Adam Davidson, CEO of Trident Royalties, discusses offtake milestones and catalysts to boost FY24. Watch the video here.
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Excuse for a small top up for me today ;)
What’s todays excuse? Where is the CEO?
Plunder, I don’t think you get me at all or have even looked at Jan in any detail. A quick glance through my posting or the very few recent RNS would have shown you it’s not FID expected next at Jan. Capex is also very manageable and an IRR of 100% and npv to capex ratio of 5 gives plenty of scope to rework numbers.
Capex inflation will affect all projects in some way or another, variants on split between plant and infrastructure spends etc. personally wouldn’t touch the more marginal development companies as a 20%-30% IRR and NPV to capex ratio circa 1 just doesn’t have enough in it to greed existing holders and financiers, whether expected or god forbid capex overruns.
Other free advise is you really need a strong local team involved in Brazil. Fortunately we have Luis who is certainly one of not the best person we could hope for.
There was more to the UFO move than just Ironore price.
Both have pros and cons, I’ve switched from majority UFO to now majority JAN. r/r right now favours Jan IMO.
Dcat80 I get your frustration as you expect UFO to pass FID stage before Jangada who have been stuck there for a good while, however I wonder if these guys aren't taking their time for real business reasons as I know two companies who got caught out by inflation and rising energy costs during construction and they're in big trouble as they're insolvent while their mines are only half built and they are likely to get swallowed up by majors after administration and equity wipeouts, so this pause in progress might actually be tactical.
SP is frustrating. UFO has bounced 100% from lows on improving iron ore price, yet Jan not really moved…
Brian and Luis previously financed and built mine at Avanco with Appian capital, blackrock and glencore all involved with eventual buy out by Oz minerals. Similar economics with 94% IRR and NPV to capex ratio of 5:1 all in poor copper market.
Luis recently bought asset for bravo for $1.3m before floating it for over $150m
(Retaining over a 50% stake himself…). Not seen anyone else manage something like that & definitely the in country director we want!
We need to see progress and improvement in comms from Brian. Be nice if during this quiet period he’d taken a college course on communications 😂
I increased my holding today based on our 8.5% BRES progress.
Mind you, I am deeply under water and hope to see some SP recovery here !
I’m sure we’re all hoping you got the lows and pretty confident you’ve one of the better averages. Assets are very exciting, just needs to wake up!
Got what I wanted last week. Slightly above my target price. All prepared to wait for delivery.
Good luck 👍
First time I’ve seen an iron ore offtake with a junior for a very long time.
Hopefully sign market is improving along with the recent iron price surge 🤞🤞
https://themarketherald.com.au/fenix-inks-wa-iron-ore-offtake-deal-with-privately-held-10m-2023-11-20/
Been unfortunate in some other holdings where I’ve waited too long to increase at the lower levels. Selfishly I hope it doesn’t happen again here. But, what will be will be. GL
Thanks for sharing your knowledge here Dcat.
There is plenty of news due/overdue
1) Updates on private company called Fodere which Jan have circa 7% interest in. They should be making solid progress towards being producer in 2024 with revenues circa $100m on high volumes. Previously advised would be funded 100% by debt. That’s just stage 1. If all goes well then stage in later years would increase throughput and see revenue of nearer $500m. Market unaware of fodere, but if all goes to plan it’s a $1b+ MC companyat stage 2.
2) Updates on Jangada pitombieras project. We’re waiting on ore being tested using Fodere propriety tech. All going well this would vastly increase the titanium credits, therefore project economics and attractiveness to offtakers to fund the project
3) New acquisition. Been mentioned since start of year. In country director taking lead on these negotiations. BOD are targeting non core assets of majors with unicorn potential and where any payment is down the line on milestones. Whilst no specifics are known the last acquisition made by this director was for $1.3m with it being floated shortly after for over $100m. So it’s the dark horse as in we don’t know what it could be, but the Director negotiating has form and could be transformational.
There’s not been any meaningful update for 18mths which has punished company and lead to lots forgetting the excitement. Pitombieras project already has a post tax IRR of 100% and npv $97m and trial mining licence in place. In current set up iron ore is chief commodity. Recent increase in iron price also helps make project in its pre fodere plant scenario more likely for offtaker funding (although think it’s fodere plant option that will be most likely route).
Took a starter position today. Will add on any dip from here.
Some nice volume here past few days.
News expected? Or just undervalued as market is turning? Looks good for £6m. Very tempting I must say.
Regarding new acquisition/s. Not been posted for a while, but Luis taking lead on the negotiations. Recently bought asset for $1.3m to then floated it at nearer $100m with institutional support (all in prospectus below). Definitely the right guy for opportunities in Brazil!!!
https://bravomining.com/site/assets/files/5752/20220715_bravo_mining_ipo_final_long_form_prospectus.pdf
Looks good to be fair. I took some a couple of weeks ago as its fallen a long way and doesn't appear to be much downside risk around this 2p mark. Few more buys and it'll back towards 3p
Looks like this may be back in play soon
Perhaps more relevant for offtakes than price… I suspect though it’ll be offtake on tio2 that’ll be more likely to us..
https://uk.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/iron-ore-deficit-looms-goldman-sachs-forecasts-supply-shortfall-for-yearend-report-3234554
Artyth, i also added recently (150k), it feels very lonely being a buyer among the sell/s that happen every day though!
As I’ve posted I believe we’re definitely in period I expect to see Fodere updates at the least.. Hopefully it’ll soon be clear on why i believe just the Jangada stake on them will soon be worth more than Jangada current MC…
No idea though on where company is on the new acquisition/s references as being in the coming months way back at the start of the year. I believe Luis is taking lead on these and with what he done with Bravo it’s the dark horse of the possibilities here. Nothing to speculate or research on though until it’s announced and we can review..
Just had a little top up. Showing red.
A dry, hot zephyr pushes the tumbleweed down the main street......the townfolk look parched...
Their weary eyes once again look to the empty skies in a vain hope of an RNS to finally end the news drought and to help their withering investment grow! But, no, it's just another day of tumbleweed....
Small 35k top up for me this morning. We’re well into period I believe news on fodere own ops and pitombieras should land (had pencilled in from September likely). Sure some of you might remember fodere tech on pitombieras has been focus of my investment case for years and we’re finally at start of seeing this 🤞
HMI is and always has been about sales. All else there is noise. They started off not having licence to sell much and from low volumes, got the licensing to produce more and increased sells. It became a buy around summer 2021 with the headwinds of increasing sales. 5 bagger from there. This year the fertilizer sector in Brazil has crashed and HmI sales to (competitors also hit…), SP reflects that. If they can’t get sales then like any company you have to ask is there a business there?
It highlights why most mines and certainly those with anything but a small Capex requirement need offtake agreements before the build will be funded. Financiers need proof of sales basically,
Pitombieras is only getting funded by offtakers. Why we’ve been waiting so long… With offtaker agreement there wouldn’t be sake issue here though..
This is simple stuff. Make an effort to understand it. Lazy to blame BOD and not know the underlying issue, PIs that do tend to make same mistakes at different companies with different BOD. Instead know the business. It’s what I’ve been discussing for years, but feels like falls on deaf ears!
What has Brian done to Harvest Minerals? I cannot trust this man!
Look at latitude and Valore SP graph. Simply combining the market cap totally ignores,
A) the legacy latitude share count, it wasn’t a new co formed for angilak
B) latitude placing to fund their exploration
C) the placing at Valore to fund work at Pedra Branca
Latitude in particular might go in a good run now with uranium market being hot, so at somepoint the value might exceed the total Jangada got, but even if does it could hardly be foreseen when Jangada sold years earlier, plus we’d have placed.
I’d really like to see Fodere updates soon on their own operations. I’m very confident they’ll be demonstrating the investment made in them will be very valuable and in the not too distant future. Their S Africa plant fully funded by a development bank is now going to be 5 times larger than initially planned! The lack of engagement from them as well as their delays is actually more frustrating for me than waiting for pitombieras, which I appreciated would take some doing the test work.