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Upbeat with confirmation from Emma and Simba's showing significant rise in online e-commerce sales. Generally across the board, e-commerce will continue to do well despite shops reopening, Covid-19 has given a leg-up for consumer habits shifting to e-shopping. The saying goings a rising tide lifts all boats. With 7.5 mil in bank, gives it the confidence and acceleration to outperform.
Hi D. I only "come back" as you say because I am posed a question or see a comment of particular interest. I mean no malicious harm, and indeed if I thought the risk reward was skewed to the upside I would certainly buy in again.
I would point out though on another thread here that the other companies have done extremely well but I think that EVE stood out by omission. I would have thought if sales had been record breaking or "bumper " than the CEO would have said. Nothing has as yet changed my mind to the sales outlook being positive but with a small "p" and indeed now with hindsight, progress by inches rather than yards seems to be accurate. I quite accept that the next update could be excellent but based on what has been said in the recent update and then in a sense confirmed by other foam mattress makers being more upbeat, confirms that its going to be a long haul. I have said before but it bears repeating I think with the enthusiasm of other posters here, that EVE has not turned a corner. It is still loss making. Its closer to trading profitably but not there yet. Once it proves its viability then, and only then will it be rerated and until then the jury is still out. I honestly don't see this as negative per se just as it is. Everything could turn out wonderfully and I hop for all holders it does, no question. All I am saying is that don't let emotion get ahead of the facts. Yes, it is doing much better at controlling costs and buying the time to continue to turn the business around, but the fact it has lost over 99% of its value makes it a long shot, statistically, to survive. As long as holders understand the downside and are comfortable with it then that's absolutely fine. As I say, good luck to all.
Eve sleep is IMO in the best situation it is financially than it has ever been in the history of its establishment. Yet it is valued inversely compared to the days of when it was valued at 100mil+... now it has turned a milestone with positive steps towards profitability; Downside risk is limited with 7.5 mil cash in bank, 3 mil market cap... upside potential is relatively significant. The doom and gloom of survivability is already priced in to the current SP with forced selling from Woodford; so I think at these levels, it substantially undervalues the company. DYOR.
Wyndrum, you seem to wish to paint the most negative picture possible for a company you have left for greener pastures; why waste your time? One wonders why? Fancy coming back at a lower price again soon? In fact there were many positives in the RNS (far more than some previous ones I remember) and, personally, I shall expect the price to be higher in the future – albeit it could take a while. You talk about going bust when that is most unlikely for a long at the current rate, and when sales have just been described as "good" in May.
This isn't a profitable company that just had a bad year and had losses.
Every month they loose money they don't have then 7m in the bank. And if the next 6 months are not as good as the last and they burn through £200k per month then while they will still have plenty of net cash, the market would just see no progress and then you can decide what the SP might be.
This is it for EVE, the next 6-12 months is all or nothing in my opinion. This is a very high risk share with a reasonable to high expectation it will go bust or revert into private hands. Which is fine but just be aware is all I am saying.
Why would EVE be desperate to get cash flow in when they are currently in a £7m net cash position and burning £0.1m per month? Their latest trading update was positive and that has not been reflected in this current price
Hi BD, I genuinely don't know but what does a "positive Marketing contribution" mean? Does it mean trading profitably, (it may well do but why not say that?) I have not come across this phrase before when reading reports either updates or finals etc. Certainly if EVE have been trading profitably for the last 8 months then that does put a different slant on things to a degree but I still think with retail opening up it will be harder and at the same time imagine, and I am just guessing here, there will be discounts galore to shift stock and to get any sort of cash flow in. All I'm saying is that I will be surprised if there is a quick turnaround in this company, in which case, if I'm right the SP may not move much. If the idea is to make money from buying the shares the return has to be weighed against the timeframe.
So when you (anyone), buys shares, what do you expect to make against what you invested? what price does it go to for you to sell? How long will you hold them for to get your expected return?
Although the outcomes are unknowable you should have in your mind an expectation of results before you buy the stock.
If you (anyone) haven't then, what are you doing? Placing a bet for an unknowable period of time with no realistic goal of what success would be. And all the time, you could lose some or all of your investment.
Therefore there is the risk/reward element. I (and I am pretty typical), buy on at least a 3-1 risk reward and if I cant justify that then I either don't take the bet or get out if things have changed.
I Bought EVE at 1.15 with a view to get out at 1.0p -.90p if the results were poor.my expectation was for 1.75 and hopefully beyond, as we know on the day selling priced spiked to 1.7 and I waited and eventually got out later at 1.4p when it seemed clear to me the market was not impressed. (not devastated just, ho hum).
Anyway, lots of stocks out there and it pays never to get emotionally attached to any bit of company paper, but that is easier said then done! All the best
Wydrum come on your trying to pull the wool over.... 'The concern I have is that if EVE could not push into profit in these exceptional circumstances ' ... I suggest you read the RNS carefully, let me pull out a snippet..
Most importantly, with the focus on moving to profit and cash generation, the Company has achieved a positive marketing contribution for the Period. eve has now delivered a positive marketing contribution for the eight month period commencing September 2019.
So the reported period covered March & April of the CV exceptional circumstances as you put it...
They also stated May was good. Let's stick to the facts and access the true impact CV has to the bottom line for EVE when they report there next set of figures.. so maybe EVE has boomed for April May and June just like your friend, we just don't know but I suspect the next set of results may have a rather positive effect on the SP...
GLA esp long term holders..
Wyndrum: "As I say we don't buy the product we buy the shares". In fact we bought our mattress long before I bought the shares! It was owning the mattress that made me follow the sp. I first bought at 18p thinking it couldn't fall any lower (lol)..
Wyndrum: "no usp and its not (according to my pal) a particularly good mattress for the money" In fact we are delighted with ours and another mattress in the range is a Which? Best Buy.
Unfortunately I have only lost on Eve so far but hope for long term gains. I can see that anyone who first bought around 0.8p could have done extremely well. I wish I'd waited!
Good luck elsewhere and I do imagine you have time – maybe plenty of time – to take your profits elsewhere before you perhaps return. As CEO Cheryl says:"(Eve has) always had ambitions to be much more than just a mattress company' so I do see plenty of long-term potential.
The concern I have is that if EVE could not push into profit in these exceptional circumstances then its clearly going to be tough and presuming it stays afloat, a long, long process to meaningful profit to affect the SP. It has no usp and its not (according to my pal) a particularly good mattress for the money. Now, the new CEO might be excellent at marketing but if the product is not brilliant then all the clever marketing in the world won't sustain it. Anyway, that's the bear case. As I say we don't buy the product we buy the shares and I have (albeit somewhat flukely) made quite a turn on EVE over the last couple of years dipping in and out, up to and including last week. For now though i'll sit this out and wait for events unfold further. (I moved most of my funds into retail particularly. on DC. and HFD and hopefully the next 2-4 weeks should prove profitable, certainly DC> shot up yesterday. Good luck to all.
The CEO Is working hard to get the Eve name out there and also repeated the point of sales in an interview this week (found here: https://www.festivalofmarketing.com/festival-blog-2020/interview-with-eve-sleeps-cheryl-calverly )
We saw a big increase in purchases of single beds, pillows and bedding as customers sought to house unexpected guests for longer than planned, and set up additional bedrooms for isolating. And we saw an increase in people buying things like toppers, looking to upgrade their bed without having to invest fully in a mattress. It’s been a fascinating time.
Hi Wyndrum, very interesting that your MD of an online mattress delivery company has had three months of record deliveries. That may actually fit in with Eve's RNS where they say 'while trading in May has been good following initial disruption from the coronavirus lockdown.' However, could it be that your contact has actually had TWO good months as March was the start of the pandemic and people were really very unsure of what the future held. Even Halfords's shares dipped severely when it actually turned out their bikes were selling like hot cakes once people appreciated the 'new normal'. If May was good for Eve I can't see why June and July won't be good for them too, like your contact's experience.
You've all read this from the RNS which continues, and illustrates that they are moving out of 'just' mattresses: 'Eve said sales of its premium mattress range and bedframes "continue to exhibit strong demand", while there has been an increase in sales of its pillows, bedding, toppers and single mattresses as households adapt to life in lockdown'.
It is a shame that the sp didn't immediately respond better to this news but we can hope for better when / if next update confirms a continued increase in sales.
Every body, your absolutely right in the bull case for EVE but the point that you must keep in mind in case you are tempted to over commit is that this company has never made any money and is still not making any money, so nothing is a bargain here yet, and its certainly not a steal presently. The update specifically said that :
"Notwithstanding resilient trading to date, there is clearly uncertainty around the trading environment for the remaining seven months of the financial year, including the ongoing strength of consumer demand and industry competition, as store based retailers advance their plans to re-open as early as June,"
To put that further into context I know the MD of an online Mattress delivery co. He has boomed over the last 3 months with record month after record month of deliveries. He has never seen anything like it, that's why in part I though the EVE update would benefit with greater sales, but if it did it seemed muted to me.
So, who knows, this might recover and go on to great things but as I said up top this is not in my opinion a recovering stock yet, simply one who has stemmed the losses to buy more time, and if they could not establish a profitable model yet with all the previous costly advertising to generate enough sales, how do they do it now on a shoe string?
I've played this game for 40 years and the lesson beyond all others and its the old cliché, don't bet more than you can afford to lose. So, if EVE (or any stock you have) went bust tomorrow make sure your loss does not affect your quality of life.
Hold your nerve ladies and gents. Some valid points have been made about the model, but that doesn't negate the fact that EVE is mega-oversold - especially when you consider the the firm's cash situation (£7.5M in the bank), and compare it to other concerns on AIM.
At this moment in time, everyone is fearful - owing to COVID. And what we're seeing is a forced realignment of the economy.
But so much of this plays in to EVE's hands...
- Retails parks are on life-support. Even the 'hold-out' consumers have now moved over to eCommerce.
- International competitors - eg. Caspar - are leaving the UK to focus on their home market.
- EVE has an established brand, and it's unlikely newcomers will emerge
In short, 1.3p a share is a steal. EVE is with the trend on every front. Just my opinion of course.
These prices are IMO are a Bargain and I don't think we will see these levels again in the next few months. Jupitar is clearing the overhang from the small remaining shareholdings they have left. I can only see this trending upwards with limited downside risk from here on. DYOR
End of the day the share price is completed disconnected from the company's actual value due to Woodford forced selling of over 40% of this company. A bit of interest from any serious buyer, could be PE, M&A, wealthy individual would drive this in a completely different direction. 3 mil market cap VS 7.5mil in bank with limited cash burn per month seriously under values this business.
Yes, progress is slow, but definitely in a positive direction. Eve are branching out from 'just' mattresses. I couldn't easily find the figure for non-mattress sales / revenue but this is in the 2019 Annual Report:
'Good progress was also made with the expansion of wider sleep products including the launch of new bed frames and bedding, all of which has driven a 140 bps and 590 bps year–on–year increase in the contribution from non-mattress
sales in the UK&I and France respectively. Range expansion has also supported an improvement in the customer repeat rate, increasing 230 bps in the UK&I and 360 bps in France.'
er.. not really, its in a trading range having failed to break through on the results. Certainly it could go up but equally down or guess what.... carry on bobbing around. You may have surmised from my last posts that I was disappointed and have sold my holding. I think this is going to be slow, not explosive and I must say the jury is still out as to whether this is a viable business model, and if it is how profitable. The concept of memory foam, in a box, 100 night return, Mattresses are not new any more. So you have to carry on converting people to move away from their current style. And they are expensive when Mattresses start from £100. At £500 there are many decent maybe better value products out there. Ultimately I don't care as I am not buying a mattress but a piece of paper with the amount of shares printed on it. But presently I am not convinced at all that this is a long term hold. Just my opinion
Even for a novice charts are blatantly obvious.
Next move up.