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I'm glad you recognise the problems inm has. For the last while it has maintained profits by cost cutting. Great in itself but only treading water as the business is contracting and not growing. The fact is print media is selling less product yoy. The pie is shrinking and while they might shout about been No1in this and No1 in that it means diddly squat. So, they have a million views on the web paper, great, except without a pay wall the views are free. For web based businesses to give product away for free they need hundreds of millions of users. That way ad revenue is substantial and profitable. There just isn't the population here to justify free content in the long term. It won't take long for growth in digital add revenue to level out as views stabilise. You also recognised another fact. Growing online add revenue by 30% is great except in the bigger picture it means very little. Growing standard add revenue by 5% would be much more meaningful. Unfortunately, every time the number of newspapers been sold is announced that prospect reduces. But....O'brien and Desmond are no fools. I can't believe they wouldn't have seen all these thing already. Desmond could have cut and run at 18c but didn't. There must surely be a long term plan here. An improved economy should at least keep inm stable for now and give them a chance to do their thing. Long term there is still hope but for now its just sit and wait.
I sure hope you're right, but if you look around the globe, newspapers that have been around since the 1800s are going down like skittles. Trusts can be unravelled, if the motivation is compelling enough (i.e. if they can't pay the wages). Sunday Indo isn't a tabloid - yet - although it may look like one sometimes. Where INM does often score over the IT, in my opinion, is news judgement. If they have news, it will be on the front page. Compare with the IT, where last week they put the resignation of the Indo editor in the business supplement, low down. News judgement in the I.T. is lazy, self-indulgent and often influenced by political factors (i.e. the agenda). That does not help to sell papers.
The Irish Times is owned by a trust. Its been around since the 1800's. I'm not sure what is debt position is, but I have no reason to believe that it is going anywhere any time soon. I actually don't think that the Irish Independent operates in the same space. The Irish Times, whatever you think about it, is of a far superior quality of.....everything. The Irish Independent is more concerned with leaked pictures naked celebrities. It is a tabloid, as are all the other papers in the INM group. If the overall group can grab enough of the trash market, as well as diversify, they might do well. A move to highbrow journalism would not suit them.
The name of the game is survival. The Irish newspaper market is seriously overcrowded, both daily and at weekend, and nobody is making any serious money, or likely to. Sooner or later, something's gotta give. if and when it does, the survivors will be in a better position. I suspect the cannier investors in INM (insert names as you wish) have their eye on a scenario where the I.T. gets into trouble.
Just had a read through the H1 2014 results there, along with some of the broker commentary on them. I have to admit that it is very hard to see where this is going in the medium term. Reducing debt is great; if you are Smurfit Kappa. If your top-line revenue is decreasing year on year, its hard to be overly positive about how much less you owe. And 30% increase in digital advertising flatters to deceive; its an increase from 3 to 3.9Million. At the same time they have lost more than that in the reduction in print advertising, which contributes 10 times more to their revenue than digital. It looks a lot like someone trying to swim really hard into a current. Getting nowhere but becoming exhausted. And as for this nugget "Irish Independent continues to dominate the quality daily market"....come on. Who are they kidding. Its bargain basement stuff the indo.........
No growth as you say, revenue and sales down. Still, internal austerity is having an effect, net profits up significantly. Wouldn't take much in the line of advertising growth to change the picture quite a bit.
The other side is sweeter at the moment, but we will have to agree to disagree ,till time answers on this one! Another rally left here this year! Here`s hoping I am right and you are wrong! Win or loose ,its an enjoyable game!
Not a hope in hell. Closer to 10c than 20c unfortunately. Results today were dire again. Absolutely no growth. If it wasn't for yet more cost cutting it would have been worse. Their big hope of a digital revolution added less than 5m to revenue. Growing by small in the overall revenue. They spent 10m alone last year on digital relate investment. By far its biggest asset is APN and we are down to less than 20% there. Two things that may save it. 1. Other titles close and inm has a monopoly. 2....someone cracks paywalls for news. Anyway allmoyne, things are much more positive elsewhere so we can console ourselves over there.
released this morning, Operating Profit, pre-exceptionals, of €15.9 million, in line with 2013; Total Revenue of €157.8 million, marginally down on the prior year: Digital advertising revenue growth of 30% to €3.9 million;
........we will see 20c this year...optimism or pessimism. .......mark my words
Your optimism would be best place in other quarters allmoyne. I see no ground to believe anything is going to change here regardless of who own the shares. There just isn't any spark for a recovery. Until this much talked about digital strategy proves its worth we are going nowhere.
Well at least the bosses have no time for non delivery. It's going to be an exceptional editor that stems the flow here I think.
editor leaving her post with immediate effect. Rough old world. Only a year ago she was 'one of the brightest of her generation'.
Only waiting to see what happens when the banks off load Tony o`s shares.... major reshuffling behind the scene...I have every confidence in it long term and expect a pre November rally.(but optimism isn't my weak point) good luck
..... not glory thats for sure. I try not to look at this share price because it too depressing. I can see absolutely nothing that will halt this decline. Can you lads see any light at the end of this tunnel even in the next year?
And the Russians will go home to Moscow, and the Israelis to wherever they belong, and peace and prosperity will break out all over. Actually, what sells papers is war, not peace. Unfortunately.
Good news isn`t something newspapers do well!! Lol All a want is for vendetta to be put to bed, with Tony`s shares firmly in Dermot's hands! When that happens we should head for the twenties .
surely you mean not expecting good news? Frankly good news wd be a miracle, in present climate.
Newspapers sales in Ireland recorded further losses in the first half of 2014, with the daily market declining 7.3 per cent and the Sunday market down 6.3 per cent year-on-year. The print circulation of all the main titles retreated, exacerbating a trend that dates back to 2007, according to figures released by the Audit Bureau of Circulations (ABC). Independent down 7.2%. Full article here http://www.irishtimes.com/business/sectors/media-and-marketing/newspaper-sales-continue-to-decline-across-the-board-1.1904236
28 of Aug. Results out, going by our recent pull back I would be expecting good news.gla
At this rate, this will soon be back into buyable territory. Still not sure where good news is going to come from, though.
APN Results not very impressive. I may not know much, but any company results presentation that describes the market the operate in as 'soft' doesn't fill me with confidence.
Marathon selling down still
INM has 18.61 % of APN. Was nearly 29% until last February, when INM dropped out of a fundraising and let DOB take their rights.
APN Results are out next Wednesday. INM still hold a reasonable chunk, although they didn't take up their rights in the the last issue of shares. My first encounter with APN was their last set of results, which I thought to the untrained eye looked pretty good. They were getting out of peripheral businesses; off-loading poor investments; consolidating ownership where they wanted 100% control and generally making the business more streamlined. They were also getting heavily into those god-awful morning radio 'shock-jocks' that pervade Australian radio, but which they seem to love. As I recall they also had a lucrative contract for outdoor advertising with the trains in Sydney. Be interesting to see if their H1 results are good. I've a feeling they will be.