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My bad, I missed that one. Either they know something I don't or they're going to regret selling... I hope it's the latter!
April 14th,Erin invest which Dyani has an interest in sold 1,800,000 shares and have no further plans to sell more for foreseeable . Seems like they are all at it.
The 23rd Jan RNS covers Horst Siffrin selling and states they have no further intention of selling and agree to a 90 day lock-in period. This was already untrue when the RNS was published because there was a further chunk of shares already sold that wasn't declared in this RNS.
Dayani's RNS on 5th April doesn't mention whether he intend to sell further or not.
But it's still a screw up from the board with the lack of communication.
Great prospects for the company and a great entry price but it's surely putting off potential buyers wondering just how many shares the big guys have left to sell.
When I see the trade size - it's so small I don't think the punters behind these orders have any clue...
look I remain firm on my view that FY23 will be a turnaround, profitability incoming coupled to operating leverage will lead to margin expansion. STRONG BUY
Think that was Dayani that wouldnt sell anymore for the foreseeable however far that is. They have totally screwed up here. If the directors were more open with each other this could all have been sorted in a more orderly fashion than some director selling millions on the open market and the board buying back shares at over £1.50. Total shambles. Maybe thats w hat the market is saying. All come out in the white wash no doubt
And I would guess that without that lock-in period agreement then we are seeing plenty more sells from Horst. The previous statement in January that he had no intention of further sales was clearly not true.
9ne = one. a typo :)
To anyone who "does not get the biz"
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=smzQ4H0LvrU&t=6s
What's "9ne" ? thanks
As expected there has been more selling from Horst Siffrin to fund another investment. 1.2m shares sold since the last RNS.
I couldn't see a lock-in requirement after this round of selling, so either he is finished or he wasn't willing to agree to 9ne. We'll find out either way!
Genius fundJtc buy back half the shares they sold the week before!
Here's a recording from a recent AIM IHT webinar with the management: https://www.fmp-tv.co.uk/2023/05/18/centralnic-aim-iht/
Good to see Kestrel continuing to buy, alongside the daily buyback.
Kestrel now own 23.2%, or 66.3m shares, having bought another 86,000 shares. Hopefully they'll continue buying up to 29.99%!
Https://uk.advfn.com/stock-market/london/centralnic-CNIC/share-news/CentralNic-Group-PLC-Directors-Dealings/91099423
Berenberg have again reiterated their Buy and 250p valuation:
Https://www.sharecast.com/equity/Centralnic_Group/broker-views
New Edison note out this morning increases EPS forecasts slightly to 20.31c this year and 22.68c next year, i.e 16.25p EPS and 18.14p EPS:
Https://www.edisongroup.com/research/cash-allocated-to-deliver-on-objectives/32314/
"CentralNic’s Q123 results showed robust revenue and profit growth, as well as a further deleveraging of its balance sheet. Its product comparison business VGL’s entry into France provides a strong organic growth opportunity, with potential to expand into other regions. The group continues to showcase its commitment to shareholder returns with its latest share buyback programme."
"Valuation: Strategic priorities could close discount
CentralNic trades at an average 65% discount on EV/sales across FY23e and FY24e, falling to an average discount of 25% on an EV/EBITDA basis. Delivering on its latest strategic priorities could act as a catalyst to stock performance."
Does the company make their quarterly calls with analysts available to other shareholders somewhere?
Good for management to be striking their performance hurdles off the current depressed share price!
One way of the other - the next three to six months - should provide evidence if their strategy to expand adjacently organically is likely to be successful. The current share price is reflecting a massive amount of uncertainty over the sustainability of the company's current earnings, yet alone, pricing in any of the possible upside from these initiatives. It could be that this gets even cheaper if these growth options start contributing to the bottom line.
Good perspectives Monty9. Ice to read a good post. Monty888.
The factor that I think is holding back investors' enthusiasm is the amortisation costs that turn excellent EBITDA profits to pre-tax (and post-tax) losses. That is the effect of cash flow that has happened in prior years but capitalised rather than expensed. This is correct treatment but when as material as it is for CNIC I think they should emphasise the amortisation more in the senior management's commentary, so the market has some guidance on its relevance over the next few years. There is an intangible asset of USD 270 million against a market cap of GBP 327 million. I see that in addition to the normal amortisation, impairment of USD 5 million was incurred in the year. Clearly the intangibles and amortisation thereon are higly relevant to this business and I find their continual emphasis on EBITDA irritating - almost as if they don't think amortisation and impairment are real - or wish their investors to think so!
Having said all that I see note 14 states there is an average of 5 years of amortisation left in the 2022 balance sheet. Assuming their subsidiaries hold, or increase, their value over that period the earnings will jump in 5 years time and the market will see it coming well before that (intangibles would have reduced to a relatively trivial amount). I think the investment case demands we believe these intangible values will have a long term life - its not the Daily Mirror! In the meantime we hope to see increasing operational gearing and economies of scale (are they the same thing?)
The latest results may have suffered a slight Peleton effect as consumers can again make choices in a shop as well as on line now. In that scenario their sales performance has been exemplary.
Finally, the initiative to pay a dividend and start a second share buyback indicates strong confidence in the cash flow. These and the simultaneous reduction of net debt suggest the balance sheet will strengthen quickly if they simply rely on generic business growth, even while they return some cash to investors.
It is not a crystal clear situation but for me the risk/reward ration is compelling - I remain a holder.
Very much like the free cash flow.
And surely a p/e of 8 cannot continue given the growth of the company.
I quite expect a serious price increase by end 2023.
Seems like quite a good update but until we get the authorized accounts showing a an after tax profit instead of losses like the past (never made a net profit to date, not cash generative) there won’t be much SP uplift. I ever hopeful on the back of the improved EBITDA that exceptional and debt servicing leave a net profit this time.
Results are in line with the trading update - all segments are performing well - cash increased to 103m !! - adtech partnerships are also growing well - remain well on track to be at least in line with consensus and still expect to be profitable on a reported basis for the full year - at 7x its a strong buy
Looks encouraging to me given trading for the year is now expected to be "at least" in line with expectations.
There's healthy FCF pre-M&A of $13m (after interest costs).
Zeus Capital have today increased their forecasts for revenues whilst "conservatively" leaving their EBITDA forecasts unchanged.
They've raised their EPS forecasts slightly to 20.8c EPS this year. That's a P/E of just 6.8.
Good to see another £4m of buybacks being confirmed. Also encouraging to see the VGL operation having now commenced in France, "the second largest European market for Amazon, its key partner".
Maybe you should start to calculate free cash flow to equity which starts with reported net income (ie. A net loss). Once you have it, calculate it for the next 5yr and discount them with wacc. This will give you an intrinsic value. Such approach will show you how undervalued CNIC is.
Jtl have been selling. Maybe out all together but in this market when you get that kind of action it does tend to distort the price somewhat. Anyway its pretty hard to get a decent buy in this morning, which would suggest sellers may have dried up for now. Gl for monday folks
Interim results due 15th May, let’s see if we actually generate any cash / retained profit / profit after tax / net profit… whichever terms one prefers.