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Oi_Oi_
There are better builders out there to consider as options.....
And also.... probably.... at bargain basement prices....
I say "probably", as I don't have a crystal ball and also, sadly, I don't drink with the Captain (Hindsight, I mean).
But forty years' or so track record for some of them does very much stand in their favour...
Strictly
Inland buying back their own shares looks criminally insane, with hindsight too. What were they thinking.........unless they thought it would show confidence in the business, when they knew, it was in a perilous position and needed to outwardly show that, to stop shareholders from selling. Shocking tbh. How do they get away with it. I'm just about even (having lost my investment I made over the last 3 years, having traded in and out of INL over the last 15 or so). What a waste of time and effort.
Himdsight is a wonderful thing
I guess the huge red flag was the rapid departure of newly appointed CEO Donagh O'Sullivan in Janury
Took one look at the contracts and thought this ain't for me .
Well, buysellfredmcfc, I'm not a clown as it's turned out, am i?
Looking forward to seeing charges brought against the former directors as the related party issue findings are published, must be time now surely, which could be far reaching, a sad ending to what was once an interesting business but was run as a private enterprise and not for the benefit of the non-director shareholders.
There’s the stink of fraud about the actions of certain directors and former directors. I hope they find themselves personally liable some way or another. I intend to assist in that process.
It doesn't even surprise me that INL have gone bust (or rather pretty much every subsidiary they've got so I'm assuming it's stuffed. It was staring us in the face for months.............but their RNS's seemed to speak otherwise................but we knew, deep down. Just didn't want to believe it.
They've been trying to sell Hugg Homes too (on linkedin - they'd put an advert on there couple of weeks ago).
We’re seeing boroughs play every trick in the book; from stretching out decisions, people going off ill, asking for more reports – some completely irrelevant – but you can’t say no as they’ll simply invalidate the application, which you’ll have to fight…..which achieves what they want, which is more time or they’ll ask for reports that are time-sensitive – usually to do with ecology where you can only conduct the report at certain times of the year……therefore it can’t be conducted til next year…….loads of things happening out of the public eye that are just simply wrong but what can you do?) Lots of these reports used to be dealt with under the conditions attached to a planning permission……..but the boroughs have cottoned-on that it’ll give them more time so they want them upfront or during the process. They think they’re being cute………but like S106/CIL, everything has an unintended consequence; it’s just they’re too stupid or too short-term in mentality or they literally don’t care right now to realise it.
I'm not sure whom was giving them advice or if they were getting any advice at all but part of me feels that the whole share buybacks thing was a way of trying to convey confidence in the business, even though they knew the true reality of the situation…….that the main-contracting business was in severe difficulties, brought on by the economic effects of covid (that no one really truly saw) and land sales weren’t coming through quick enough or profitably enough because planning permissions were taking way, way too long (not their fault - all planning boroughs are pretty much inundated with planning applications and they literally don't have the staff to deal with them in a timely manner.......and they've all realised that asking developers to engage with them early and extensively comes at a cost - in time, money and personnel – of which no borough has any of).
INL were caught between a rock and a hard place – fixed contracts going south on one hand and planning permission costs rising, and the holding costs of those sites rising too because they couldn’t sell a site until a planning permission had been consented.
I can understand the rationale of having the two businesses – each cross-polinising the other depending on how the economy is going but they’ve just been hit with a perfect storm……….that none of us, not even the Bank of England, foresaw. Not sure where it goes from here tbh. Perhaps boring fixed income might have been better (resi units or commercial units rented out). Who knows – it’s easy with hindsight.
From my perspective – I’m talking to a lot of land owners right now and there’s stress out there that’s for certain……….but cheap deals are not quite on the table yet because the stress isn’t at a level where vendors are prepared to meet the actual valuations the market economics we’re in, are currently generating. The banks are picking off the low hanging fruit of course (and thus fixed charge receivers etc etc are busy selling part-built sites or sites in receivership) but I’m not seeing the deals we saw in 2009/2010 yet…… time will tell however. Give it another 6 months (and let’s see how things are after the spring-selling season next year – traditionally a v v busy time of the year for developers). I think we’re in a v short selling window right now and that sales will dry up much earlier than normal in the run up to Xmas this year……and then we’ll see developers heavily discounting to get cash through the door.
Perhaps that’ll trickle into land owner’s minds and their price aspirations will fall too. We’ll see. I don’t mean to be doom and gloom on INL and the market but it’s my career and I’m in it right now; seeing what INL are going through in planning from my own perspective (it’s a horrible, long, depressing, expensive and risky thing getting planning at the moment. So arbitrary in decision making too from borough’s perspect
Vistry shares are up 40% in the past three months, most other house builders shares are off their lows.
The demand for accommodation in the U.K. is only increasing.
The lows of the cycle may be still to come; but the need for a company like INL , building on brown field sites, is apparent.
I bow to your greater knowledge of this industry.
I have no idea if INL will survive, but as some of their past developments have been excellent, I would like to see them prosper, when the cycle turns.
Always good to get others views.
Oi _Oi_,
I do wonder what the directors were thinking at the time in using their precious cash resources buying back their own shares at 28p a pop, as recently as a year ago, seeing as they've clearly been in bovver for longer than that....?
Strictly
the sp is going to fall out of it's **** and not just because of the covenant breach imo. macro-economic headwinds (look at the other housebuilder's share prices, look at the unbelievable news about vistry) - development at the moment is in freefall - house sales are way, way down, housebuilders have literally downed tools on house building unless that particular phase, or that house that they are builing, has been been exchanged upon. really bad. the sp is definitely not going up when it re-starts trading on aim imo.....(if it's soon).
I imagine this can be resolved with HSBC.
I am unsure as to how the SP may react to all the recent news.
Still expecting the SP to resume trading in near future, hopefully.
WORST...clown of clowns.
Thanks Oi_Oi, there's plenty to reflect on. I'm hoping the present Government's newly repeated commitment to build 1 million new homes over the life of this parliament /300k homes a year means something!
agree with the first part (about the numbers and report - it's all bitsa stuff imo too) but the share price re-rating after the suspension has been lifted? would love that to happen but i think there are headwinds on that front. it would be nice if they released an update on how the main contracting business is doing (key weakness) and if we're running out of money etc etc.
tough market to sell land in at the moment too. buying unconsented sites from non-developer owners is still tough but there's a modicum of stress in seller's circumstances at the moment meaning there's motivation but not necessarily 'cheap' sites available. but there's definitely deals to be done at prices that don't put you under water before you've even started on planning.
planning costs, particularly ecology and sustainablity and all the attendant other reports you have to produce have risen significantly this last 12 months or so, with a visible drop-off in performance too. planning timeframes are an absolute joke too - ridiculously long. and don't get me started on solicitors fees. they take the absolute **** for the service you actually receive and have significantly risen in the last 12 months (along with quite alot of consolidation of firms and some people i've used for 15 years retiring). not sure anyone is interested in that side of things but i'm at the coal-face buying sites at the moment around midlands etc etc. i feel like there's alot of people leaving the industry too but that's anecdotal.
The RNS at 2 pm today in my amateur opinion doesn't read too badly from a purely financial viewpoint the amounts involved are quite small and don't seem to indicate much of a loss to the Company, just slack/unprofessional Management with a disregard for the rules. once they can get last year's audited accounts and the interims out and suspension lifted I am expecting a significant rise in share price The economic big picture for the industry may limit be a negative but the recent business successes reported should help. Just my private shareholder's opinion any other views out there?
Https://find-and-update.company-information.service.gov.uk/company/05337416/officers and check out the persons with significant control too....
I think you'd seen my comment on advfn rather than here Sain :)
I'm a total pessimist at heart and was trying to turn over a new leaf.
Got to be honest; building affordable homes and making money out of it is only possible if schemes attract government grant-funding. It's just not a way to run a business imo. Look at the consolidation going on amongst RSL's at the moment (it's because they're all f*cked financially).
And 75.....worried all round tbh.
Saveloy No disrepect here but Harrison is 75
Let’s hope progress is made and Inl returns from suspension soon. The company of course remains a tempting target.
INL have also instructed an agent to sell 104 units are the above site in Soton too.
INL are hoping to raise £11.75m from the sale of 4 plots (3 resi plots, 1 wholly commercial plot) totalling 61 resi units.
INL have launched the sale of some of the smaller phases of the Hounslow Barracks consent today. Using an agent to do so (makes sense - go high and wide and get the details to as many people as possible)
10p paid, looks like a strong close in to suspension, good luck to holders.
Wonder if it will turn out that it's Wicks is the person subject to related party investigation? If so buying at a premium could be a belated attempt to garner some goodwill back. He sold as high as 83p+ so can afford to buy a bit back at 10p. Lots for auditors to unpick here.