Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
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Interesting why AMCU withdrew notice at some places, maybe AMCU support not as solid as Uncle Joe expected! Think argument against action strong but we will see if court agrees!
Or Lonmin could stay independent for a year or two and be valued at £4 -5 per share. I think you will find Ta that Ruffer are not alone. The offer is so 2017...
Has to be £2-3 per share offer....current is not acceptable and ruffer no that!
Brexit round 2 mate...lol
See my impala post
Impala is above the 61.8% fib entrancement of the 2016 high and 2018 low.....LMI should be £1.70 - £1.90 Right now as they both moved in unison in 2016!
SGL has held this back big time they and rastuss lol
I very much doubt the SGL holders have any reservations with regards to the deal as they are giving up very little for what will be a very valuable asset. Lonmin have net cash, they have the lowest PE ratio in the mining sector, the book value which has been heavily written down is still multiples of the mkt cap. I don't think its going to be as easy as Jabba thinks it will be. If a larger cash offer were to come in at say 125p per share do you think Jabba would walk away?
The top 10 institutional shareholders of LMI account for circa 63% of shares. Source FT LMI tearsheet not sure how upto date it is. No guarantee they would all support takeover but suspect most will. Also think its the SBGL shareholders who will have reservations re deal!
Or you could equally phrase it that LMI holders only need 25% of the vote to remain independent.
Rastuss; you once compared Lonmin to Toys R Us, right now I would prefer to be sitting on a huge amount of PGM's than a lot of cheap plastic toys made in China...
I will be saying no to the current offer Ta. Rastuss did correctly point out last year that the offer was literally an option. As I have mentioned a lot of positives have happened since then. If PGM prices fell and the Rand had strengthened I doubt Jabba would have honoured his takeover of LMI. One could create "what if" scenarios for all companies and paint a nihilistic landscape but the current offer does not reflect a true valuation.
At present I am still in favour of the takeover but should a clear sustainable rally in PT price emerge I may change my mind! We are some way off that at present! My view only.
On my pt average and lonmin stuck here! should be £120....considering vote as jabba may have to change his offer with the BP were it is
Agree LMI may attract additional interest if PT price rises, as it has valuable assets and reserves available, however the underlying productivity issue still requires resolution by whom ever takes up challenge! Still think Jabba favourite at moment but circumstances change!
So we vote no?
As LMI's prospects look better going forward it is quite possible that another player might like to have exposure to platinum. I wouldn't rule out Bristow now that he is in charge of Barrick. Purchasing LMI for him now would be small change...
LMI will be able to survive with signficant sustained increase in PT price and weak rand no doubt about it in short to medium term. Problem is they are reliant on these external factors and unless they contain costs and improve productivity in the short to medium term they along with many others in SA miners will struggle as costs are increasing fast. I do agree the PT price is low and agree it will pick up when fuel cell production picks up hopefully in next year or so. I do however still believe that LMI as part of SBGL will provide better returns for shareholders in long term as product and geographical diversification is key to survival and growth.
He wants LMI badly and if he had to pay treble the current offer he would still have a good deal and he knows it. Platinum is oversold and is due a substantial rise within the next two years imho. The longer this delay goes on the harder it will be for SGL to takeover LMI as investors will realise that the current offer is not worth taking. The risk reward has swung in LMI's favour. I will not be voting for the takeover and I know that I am not alone...
I find it rather strange that so called holders of LMI are so negative with regards to the future prospects of the company.
Jabba will keep his option open re LMI until dust settles after election. If EFF gain significant influence in S.A. political scene and AMCU becomes more poweful in mining industry then SBGL along with other players may exit S.A. or reduce investment all of which bad for the industry and jobs! Hopefully this will not happen and this is Jabba raising stakes in the game currently being played out! He still wants LMI badly but not at any cost!
If Jabba's position was reversed and he was running LMI I very much doubt he would let it go for a song. A lot has changed in the last 18 months and the current share price does not reflect this. LMI was dragged down because all the problems at SGL including multiple deaths, high debt and strikes. I think that LMI shareholders expose themselves to greater risks being part of SGL than continuing to be an independent company.
Note; the Rand has depreciated.
The PGM basket price has increased and is increasing.
No banking covenants (the favourite tool of the shorts).
Sale of assets that are valued at zero.
Unlikely Jabba will move on pay uplift although there is scope round softer benefits. This strike is purely political to raise EFF profile ahead of the election! Uncle Joe wants mining industry nationalised he does not care if LMI or any others go bust in the interim! My view is Cyril will let it run and see what's next move after secondary strikes over (if its only a week) as Uncle Joe will want to keep pressure on, his risk is, he will alienate his members, remember its only 300 rand per month in year one and 175 rand years 2 and 3 if I recall, his members will take years to recoup their lost wages!
Rating agencies tend to take a prudent view these days (rightly but they can overdo it) and concerns re strike impact will be paramount as no resolution is coming soon unfortunately by the looks of it, but you never know we could be surprised next week! It is true a long strike may require a rights issue and that will be problematic but think risk low at present. The current discount on LMI shares is circa 15% it has been a lot higher in recent times I take this and the increase in holdings by main players as a good sign that deal will proceed. In 6 months time it will all be done and dusted one way or other, LMI assimilated or the Lmi bones being picked over by SBGL and others, as they do have significant strategically placed assets and reserves! Patience and nerves required!
Whatamess - I don't know how long you have been following this thread but I am sure you have figured out by now that Rastuss only has one view with regards to Lonmin and that view is negative which is his prerogative. The Rand is fairly weak and will probably get weaker with the elections coming up so that's a major positive for LMI as of course is the PGM basket price which is rising. I think the profit this year will exceed Last years $100m profit especially considering the sale of assets which have been valued at zero. The current management have been very poor but as time passes it will be clear that the SGL takeover considerably undervalues LMI. The market will wake up and rerate LMI at some point. Certain funds have been increasing their positions recently so I am not alone with my assumptions...
Mkt cap less than £200m. What a joke...
Platinum is looking good.
Buy just popped up