Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
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" Looking ahead I think the cinema landscape had changed - alot of independant cinemas who cant access money like a corporation can will cease to exit, and rivals with less profitable estates than CINE will also have to trim their loss making sites leaving the most profitable cinema well positioned. to me this points to an unusually good ahead sales year for CINE.
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100% agree with you! CINE being the second largest cinema in the world, will benefit from the box office revenue when smaller cinema chains fold.
Some commentary on progress in box office so far and thoughts for months ahead.
https://www.boxofficepro.com/long-range-box-office-forecast-what-to-expect-from-the-suicide-squad-and-summers-remaining-slate/
FI - that is exactly the point I was hoping to make, so glad it came across....I tend to waffle.
The averages being the same is good, but it's what is under the bonnet that matters when comparing the number of releases.
So running at 67% of big movies vs 32% of smaller movies (by measure of what is above and below the average line) in July YoY. And why I doubt it would remain the same if we had the same number of releases.
But yes, things are going the right way - hopefully it will keep improving at the same rate we have seen over the last few months.
MoneyP1t I think your analysis here gives some context of where we are.
Improving - Yes
Where we want to be/need to get to - No
Your point on the corresponding numbers of films in 2019 and 2021 above average is a key point.
That is where we should realise that: the bigger movies are largely speaking being released to cinema more so than the smaller ones.
Therefore even using the average as you have in this case it still heavily skews where we are on our progress.
Let's be realistic and we are not going to double the number of high earning releases anytime soon.
However we would hope to double the number of those smaller releases and therefore average box office will come down showing a clearer picture of how far we are progressing.
It will however more importantly raise the overall box office take and that's what business requires.
Total box office is showing decent month on month recovery (April - May - June - July).
Let's see where July ends (maybe at c. 45% of 2019 comparitive), definitely improving.
We just do not know if as quickly as business had forecast or requires.
August 12 forward statement will be interesting and hopefully include some second half early period indicative figures.
We know first half is poor.
Now I'm not foolish enough to claim we are back at 2019 levels, or to claim all is back to normal, that would just be daft - because clearly we're not, we still have some way to go on that front.
But that said, 2019 is the year we should be making comparisons to, and the US BO is our best marker against that. And after reading SmallTraders claim around BO figures being back to almost 2019 levels and just not having the same quantity, well I didn't really agree with the maths of doubling a figure or halfing a figure...so I went looking at the average BO figures per movie per month (which I think is the right way to view it).
Jan - $5,048,756 (2019) vs $1,184,329 (2021)
Feb - $4,248,042 vs $946,670
Mar - $5,014,143 vs $1,774,611
Apr - $4,704,469 vs $2,403,014
May - $4,789,631 vs $2,520,521
Jun - $5,953,985 vs $4,869,434
Jul - $6,779,979 vs $6,518,723
Aug - $3,969,812 vs ??
Sep - $3,366,638 vs ??
Oct - $3,602,049 vs ??
Nov - $5,075,206 vs ??
Dec - $6,875,212 vs ??
So as you can see, the average BO figures against the number of movies released, for the last couple of months, is looking back in the same 2019 range, so ST was correct in his claim.
This is just one measure, but to be fair it is one that looks promising. It doesn't mean our revenue is back to 2019 levels, or the BO overall is back to what it was (we can all see that)....just that on average, over the last 2 months, the BO is pulling in a similar amount per movie released as it was in 2019.
2019 had a range of $3,366,638 to $6,875,212, with the lower months being Aug-Oct, so it will be interesting to see how we get on over these months.
At the end of the day though, an average is just an average - it's that total figure we want to see moving up.
To be clear, it also doesn't mean that movies are making as much as they should be - it's your big movies that pull the average up, but on the flip side of that - your smaller movies drag it down. More movies clearly mean more revenue (which is good), but would the average remain the same if we had the same number of releases as 2019, who knows, I guess it would depend on what is being released - but in my opinion - not likely, not yet.
As long as movies earned more than the current average, then we do know the average would go up, but the reverse is also true.
So far this month, 10 out of the 66 releases have been above the average, the other 56 pulled the average down, that is against 15 out of 190 for July 2019, so a better %age in 2021 above that line, but in reality all that means is that those 15 movies in 2019 had to earn way more than we are currently are to pull that average back up, and having that additional 5 (50%) big movies a month is important too.
So it's promising, but it's not the full story. I prefer the measure of average BO figures per day (over a month) vs 2019 average per day, and the monthly BO figures vs 2019 monthly average - which are both looking promising, some way to go but ar