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It is extraordinary on the face of it but I'm afraid that the city is populated with shisters and idiots that think it is fine to manipulate something like this to their own ends. The culture is simply terrible. End of year bonus, end of year bonus, end of year bonus and damn everything and everyone else. I knew a guy like this. He thought it was his divine right to earn a three million pound bonus every year and hang everyone else. He contributed, of course, f all to anything and was a completely self absorbed narcissist oaf. Shames is the City is still full of em. That's partly why I got out.
You are correct in that except for the LEC they are not that similar as they produce electricity from difference sources. Much cleaner from Infi but as yet not year round dependable. But steps are being taken to improve that as more storage solutions come to light. However, both were already facing a reduction in LEC before July 8 and were obviously working towards a zero. The news regarding Infinis has been positive recently but the mm's IMO have seen to it not improving the SP, hence my suspicions. I agree that Inis' SP is far lower than it should be but do not agree with you that Infi's dropped price has been because being oversold as on many days the buys far outstripped the sells and the SP was still pulled down.. Interesting reading about the Forex manipulation of the Libor matter.
Eh!! I don't come to conclusion that Infinis should have dropped the same as Drax! Infinis should have dropped more on the LEC news all other things being equal. The reasons why Infnis has dropped more again have to do with the possible balance sheet write downs on capitalised development costs, concerns over the dividends, institutional seller aside of Terra, the Tarr overhang etc etc. But I say again in my view Infinis is oversold and is now cheap. That's why I am buying it. But you cannot compare it to Drax.
Parki, hadn't read your latter emails before posting. However, if the two can't be compared how do you come to that Infinis should have dropped the same as Drax. You seem similar to a mm in that you make whatever of the data to suit your own purposes. My purpose is to get fairer market operations whatever the circumstances. They will have to answer sooner or later.
Yes but Drax has formally carried out or is carrying out a strategic review and so that could be the start of a process. Infinis has been trying to flog its 70% for an eternity with no takers. Drax is a much more of a UK strategic asset that Infinis and is dispatchable. We don't know what Dividend Infinis can pay as it has just lost 10-15% of its equity cashflows. Therefore I think Infinis will cut, all other things being equal, by say 20% that assuming it doesn't use the LEC to completely rebase the dividend down to a 5% yield on current share price or something like that - doubt it. The existing wind farms wont be producing more but the new projects will add MWh. But remember LFG is declining by 1-2% per annum and that still makes up bulk of EBITDA.
Infinis is also for sale and pays similar divi to what Drax is offering to pay. Leaving out the LEC payments which apply to both Drax & Infinis, Infinis's results were good and will be getting better due to the extra megawatts the wind is bringing in.
Fats the other issue is that there are institutional sellers of Infinis. hat will take some time to clear. Moreover Drax doesn't have a big stock overhang from Terra to deal with.
50%, got caught out after the budget, going to hold for a while and see what happens.
Sorry that wasn't very clear. The equity hit is much greater for Infinis as it is reasonably highly leveraged so the equity bears the brunt. Drax has little debt and so whilst the EBITDA hit was greater, as a proportion of the EV (which for Drax is equity) it is smaller. But same goes, you can't compare the two.
Cant compare the two. The value hit to Infinis is greater from the LEC loss plus Drax has effectively put itself up for sale the hence the rise in the SP in the last three trading sessions. So no comparison at all.
Judging by DRAX SP revival Infinis SP should be 176p. Even accounting for the full divi INFI should be minumum of 164p not the 139p or so it is today. Have the mm' not been able to by enough shares yet at the low price the mm's have pulled INFI down to?
July 9 should read July 8
Regarding your supposition the "What's happened to Infinis is nothing to do with the mms!". Both Drax and Infi lost 30% due to the same reason on July 9th. As you suppose: by the RO rebranding; then by the elimination of the RO early; then by the removal of the LEC". . . . . . . So how do the mm's get to that Drax is now 14% below July 9 peak yet Infi is still 30% below July 9 peak. (Despite all the good news regarding Infinis's Intrinsic values).. It has IMO come about by mm's totally unfair manipulation of the SP's. Time the market was cleaned up somewhat to resemble a proper market..
I think it's fair today you got your intrinsic value wrong!! What's happened to Infinis is nothing to do with the MMs! The equity was overvalued to begin with; it gets hit by the RO rebranding; then by the elimination of the RO early; then by the removal of the LEC. It's a highly geared equity because of the project finance and bonds and its halved. That's it. No conspiracy. You got the initial value wrong then you got a Tory government which hates renewables. Bingo 137p. Now its cheap. Buy some!
NA100: I also took out the bulk of my cash earlier this year for similar reasons. Over a lot of years I only made a very small profit overall, therefore a loss taking everything into cons. Put the bulk into property now worrh 18% more. Have only a small stake in a number of stock market entities.. Like you I won't be putting my money back in shares, thats for sure. Let the greedy p'gs devour themselves, I'll just be prodding them on their way. I give Infi a Strong Buy opinion as I believe it is, (but for the antics of the mm's). Can't be trusted to do their job properly. As for the FCA, seems they think they are just 'extra tax' collectors for the government I fear that they fear a market crash. Notice the FTSE is still the same as it was pre 2000 yet property prices have boomed despite the 2008 problems. That explains a lot.
As a long term investor in Infinis almost 2 years now and having lost 10 k in the mm play a few weeks back I was hoping to recover a few of my losses with the occasional little win. It really has taken until today for me to say never again. Whatever happened to fair play and market forces. When theres 3 times the amount of buyers than sellers the buyer is happy to pay the premium SP in the rising market. Its basic economics. For the mm to just alter a SP in a rising market doesn't make any sense at all unless its purely an excercise in shaking the tree to see who will fall out. Losing sight of the bigger picture and market gains from rising SP they prefer to lower the SP without reason, kill off the rising market and punish the investor for investing. All very well saying you need to be in it for the long term but if the mm keeps on reducing the sp everytime it looks like the markets rising who benefits as an investor it makes no sense to invest here.
Yes, exactly my point. What I see is mm's quite often arranging, (to put it politely), a SP sometimes regardless of its intrinsic value. Hence mm's adjusting this (and others) SPs in the direction that suits them, quite often out of sync with an intrinsic value.
You are confusing the intrinsic value of an equity with those who trade it. If intrinsic value (ie discounted value of future equity cashflows) is say 100p and the shares are at 50p then, all other things being equal, the shares are worth investing in. Market makers have no impact on intrinsic value assuming the Company's capital structure is ok.
Parkside you are quite right, with the further point, how does any pi know when to invest. What can they go on? Especially long term investment may well mean loss of all a pi's money in that share. Who can be trusted when it seems many purporting to operate under the rules, are not..
Or at least one of the many reasons why!
That's why you should invest long term!!
Parkside I agree with you again regarding "If you try to with no patience you might lose a grand". (Maybe more), all down to mm's forgetting their covenants. (often multiple more buys as sells and the SP is pulled down!!!!!!.
No not exactly but it'll be tight. I wouldn't get over worried as I'm sure they can refinance or change the terms if needs be but there are lots of moving parts here and so it'll continue to be volatile. But the value is there long term. You can't trade this. If you try to with no patience you might lose a grand!!
Prags: You must be asking about the mm's and their covenants, if they remember them.
parkside 13 - thanks for your useful posts. Do you know how close they are to breaching their covenants as that could you critical to the value of this company ?