Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
London South East prides itself on its community spirit, and in order to keep the chat section problem free, we ask all members to follow these simple rules. In these rules, we refer to ourselves as "we", "us", "our". The user of the website is referred to as "you" and "your".
By posting on our share chat boards you are agreeing to the following:
The IP address of all posts is recorded to aid in enforcing these conditions. As a user you agree to any information you have entered being stored in a database. You agree that we have the right to remove, edit, move or close any topic or board at any time should we see fit. You agree that we have the right to remove any post without notice. You agree that we have the right to suspend your account without notice.
Please note some users may not behave properly and may post content that is misleading, untrue or offensive.
It is not possible for us to fully monitor all content all of the time but where we have actually received notice of any content that is potentially misleading, untrue, offensive, unlawful, infringes third party rights or is potentially in breach of these terms and conditions, then we will review such content, decide whether to remove it from this website and act accordingly.
Premium Members are members that have a premium subscription with London South East. You can subscribe here.
London South East does not endorse such members, and posts should not be construed as advice and represent the opinions of the authors, not those of London South East Ltd, or its affiliates.
PlantedBHA
20K Bopd was the rate before down time. The Company have never said they expect to produce at this rate 100%.
The rate after down time, or what might be described as the average rate was initially 17k which was the upped to 18k.
Assuming 31% watercut and 15k bopd. Utilisation of the FPSO would be 62%.
Ways of maximising efficiency reduces as watercut increases.
"Like you, I think Sheila will get close to 20k bbls per day."
At 20k bopd, 42% is the maximum watercut Aoka Mizu can handle.
Any higher than 42% water cut and production of oil would be forced to be reduced as a result.
Slift.
What price hurricane shares if rns gets close to 20k bbls a day?
how did you get 31% water cut?
well 6 was at 8% for natural flow of 12000. then went to 11% after ESP enabled more oil to be flowed
at present total production is at 15000 with both wells and ESP...I am suspecting that the majority of oil is from well 6 with lower cut 11%..therefore even though well 7 has greater water cut ( the most i have ever seen mentioned is a stable 25-30%) the average will be in between the well 7 figure and nearer the well 6
lets say well 6 produces 13484 b of liquid (12000 oil + 8% water 1484 )
then if well 6 produces 4286 b of liquid (3000 oil and 30% water 1286)
gives 2770 b of water out of 17770 liquid eg just under 16%
There is no way it is anywhere near 31%
Like you, I think Sheila will get close to 20k bbls per day.
That’s not too shabby in my view
Aoka Mizu only operating at 70% Fluid capacity if I remember correctly, so still have a ways to maximise efficiency.
Hi CaptainSwag,
"yes it is currently manageable and can accommodate more."
Water production increased with the reintroduction of well 7z with the ESPs?
"yes it is currently manageable and can accommodate more."
At 15k oil production, it's manageable until 57% combined water cut.
Assuming the current water cut levels (combined) are at 31%, yes it is manageable
At 20k oil production, the manageable water cut is 42%.
ALL IMO.
slift
water production increased with the reintroduction of well 7
yes it is currently manageable and can accommodate more.
ESP will increase production and hopefully drain out perched water quicker
I calculated revenue to end of June is approx $95-100m
Where do you find an extra 135m for the rest of the year at 15k barrels and $43?
and where do you find an extra 198m for the rest of the year at 19k barrels and $43?
Ofcourse oil production is important. But there's several questions arising from the water cut:
- has water production reduced?
- Is current water cut manageable? I.e can it be handled by FPSO's water handling facility?
- What has ESPs done to water cut?
15000 bbls a day at 43$ - 235 million $ a year
If 19000 bbls a day at 43$ - 298 million $ a year
The amount of oil is also important I think ?
If water has reduced and doctor trice is right with perched theory.
Give me a number for hurricane shares ?
Q1 Results:
14900 bopd average
17% watercut
Breaking the above down:
Jan:
Well 6 production of 12.5k bopd average
Water cut approx 7.5%
Feb:
Unknown
But using mass balance around Q1, february combined 6 and 7z production of 12,000 bopd average.
As above, february combined watercut at 16.9%
March:
Well 6 at 12k bopd + Well 7z at 8k bopd average
Water cut 6k bwpd - "predominantly from well 7z"
Combined water cut at 23%
Again, using mass balance we can estimate well 6 at 7.5-10% and well 7z at 50-60%
Q2 Results:
14300 bopd average
21% watercut
Breaking above Q2 down:
April 1 -21st:
18.5k bopd combined
Watercut at 26% combined
Capital markets day confirm that "current (April 27)" water cuts of 46% from well 7z, and 7% in well 6.
April 22nd - May 17th:
Unknown
Again using mass balance, 16700 bopd average from 6 and 7z
As above, combined water cut 30.8%
May 17th - June 5th:
10.3k bopd from well 6
Watercut at 8% from well 6
June 5th - End of June:
12k bopd from well 6
watercut 11%
Several things to note here:-
- The combined water cut before well 7z was shut down was 30.8%
- The 7z water production is currently 60-65% (in line with rates prior to shutdown)
- The question is, has ESPs reduced this water cut? Until the next operational update, we don't know.
Slift.