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Hi guys been away for a week and returned to see same share price.
It's a puzzler for sure. I've posted before my view is that the catalogue of issues getting phase 1 over the line was expensive and missed great gas pricing for last winter but also ran up costs.
The drop coincided with quite modest institutional selling which saw IOG falling all the time the need for UK gas grew in importance and it's pricing rose.
The growing calls to penalize UK producers with a windfall tax almost seems to have impacted IOG harder than others. I'm not sure why maybe it's because we still have the debt to handle first so are less firm footed to absorb the uncertainty?
I still think LOG casts a long shadow even if they continue to wait for a higher price to cash out. I personally don't like them holding such a large position in combination with Lombard Osier. But if they hold for medium term then they are not causing the short term sluggishness.
I think the drop down to low twenties has made it harder to escape this range as we have sellers from that bottom range now who can trade. I suspect it's that short term dynamic that is in play.
Longer term money talks so it is all about getting more resources flowing as soon as possible. We are further into the news void that was inevitable once the longish drills for Southwark finally got underway and so it's only a matter of time before we hear news on Southwark. While it's not exploration we don't want any alterations to reserves like Elgood or Harvey. Be nice for a revision up for a change!
I think this will just suddenly move as it's done before for no obvious reason but it's tough on IOG and its shareholders given the macro economic context to be under where we were pre first gas. Should be higher but its going to take longer to get there.
I realise this is a pure gas play GG. Just using the generic sector moniker O&G. Well I hope you are all right that this is 100% guaranteed good outcome on the next 2 wells. Though that makes the sluggish performance of the SP even more frustrating to me.
No worries Mr Flibbles
As usual well put GG
JH
Your comment
“And this is Oil and Gas Exploration, so you can't ever count your chickens before they've hatched. In a bit of a quandary here as me money is tied up in a non performing investment and there is no guarantee it will get any better.”
This is not exploration, Southwark wells are proven and previously appraised.
The NUI is installed and the 2 Southwark wells are being drilled and completed planned to be in production Q4
The additional 24” pipelines are connected to the main flow line so certainly no exploration here at all.
After this are Kelman and Goddard appraisals which are again previously proven drills.
IOG are now fully gas producers and Oil wont play any part in forward plans
All the best
GG
I'm getting bored with this share. Whenever it gets off to a decent start a couple of hefty sellers queer the pitch and it drops back again. This then curbs any significant demand for the rest of the day. Its happened on numerous days over the last few weeks . I've heard all the optimistic noises by other posters, and agree that it has got a lot of potential. But none of this potential is showing in the SP. Also...given how crappy the SP stands at the moment, if Southwark fails to deliver I can see this back in the low twenties. And this is Oil and Gas Exploration, so you can't ever count your chickens before they've hatched. In a bit of a quandary here as me money is tied up in a non performing investment and there is no guarantee it will get any better. Even in a good news scenario, what the hell is going to happen? Big-time sellers into good news? No abusive replies please and cries of troll and deramp etc etc. I'm long on this one and hoping to make some money here but I can't see any sign of tangible progress. Extraordinary considering the many multiples of price being generated on gas sales compared with the so called price required to make this field an economic proposition. Makes you wonder where we would be without the major uplift on gas selling price compared to the investment case. The SP IS LOWER THAN BEFORE THE RECENT SUCCESS IN BRINGING THE CURRENT PRODUCTION ON LINE. Bloody daft when you look at how other old dogs are gaining price increases. That's it....rant over!
Apologies scoredagainsteps I did not read the title of your post. LOL on me!
OMG, LOL on IOG forum today. Scoredagainsteps please refer to the Corporate Update on the 20th of June "I am pleased to say that Saturn Banks production continues to be restored as planned, up to 54 mmscf/d gross currently from 30 mmscf/d at the start of June. We are taking the necessary actions both to improve facilities uptime and minimise restart times after any outages. Allowing for planned and unplanned downtime, we expect to produce 45-60 mmscf/d gross on average over 2H22."
We are not producing. Be nice to have a tr1 with the 1 million buy . Other gas companies are racing away we are stuck with a constant seller .picked up 4 lots last week my target on the extra gas is 60 p plus ! It is frustrating but if the seller stopped I’m sure we be over 45 p . Looks to look forward to here . We got 10 market makers on buy side as we speak and 2 on sell side . I can’t remember if I seen ten on buy side before . Good luck all imo load up for the extra gas if u can