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At last you've got one right, Bushy. I've got to agree with you. In 2022 there were numerous reports of swallows in the SW of England in January and February. I think a maximum of 12 birds were seen at a time. Maybe 13 swallows makes a summer?
Hello Leon, please can you give us an update on Jubilees Plans for Tjate.
METALS – Shanghai copper hits 7 – week high on demand expectations
02:56
BEIJING, June 14 (Reuters) – Shanghai copper prices rose on Wednesday to a seven-week high, with the demand outlook buoyed by China's latest economic support and a subdued dollar amid expectations of an interest rate hike pause by the U.S. Federal Reserve.
The most-traded July copper contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was up 1.4% at 67,920 yuan ($9,478.49) per metric tonne by 0138 GMT, its highest since April 25.
China's central bank's decision to cut short-term borrowing costs for the first time in 10 months came as the latest move by the country to support its economy, signalling potentially a rise in demand for industrial metals.
Upbeat sentiment sent three-month copper on the London Metal Exchange to a one-month high in the previous session, while the contract retreated 0.1% to $8,448 per metric tonne.
The dollar hovered around a three-week low on Wednesday, after the smallest annual increase in inflation last month in more than two years supported expectations that the Fed will pause rate hikes at its two-day meeting ending on Wednesday.
In China, refined copper output declined month-on-month in May because of smelters' maintenance. That, coupled with lower imports due to unfavorable market conditions, raised concerns of further supply tightness.
Don't cry Bushy.
One swallow does not make a summer.
Tears again soon
The greatest weight on the SP recently has been the lackluster Chinese recovery and associated low metal prices. Looks like they're about to embark on some major stimulus over there so fingers crossed.
A little increase in the share price does improve the mood and a sustained uptrend would sure be nice. Still please do remember that JBL shares were at 20 pence in May 2021, at 15 pence in May 2022, and at 9.5 pence in May 2023. We still have a ways to go before total euphoria should break out.
Yes Mikie, when cobalt prices moderate and go up its scary to think how high JLP share price can go. I don't know any company at this price point with this commodity in their back pocket that's waiting in the winds to tear the roof off.
Yes indeed Happy Days, the earnings going forward are going to be very Happy days indeed!! Can you imagine when commodity prices return?????
Hi Summit. I don't think the grade of the tailings has reduced. In fact, some time ago, there was some unsubstantiated speculation that the PGM grade of ROM ore coming to Inyoni would increase. As others have pointed out, it looks as though Leon sees our future as a chrome producer as well as PGM and copper with plans afoot to increase chrome by a further 60% within 24 months. It will be interesting to see how this chrome will appear in the accounts. It is beginning to look substantially more than just a PGM credit.
What's very exciting Mikie is that even though this 6 month period should be good with 2x increase in copper production and salable cobalt. The next 6 months will see yet again another doubling of copper production and a 30 percent increase in chrome at higher profit margins. What's not to like... it seems the market is finally waking up.
Hey Seis, Thanks for the chrome work, just taken a look and i think the correlation is pretty evident. However, the really interesting factor is the price of chrome is still increasing quarter on quarter. This is making Leons latest expansion of 200k tonnes, ramping up to 360K tonnes, with a fairly short term target of 720k tonnes look inspired. Which ever way you look upon this, it is either phenonomal luck or superb timing and planning from Leon and the board.
Summit, why would the PGM content of the tailings have reduced?
Https://www.ferroalloynet.com/chromeore/analysis-10.html
I had to trawl through the announcements to get the values
What's your price source for the chrome concentrate please Seis?
Are they getting the expected ounces of pgms out of the tailings or is this lower hence increasing bread and butter chrome production
Admittedly you would want to see a longer period of time to see if it’s a genuine trend but I’m prepared to take Leon’s word for it (I can’t be bothered to type in any more numbers! 🙂).
I wonder if they also have any plans to renegotiate the current fixed term contracts to get a better cut of the chrome margin? Some of the contracts were coming to the end of their initial period in the next couple of months I believe.
Thanks for posting this, Seis. You have to use the eye of faith slightly, but certianly the recent movements bear out the hypothesis. I wonder if Leon sees us as an even bigger player in the chrome arena in years to come. I quote from the last RNS
"§ The Agreement is in line with the Company's growth target of reaching an annualised production rate of 2 million tonnes (in excess of 60% increase) of chrome concentrate over the next 24 months."
I was interested to see if PGM and Chrome prices do tend to follow opposite trajectories as Leon has stated, so I plotted data for 40-42% chrome concentrate price against PGM basket: https://tinyurl.com/459bxe4y
You can see that they do indeed follow that general trend, so it definitely makes sense to be trying to negotiate contracts where we get a higher cut of the chrome margin to offset any weakness in the PGM price.
Thanks Jonah, I was finding it difficult to keep track of what was going on with the various chrome plants so a summary is helpful. The RNS suggests that the Chrome footprint is expanding so I don’t think they are replacing another contract with the new one, I think this is in addition.
The summary I did says they are uplifting a minimum of 30,000 tonnes / month of tailings from the Eastern Limb to Inyoni and also potentially 16,500 tonnes / month of RoM as well. It would make sense to stop transporting that as soon as they can process it on the Eastern Limb and the new contract could fill that gap nicely. If that is the case then not only would we be benefiting from the increased chrome production and margin but also a massive reduction in transport costs which were last quoted as US$198 / PGM ounce, if you calculate that for 40,000 ounces of PGM’s that’s quite a large number!
And, as an addendum, that means another 10,0000 oz of PGMs to process, so your question about where this is going to be done becomes even more relevant. I suppose one possibility is that one of our existing arrangements will come to an end and the new material will fill the gap.
Thanks Seis. A lot of work went into that! Your estimate of the production from the new joint venture may be on the low side - always a good idea. The 'option' to increase production to 720,000 tonnes appears to be a little more than a mere option. Leon states "Jubilee targets to complete the expansion, to 720 000 tonne per annum, within 12 months of commencing operations at the retrofitted facility." But it seems that the retrofitting will complete by the end of this month as far as I can tell. Of course, there will be commissioning, but if the enhanced facility commences operations in July the further expansion might be complete by July 2024. Of course, it's not nailed on but is more than a possibility.
Https://tinyurl.com/y39ayk8a
This is an updated summary of the South African operations based on past RNS details.
Thanks for the calculation Chester, as you say without having a detailed breakdown of ore costs and chrome margin it’s hard to make any accurate calculations, that’s something we really need to press them on at the next AGM, the level of reporting detail really needs to be more in line with their peers, they are way behind in that regard.
Having said that the jump from ~4% to ~20% margin is very significant. The company has no control over the basket price but they can mitigate against falling prices by:
1. Increasing production of chrome and therefore PGM’s
2. Increasing the margin paid on chrome price, which is generally stronger when PGM’s are weaker.
I did email Leon directly with some questions about the announcement but (as usual) no response so far. I wanted to know how they were planning to process the extra 10,000 ounces of PGM’s if Inyoni is already at maximum throughput. My guess is that these ounces will replace the material currently trucked from the Eastern Limb, we don’t know exactly how much material is being trucked each month but the transport costs imply it is quite considerable. Could this mean that they expect to start building the new EL chrome plant very soon? The fact that Leon didn’t do any interviews after the last RNS (as Northern pointed out) makes me think another announcement may be imminent….
Bushy time to admit you were wrong but not holding my breath as with your stupid remarks I expect something stupid from you.Maybe someone will tell me you apologized
Whatever you call it, it is very pleasant to see this moving up. If we can gain some attention then I think anyone who looks at JLP with new DD eyes may be tempted to have a nibble as below.
Fresh eyes:
1. Downside SA powr issues = 60% addressed and forecasts reflect this - okay im not out yet...
2. PGM exposure dropping price - yes but Copper coming on stream and Chrome. Hmm doesnt appear to be fully refelcted in price
3. Cobalt - holeee mollleee - and not in price at all - Buy.
4. TA - big gap to fill up to 11.6....good.
I am hoping volumes pick up to reflect new buyers - a little bit of confirmation news if they have it on Copper would definitely help...as would any news on other expansion efforts - its been a long wait!
C'mon Leon...
GLA