and he does have platinum wage discussions round the corner! If he tries to play hard ball he could end up being undermined if strikers start returning which they will unless intimidation starts which would not be good. Uncle Joe maybe be right in that corporate manslaughter laws may require tightening up in cases of proven negligence as ensuring safety of miners is paramount but deaths are unavoidable in the current labour intensive deep mining industry unfortunately. Mechanisation can make mining safer but is not always feasible from what I understand.
Really the board have to turn around the nett cash situ with the BP at this level! there is no excuse for bad numbers ATM! COP is the only issue and the BOD should be keeping that as low as possible! pressure is on Jabba imv...ben is not doing enough for stakeholders of lonmin!
Yes agreed!
I think 200 would still be to low Ta. The market will wake up at some point and realise the current takeover is out of kilter with the current higher PGM prices and weaker Rand. The Board need to relinquish the current offer as its not in the best interest of any of the stakeholders in LMI. If the Board were to deliver a positive statement and explain that the current offer is not in the best interest of all stakeholders the shares would fly.
A deal, one that saves face will be done, what that will be and when is anyone's guess, mine is minimising job reductions plus softer benefits. It always takes longer to transform an industry than is anticipated and that's ok if you can survive that long!
Deal could be done ?
+ 8% in the us this evening. £2 here ATM. No from me Jabba £2+ cash offer or we go it alone
Rastuss I have not seen anything re Amplats and impact of power outages, no doubt it has an operational impact and should these become unpredictable, impact could be very damaging indeed.
Stillwater will probably account for the majority of SBGL profits in 2019 it produces a high PD output, so looking very good even after streaming deal, Jabba got that right even if streaming deal expensive! Suspect Jabba waiting for courts to rule in his favour and/or strikes to peter out, he is not going to move. Uncle Joe may have met his match as not a lot left he can do and stay legal! He may revert to dirty tactics to try and create a situation (violence unfortunately) to garner support for his stance as his members must be wondering when the current strikes will end as they must be suffering. I await Uncle Joe's next move with anticipation!
Rastuss as you have said before S.A. courts are notoriously slow! In my view sometimes think it's deliberate for many reasons, politics being one and time resolves issue another! Time I suspect re the NW court one! By the time court rules LMI will have complied with SLP albeit late as they have indicated in their results a catch up plan in place!
Uncle Joe will undoubtedly have a plan B we will need to see what it is, sure we will find out soon enough! Not sure if he is prepared to be a martyr just yet!
Unclear what the impact of ESKOM load shedding is having on miners as they have forewarning of when it happens for safety reasons so can manage to some extent. There will be some financial and operational impact but not sure how much as yet but hopefully minimal!
Rastuss interesting employers must have been able to satisfy court they have a clear legal case (prima facia) and are satisfying other conditions. Good news for employers but sure AMCU will appeal judgement when it happens but in the interim the strike is effectively blocked. Uncle Joe will not be happy wonder what he will do next!
Not sure SBGL has accepted AMCU strike protected they are still awaiting labour court to rule on verification process if I recall. Mind you by the time they rule strike could be over!
PT price now just shy of the average price they got last year, on the plus side PD and Rhodium both well up on last year.
The pt rise of about 10% in the last week or so helps the situation. The LMI Board have made many mistakes but agreeing to this so called takeover is the biggest of the lot...