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You're an idiot of the highest order...TROLL boy!
Agreed.
The laws of supply and would demand would normally require more demand to justify such a large movement in the value of the business. Something smells fishy to me, could be good, could be bad. It's normally bad though.
Slow ascent with the very low volumes. This would trade with average volumes of 500,000 per day when the SP was trading above 250p.
SP Angel specialise in pointing out the obvious. Their latest insight is the company has no direction. Erm yes, three years without a single company announcement related to business strategy and opex/capex tends to be considered lacking in direction. The only insightful news we will get will be from the FSA when they finally get round to investigating Mr Khotin.
Taken from the stockopedia board: Exillon Energy - The Highest Stockrank of all Tuesday, Nov 22 2016 by alan000@yahoo.com 6 comments 4 The Highest Ranked Stock on Stockopedia is currently Exillon Energy (EXI), with a QVM Rank of 99 (95 Quality, 96 Value, 77 Momentum). It is also well regarded by the algorithms of Magic Formula (A+) and a Piotroski F score of 8. Taken at Face Value, the numbers on the Stockopedia page are as follows. A Market Cap of £191m, but with net cash of £84m. Enterprise Value therefore £107m. The Brokers Forecast on the Stocko page for net profit in 2016 is $37.7m (£30.4m) and for $57.6 (£46.5m) in 2017. This implies a P/E of around 3 for next year, or closer to 2 if you adjust for the Cash. The Broker forecasts a 2017 Divi of $0.176 which implies a yield of 12%.
SP Angel seem to have put out a report on the 12 December anyone seen it? There's a extract on proactive investors site
The Moscow Post has a very interesting lead article on Mr Khotin this evening. I wonder if the FSA bothers to read Russian newspapers?
The change is production is neglible, well within normal non-drilling related monthly production changes. Production rates are not even the issue right now. It is the very obvious fraudulent behaviour of one particular shareholder who had absolute control over the companies activities. Nothing that isn't independently audited can be trusted, whether that be production rates or the depositing of the companies cash reserves. This company does not need to be scrutinised by analysts but by the FCA. This is a case of obvious fraud.
Production up! Finally! It's possible they are turning on the taps following opec decision? And with an extra $10 on the oil price should add somewhere around 50m to revenues per year? Looking reasonably bright for oilers at the moment
Until production in West Siberia fields doubles to say 25k barrels per day, they will not be able to make use of economy of scale to increase net back per barrel. With current 2p reserves they ought to be doing just over 30k per day with WS in late 20s per day and TP over 6/7 per day. Interesting they speak to an external group rather than address the shareholders
Interesting post regarding the Margelov interview re OPEC and consolidation in the sector. It looks positive in the sense EXI might benefit from the OPEC cut next week and with the shares barely trading above cash value there seems little downside from here. Possible top up on Monday and hopefully the shares might recover some of the lost ground in recent weeks. 6% rise on Friday suggests the market agrees albeit in thin trading
Good to see production stabilising and no longer decreasing at the rate in previous months. Seems to be the best numbers since April and hopefully as new wells come on line the production will start to increase from here
Concerning Russia's offers to join OPEC in curbing output, a suggestion balked at by some large producers, Margelov said he was confident Exillon and others like it would be unaffected, not least due to questions of implementation. "I don't think someone would ever want to freeze the production of a small and independent producer like Exillon -- they don't have any mechanism to do this. I don't think [the government] would like to change taxation right now because people are worried about this," he said. The government "would take measures that would apply to governmental companies like Gazprom Neft, Rosneft, because it's easier." As for the Russian upstream market, Margelov said asset holders currently tended to have an inflated view of the value of their assets, but were likely to modify this as financial stresses on the sector increase. If past cycles are anything to go by, some upstream assets may end up in the hands of banks, which would then want to offload them, he added. "There are some assets that are intended to be sold, but their owners still believe the oil price is around $100/b and expect too much. It takes time for asset owners to understand what the fair price is. Now we will see that some companies will not be able to pay their debts to commercial banks and maybe in some years we will see that some banks got some nice assets just as security... Then of course they would like to sell them," Margelov said. "In two or three years we will see a wave of interesting M&A transactions in Russia."
As a company, "we are in a very strong position and we have every chance to develop our production and sometime maybe in future to acquire new assets," he added. Exillon is currently producing around 15,000 b/d of light, low-sulfur oil, most of it from the Kayumovskoe and Lumutinskoe fields in West Siberia, plus some in the Timan Pechora basin in Russia's far north. It plans a new drilling program in the first half of next year aimed at reviving its declining output. The reboot of the company follows a change of ownership in 2013 in which property investors Alexei Khotin and Alexander Klyachin took the place of Kazakh businessman Maksat Arip as its largest shareholders. Margelov said Exillon had slashed its drilling expenditure at the time of the oil price downturn in 2014, but had now accumulated $100 million of cash, enabling it to take advantage of much-reduced prices in the supply chain and associated rig availability. This is likely to mean horizontal drilling, but from existing wells. Exillon's core West Siberian fields benefit from a tax exemption applicable to challenging geologies, but its estimated lifting costs last year were just $3.3/b and it benefits from easy access to transport infrastructure. The company has avoided entering long-term sales contracts, preferring to be flexible on how it sells its oil, which has an API gravity of around 41 and sulfur content of just 2.2% for the west Siberian fields. The majority of its revenue was from domestic sales last year and it has estimated oil reserves of 500 million barrels. In terms of costs, Margelov said the tendency of larger companies to carry out more drilling in-house and reduce their use of service companies was a boon for upstream independents. "Prices for drilling services in Russia are now really low. There are a lot of companies that have their drill rigs standing with no bidders -- they're very flexible, both on pricing and in terms of payment."
http://www.platts.com/latest-news/oil/london/interview-new-exillon-energy-chief-sees-robust-26604702 Interview: New Exillon Energy chief sees robust future for Russian independent sector London (Platts)--24 Nov 2016 The head of Russia's Exillon Energy, Dmitry Margelov, has predicted a secure future for the country's independent upstream sector, but says a surge of merger and acquisition activity could be on the cards in the next two to three years. In an interview, Margelov, who became chief executive of the London-listed company in March, said he saw little threat to the independent sector from the centralizing tendencies seen in Russia's oil industry in recent years. He also played down the significance of any effort by Moscow to curb oil output in collaboration with OPEC, saying the burden of such a move would probably fall on large companies. "I think our government is interested in having independent producers," Margelov said. "For now I don't see any political risks for our company." "Yes, there is a process of centralization, but from my point of view this pretty strange and unpredictable situation with Bashneft is not a sign that now all assets will go to Rosneft," he said, referring to state-controlled Rosneft's recent acquisition of Bashneft, a deal that led to bribery charges against a government minister.
I have posted virtually nothing related to EXI share price predictions. Nearly every single post has been sharing of information relating to the companies (opaque) activities. Whether that correlates with the share price movement has not been my concern. Try looking at the context of my posts and that might make some sense to you. I personally couldn't give a sh*t about your buy and sell points.
Gambier, You have really called exi very poorly for months .All its done is constantly go up despite you saying how bad it is. Nevertheless, today I have sold up and taken my profit . Your latest post regarding the Moscow Times means I'm no longer prepared to take the risk , just in case. I'll revisit in the New year.
Crikee!
1) Well, who is criminal in the oil and gas industry is decided literally by Putin. There is no way of predicting what will happen to Khotin, we only have the Russian media to rely on. 2) Corruption within AIM/small cap listing is rarely found until after the event. Everything about the arrangement within Exillon Energy is obviously not independent of Khotin and it is blatantly obvious that there are no checks and balances. FSA have done nothing. It will not be until the money disappears, the assets are stripped and somebody is in handcuffs will the FSA do anything. By then it will be too late and the FSA will merely advise shareholders of their position. 3) It can't be nationalised, it was never an official state asset. It could be delisted and disappear into the ether. 500 million barrels of 2P reserves. A $15 per barrel netback even at oil an price below $40. No debt. $120 million dollars cash reserves. Tens of millions of dollars of infrastructure. Somebody is going to get rich and it won't be small shareholders.
Yes there is a fundamental failing somewhere if a company is listed on the lse (or even being able to be traded at all), and there is criminal charges happening with people to do with said company. How comes this share hasn't been suspended? Could it end up being nationalised? If I dare, could I ask what your prediction is for the ultimate endgame with this company? thanks.
Business in Russia is a rat infested criminal swamp. With Exillon Energy being one of the few listed Russian companies on the LSE you would think the FSA would have the time and resources to watch a single company that is very likely to be breaking the rules for maintaining a listing. As with Ferrexpo and JKX, the FSA have completely failed. What small investors do not seem to realise is how incompetent and weak the FSA are, they assume their investments are being carefully looked after. The FSA always arrives after the event, when your money has long disappeared. Not a single news agency has taken up these events either. Ordinary people sat home using Google are more active in the monitoring and the analysis of the behaviour of small cap/AIM listed companies. It is an appalling state of affairs.
Thanks for reply. Been having a read up on those names. At least some sort of action is being taken now. Something hopefully may be found/recovered. What IS the matter with that lot? Is it just pure greed, or something else? Already incredibly wealthy individuals, going on the steal??!! Conundrum.
Was invested, sold a few months back. According to the Moscow Post this evening, Economy Minister Alexei Ulyukayev, who has just been arrested for bribery, is the man who protects Khotin. They claim that bank Ugra deposits have been funnelled into hidden Khotin accounts. They claim he is now on the run as it is likely Ulyukayev will reveal everything in order to save his own skin. This would suggest that Exillons $126 million deposited in Bank Ugra is gone. One might guess that many others things within the company have been stripped. The FSA have done nothing about this share for the last three years when it was obvious it was being run for the benefit of one shareholder. I'm just a simple private trader and I have found all this out. There is an obvious breach of rules regarding related parties, but still nothing is done.
Thanks for the info. Your research is pretty extensive on exi, well done. Are you invested? Is does all sound a bit dodge, but then again, it could be the norm for the way things are done in Russia. Its odd how the share price seems to be still quite active though, considering there seems to be zero volumn of trades?