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all fine by me mogie, i'm v happy to read thoughts and comments from others re stuff like naked trader methods, zulu, etc. some of which i follow up, some i don't, kinda depending on how much time i've got, but i like to learn about others' methods and ideas, no problem at all with that. sorry if i suggested otherwise when posting late and probably a bit tired. the blinkx board wears me out a bit during the day at moment given all the deramping nonsense there.
Apologies to the board for being off topic lately. It was not my intention that matters should have developed as they did. On reflection it would have been better to have kept some comments off board and between individual posters. I will endeavour to keep to more CLL related issues in future. CLL is a good company and hopefully will remain off most radars. Kind regards and good luck CM
Good morning E. My post was addressed to Mogie who I have known on the boards for some considerable time and have always found most helpful. I don't like to see such folk castigated. My remarks were general as to how such folk tend to be treated by others of different views and don't want to listen. I have experienced the same on other boards and gave up posting. The remarks were not directed at anyone, singular or plural on the COMS board, but I ran the risk at being misinterpreted. People will read into posts what they want. I bear no one on that board nor any other anything but good luck, despite any differences. Outclassed and embarrassed, no. I stand by my remarks and I stand by those who have been of help to me in the past and no doubt the future. As Spikeyj says, these boards are not about one upmanship but for sharing thoughts and should be without fear of being hounded. Should any COMS investors be reading then I do truly wish you good luck. I am invested there and look forward to the share price rising and making us all prosperous. Regards CM
Hi Spikeyj, Yes I agree, but when I read the warm welcome CHEQUEMATE received last night on the Coms bb, and then I saw what he wrote tonight "I am not intending to post on the COMS board regularly; I am not going to put myself in a position where I need to justify my views to those who aren't interested and believe they know better. "Why cast your pearls before swine?" comes to mind, waste of time." It didn't sit very comfortably with me, that's all.
You most certainty can post where you like, my post was to CM and not to you.
ernie, not sure these bulletin boards are meant to be about competition and one upmanship are they? better a focus on sharing of thoughts, views and info as food for thought about shares. if people hold different opinions, fair enough, each bears their own risk and makes their own choices.
You have nothing to be sorry about Mogie. I have experienced the same vile towards me on boards in the past, QPP, FRR to name but 2. I am not intending to post on the COMS board regularly; I am not going to put myself in a position where I need to justify my views to those who aren't interested and believe they know better. "Why cast your pearls before swine?" comes to mind, waste of time. Not sure how my portfolio stands for this year. Not up to your 30% for sure, but overall up from when I invested in the individual shares. Difficult and nervous times. We've been there before though haven't we with the Greek crisis, the Euro zone crisis, the fiscal cliff, etc. So far we have come out of them ok, a little bloodied but not defeated. CLL - when I invested in GBG after a brief rise in the share price the price fell back to what I paid. Frustrating. The same has happened to a lesser extent here. Since then the GBG share price has more than doubled, with TRCS it has more than trebled - why not here with CLL (given time)?. No doubt it won't be a smooth ride but prospects are better here than with many. Keep smiling and don't let the b*****s get you down!. Regards CM
valuation v. worth A number of years ago I took a pocket watch left to me by my father to be valued at "Flog It". It dated from the 19th century, was working and in great condition. Surely it would be worth at least £100, maybe far more. Full of expectation and in cheerful mood I presented the watch to the expert. He told me all about the watch, who made it, where it was made, when it was made etc, etc. "Yes, yes...but what is it WORTH?"............"£50!"............"excuse me?"............."£50!". "You're having a laugh!. Why, it is over 100 years old, it's a fine example...........",........."£50!". "But I could buy a cheap Mickey Mouse watch for that!"......"£50!". The point I am making if it is not obvious is the "worth" we put on anything, including the share we own can be FAR different from the "value" the market puts on it. The wait for the 2 to co-incide may be lengthy. Right now we need to look for value with shares more than what we think a share is worth. "Worth" can bring about emotion which is never good when investing. "Value" is what the market believes the share is worth, and can be prefixed with the word "good" or "poor". "Worth" is what we, the investor believes the share should be valued at. Unlike shares, the watch will probably not drop in value. Like shares I have a choice what to do with the watch. Regards and good luck all. CM ps I didn't sell the watch!.
Hello Cyborg, and welcome to the board. I will echo all that Mogie has to say. For the last 2 years I have been basing my investments (well, most of the time) on the Zulu Principle along with more recently some of the principles/criteria set by the Naked Trader. Zulu shares are indeed becoming harder to find; it is an indication as to where we are in a bull run. The shares are out there, but as Mogie rightly says, if we use all the criteria set in the ZP right now it is near impossible to find anything to invest in, so we need to loosen our criteria a little. Since using the Zulu Principle my investments have been transformed from hit and miss, throwing darts in the dark hoping to hit the bullseye to more than average success. Right now though even the best of shares are being hit; the market taking no prisoners and ignoring strong fundamentals. If we are not invested in a share right now then there is a case to say wait, hold back, now is not the time to "hope for the best". That strategy is a sure fire way to losses. If you have a chance, get yourself a copy of Robbie Burns "The Naked Trader, How anyone can make money trading shares". It is an easy read and a breath of fresh air. It is written in easy language and gets to the point. It is the only investment book I have read easily, no high brow, no degree in financial jargon, no wool being pulled over our eyes. If only those on the boards such as COMS and in fairness to COMS, many other boards could be bothered to read it and be prepared to learn and not believe we know it all when often it is more from getting lucky. Too many forget high reward goes with high risk and by that very fact most high risk will NOT end in high reward or even reward of any kind. Too many look at the reward and forget about the risk. Peanuts from investing using the ZP etc.?, no way. Here are just some of my investments made using the ZP, GBG at 58p, TRCS at 87p, ECK at prices from 14p, NET at 34p, PEN at 42p. Take a look at their price now, regardless of this weeks battering. Not boasting Cyborg, just lying it on the line. Mogie is an invaluable contributor to this board and others. Being in a minority of what can seem like 1 does not mean Mogie is wrong, very often the minority are correct. The fact that Mogie made the effort and paid the expense to go to a Naked Trader seminar proves the point that he?/she? is concerned enough to WANT to get things right, to make wise decisions, to improve their success, to go against the heart when necessary and go with the head. What is more Mogie is prepared to share their insight. Wish there were more Mogies around. Here to help you and others if and when I can. Just need to ask. Regards and good luck CM
Hi mogie, Many thanks for taking the time to answer, much appreciated and what the boards should be about. Yes it was the first book, abit out of date but usefull all the same, I'll put my new found to work over the weekend when I have abit more time Thanks again
Welcome to the board folks. Good to see you here. Better prospects here than in many other shares. Mogie - thanks for your comments on the COMS board, appreciated. I was in 2 minds whether to post there or not. Most of the time posts get lost in all the chatter. Took the chance thinking "blow it!". I agree with your postings on there, but in truth I wonder why you bother most of the time. I have a great deal of respect for you and your views; I know where you are coming from. You put a lot of time and effort into your research and you can be trusted, with no hidden motives or agendas and you are prepared to share your findings. Thanks. Regards. CM
Me in as well. Should be interesting
Broker NPlus1Brewin has re-iterated its' target price for CLL of 123p. Doesn't necessarily mean a lot, but better than downgrading it to 23p. Certainly don't base an investment decision upon it alone. Mogie - thanks for your post; much appreciated. Glad to see you made a good call over housebuilders. Better than my call over GBO and COMS to date. I don't know about lol, but I think you are right about "nothing negative", even if it is not merited. I really need to re-assess my investment strategy and look at each stock individually and seperately. I think "well, the fact that the gain in stock x has balanced out the loss in stock y" is not a very professional way of looking at things, even if the fundamentals for stock y is good. It hasn't worked for GBO and makes me question if there is not something more seriously wrong beneath the waterline which investors are not aware of. Of course that counts for all stock. To be successful at investing we need to cast adrift shares which are not performing, invest with our heads and not our hearts. Re. COMS, it needs to come up with more contract wins to reverse the trend. I have a relatively small investment there. No good posting there, waste of time. You know a great deal more than a majority on that bb. A mixed day for me today; 4 shares up, 4 shares down There are bound to be some down days for CLL but I remain fairly relaxed about my investment. If I see any news about CLL I will keep the board informed. Good luck all and regards CM
yeah, i dabbled briefly in GBO but got stopped out quite rapidly. not back in, as i don't think i understand what's going on there, so until i get some clue taking no position in it.
Good evening SJ and thanks for your informative posts, much appreciated. I think you have made a wise decision re. Fairpoint. I decided to buy more CLL yesterday, doubling my holding and averaging up. In order to do so I had to jiggle some funds around. I sold out of GBO which has become a car crash and sold out of KMK first thing after they announced a surprise profit warning. My hope is that CLL will rise faster than what GBO will do. I should have sold out of GBO some time ago but my reckoning was that with other shares compensating for the fall in GBO then I could live with the fall awaiting for a reversal, rather than treat each and every share on their own merits. I am still learning!. It will be interesting to see what effect the new tax year will have on investments in smaller companies when folk can invest more into their ISAs. Good luck all and regards CM
a straw in the political wind for cos like fairpoint ... http://www.standard.co.uk/panewsfeeds/concern-over-debt-management-plans-9209645.html
aargh, typo, mean i hold ASW, the advanced computer group, *not* ACS
fairpoint used to be one of top ten holdings for giles hargreave in his malborough microcap fund, but it no longer figures. i'm not sure if he has sold out altogether or reduced the holding, i suspect the former. giles still has cello as a holding in that top ten. (he also has ACS, another share i hold in fair size myself and feel positive on for 2014, tho' i don't get round to posting much on that board either, happy just to hold it and let it run). [apols to any cello monomaniacs for disturbing the restful peace of this lovely bulletin board with mention of other shares]
hi cm and mogie. just on fairpoint --- i have done quite well in there, but have sold out all my holding in fairpoint today and reinvested elsewhere ( - topping up my sula ahead of gold assays hopefully due next week). partly i was happy enough to bank decent profit, and wanted funds for sula, but also i have become concerned about possible political issues in the year running up to election. there have been a few noises recently coming from government circles that come autumn they will be looking into the kinds of fees, charges and arrangements operated by firms who deal with debt management etc. i think this introduces a significant risk not just to sentiment in this area, but also potentially to the margins that fairpoint can extract. may be entirely wrong of course, dyor and & that. but it tipped the balance for me to sell out of fairpoint. i remain in cello, very happy here. am considering moving some more funds in during april, the outlook is good.
Back to 52 week high. Wish I had bought more at 85 the other day. Low on funds to invest further having bought more in ECK today. Believe in averaging up so may need to consider selling elsewhere. Longer term buying more at 92 rather than at 85 should make not too much difference. At least has made up for losses in GBO today. Mogie - hope the price doesn't go too high for you before 7 April. Regrds CM
Good morning all. Those 85.0 trades are buys. I know, cos one of them is mine!. I'm onboard. Good luck all and regards CM
Price to free cash flow ratio of approx. 10. So undervalued according to price to free cash flow.
Good evening Mogie, good to hear from you. Yes, I remember you going to the NT seminar. Interesting. I had wondered how much you would have learnt which hadn't been covered by his book; but I seem to remember reading that he recommends reading his book first, so I guess from that that it isn't just a verbal repeat. Lot of money to pay out had it been!. I think we can tie ourselves down to or into too strict a set of rules if we are not careful. Now, I don't think having a set of rules is a bad thing, that makes us think more carefully about what we are investing in and helps us to be more careful and diligent. The worst thing we can do is just like the sound of something and investing on not much more than a whim or a tip/suggestion from others without doing the necessary research. A 5 year positive earnings growth can be hard to find and will rule out young progressive companies who may just have had one bad year. That in itself may have nothing or little to do with themselves since it may have had more to do with the macro economic climate generally, ie recession etc. Cash flow is important as you say. Personally, I haven't really thought about measurements against the sectors was that covered by NT?. What I do like to read in the RNS, the trading updates is nothing negative from the Chairman; if so then I will steer clear. The fact that the dividend has been increased each of the last 8 years speaks volumes as to the confidence the company has going forward. One of the reasons why I have missed CLL from my research criteria previously is because I was relying heavily upon the PEG factor and it hadn't been indicated on the digitallook.com site which I use as first port of call. So, companies can get missed. You win some, you lose some. Thanks for your list of companies given below to take a closer look at. I didn't realise Stockopedia did a Zulu Screener. I've taken a brief look. I notice GBO is on the list. Hmm. Fundamentals are excellent but you will no doubt know what is going on there with their share price and sentiment. Seeing as this is the CLL board, I won't go into that, this isn't the place. Having said that........COMS.........., I don't tend to post on there; it will just get lost in all the posts from the posters who seem to have nothing more to do all day. Thanks for the download again Mogie. I have taken another look at it. It is a good piece of work and valuable reading. I'm not sure it would be appreciated on some other boards but that is their problem. If we can help each other then I am all for it; can't do with personal battles and point scoring. Need to be aware of possible clouds on the horizon. Oh, and I promise I'll keep quiet about this one. I haven't come on here to take over and start shouting, lol, not my way. Good luck all and regrds CM
Thanks for the welcome Mogie; you're too kind; not sure it is all warranted, but, hey, I'll take it thank you. Interesting to read you use the Zulu Principle/Naked Trader type mix. I have been using ZP for the last few years with, on the whole, very good results. Find some of the reading a bit above me but I have a reasonable grip on the basics. I have fairly recently come across the NT principles and bought myself a copy of his book, which I have found an easy read and written more for us private investors by someone who knows how we think. Too many other books I felt I needed a degree in high brow investing, written by those who had forgotten that to ski you first have to learn how to put your skis on before hurtling down the black icy slopes. Very discouraging. A bit like trying to understand what Prof. Stephen Hawkins in on about when all you want to know is "what is that star over there" without having to understand about black holes and string theory.. I hold SH in very high regard incidentally, in case anyone thought otherwise. Regarding PEG, I agree too much emphasis can be put on it; which is why I have missed CLL previously. And it isn't the only share in that respect. However, it has worked pretty well overall and I/we are bound to miss some gems. Personally I would be a little cautious of using a PEG as high as 1.6, but, that is only my opinion, and if you are happy with using different parameters then that is fine, no worries. Sometimes we can look at a share and at the graph and feel we have missed the boat. Then we will jump into something far more racey and high risk and pay the consequences. I'd rather invest in something more boring and see a steady rise over time, enabling me to sleep better. Interesting to see Spikeyj mentions Fairpoint; that is another share which keeps coming up when I do my trawl for possible investment, again meeting a fair no. of my strict investment criteria. Can't invest everywhere though......thankfully. Incidentally; I notice your posts on COMS come in for some criticism, unfair imo. It is right that more than one opinion is given and that some one sounds the trumpet. However, it is my experience that anyone who posts anything which may be taken as deramping will be given a lot of stick (QPP for me!). Too many only want to be happy clappy, lets sing and dance and pat each other on the backs; only for there to be a gnashing of teeth when things don't work out as wanted or expected (if only temporarily). Keep airing your thoughts Mogie, makes us think more broadly and is valued. Good luck and thanks again. Regards CM
Hmm. Interesting!. In the process of doing some in depth research for possible opportunities to invest. This one has passed me by in previous research. Shame. Pretty much meets most of my investment criteria. Despite the general market nervousness at present re. slow down in China and tension between Russia and Ukraine the share price is holding up nicely. The prelim results look very good along with the comments and outlook within. Revenue up, gross profit up, operating profit up, EPS up, net debt down, dividend increased by 12.5% and the 8th. successive year of divi growth!. Phew!. Looking for a PEG ratio, best I seem to be able to find is around 0.7; anything around 0.75 or even a little higher is great. Not many shares in issue, directors and institutions have holdings. Only thing I don't like about the institutional investors is Ennismore are mentioned (not a favourite of mine because they hold a short position on GBO), but since they have a holding in CLL then perhaps they will think twice of shorting!. Additionally, a very nice quiet board with no silly rampers and posters who I recognise from other boards. Mogie - thanks for your research; very good and much appreciated. Shan - see you are here too; can't seem to get away from you!. As stated elsewhere (TRCS) we seem to have a similar investment strategy and look for the same characteristics within companies. Good to see you here. MissGolightly - PLEASE, do NOT tell George from COMS about this baby. Not sure it is exciting enough for him mind you. Whatever he has to drink; then order me a double!. I need to do some more research first, but I could be pushing the buy button on Monday morning. Good luck all and regards CM