Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
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Any idea why we are at 5p then?
PlantedBHA / ngms27 would the pair of you get a room.
I've explained before (both of you started clogging the board up)the produced water whether its perched or not, is just recycled and cleaned up via hydrocyclones or what ever oily water clean up system they have onboard then discharged over the side. I think off the top of my head the AM has a water handling capacity of 20000 bbld the worst that happens with a lot of water is that it makes the pumps rattle a bit more, so until the water cut is 50% or more there's no need to worry at present.
RT says it takes a few days after a trip or shut down for the water rate to stabilise, what he didn't say also that you generally get around 2 to 3 days of flush production, "ie" upto 20% more.
On a fag packet calculation we (those who hold) should have around $200mill in the bank, based on $206k a day profit from the 1st April.(at current oil prices including the hedge)
The 230 mill bond isn't due until July 2022.
OGA have said last years 9800bbopd find can't be tied back to AM, that is probably there final answer, even though HURR/Spirit may continue to argue the case. So they will have to PA the well but the oil is there & the probably will come back to it at a later date.
GLTALTH
Get that Moody chart out already lol
ngms; you're writing b00llocks on a subject you profess to be an expert on. Now, let's see some fluid-dynamics equations (or, better, as you profess to 'knowing' them by dint of stating such things as facts) some calculations with real numbers in them, that support your statement. Your 'not equal to 1:1' is tripe; 'preferential flow' has fa to do with volumetric ratios, to any significance, anyway. But is does have a lot to do with viscosity, density and Re......
Generally this bb is good for open opinion and (almost) everyone is very supportive of that, but with monotonous regularity an up-popper arrives with a continual diatribe against the co'y, often repetetively listing 'downsides' in what one might surmise is their full-time employment. Obviously on a serious agenda, these donkeys think they make a difference - which they might, but only to a small degree. Your posting fits this pattern. Now, let's have a serious discussion re the 'preferential flow' regime between water and oil, huh. I've given you a clue: Re.
gla
The 8 well is planned already
PlantedHBA, drill what? where? where's the OWC?
Better to complete the Technical Review and look at options, most likely sidetracks IMHO.
The OGA wouldn't let Lincoln Crestal be tied back though.
So, if your saying that production is going to fall off a cliff in the next 5 months and management thought you were correct they wouldn’t have looked into using a rig they had on contract sitting idle for a few months.
BS
Without a doubt, another (dry) producer is most desperately needed. Lincoln Crestal perhaps tied back after all? They have the long lead sub-sea kit already purchased for it. But Spirit Energy are in a complete mess and they have half of that resource now.
Plus you can double the $75m for tie back to the FPSO.
PlantedHBA, they are carrying out a Technical Review the results of which will be published in September. They are hardly going to commit to a $75m plus drill until they have a much clearer understanding of what's happening.
Plus the OGA would likely not sanction such a drill until they have confirmed the OWC as currently required.
Mk111, I don't short end of.
Obviously hurricanes management don’t agree or they would have brought forward spending on the 8 well and gone digging with the rig that they just let off contract .
ngms27, you're convinced that HUR is in terminal decline.
You may well be correct. I don't. A tight corner perhaps, but there are always solutions.
I suggest you short Hur ( if you haven't already) as it must seem a penalty kick in your book.
If you haven't shorted this stock can you explain why?
"My personal opinion is that they will be lucky to exit 2020 on 12000 bopd combined from both wells."
Agreed. No better than evens chance I'd say. Might even water out almost completely.
SpruceGoose2,
The proofs in the pudding. Just look at well 7z for an easy example and well 6 for one that's less obvious at present.
But you can check the maths is you really want to around preferential flow.
Does this take a week ?
PlantedHBA, when they switch on the ESP they will have to do various tests to establish at what rates they can produce at whilst maintaining well stability.
Think of a gravity fed shower and one with a pump.
ngms: "Every % of water reduces oil production in a more than 1:1 ratio due to fluid dynamics."
In my experience, a volumetrically-quantified material exchange at the same temperature does not induce a significantly unequal volume in the counterparty.
Please elucidate.
gla
Is it not stable ?
Just clutching at straws. They will require some downtime to switch over to the ESP production and stabilise the well.
Sorry, I’m laughing out loud now.
"Yes but it's not switched on...
The devils in the detail"
Yes you're right the devil is in the detail! The have been commissioned so your statement was incorrect that you alluded to them needing to be commissioned. If they are not currently switched on is a different matter. That's the detail
Stu,
On Capital Markets Day at the end of April the single well tests (test 5 specifically) at that point showed a maximum stable output for Well 6 approx 14500bopd with about 4.5% water cut. Opening the choke further would only produce instability.
Now we are 12000bopd and 12% water cut. Its not unreasonable to suggest this is as good as it will get now on natural flow no matter what you care to do with the choke. In fact if they open the choke further I'll wager that they suck up more water and bring judgement day that much closer.
Given the water cut is increasing, even if the STOIIP is massive with great connectivity oil production is only going to go one way.
My personal opinion is that they will be lucky to exit 2020 on 12000 bopd combined from both wells.
I don’t concur