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Increase in cash and cash equivalents 7 (91) (70) (35)
(Increase) / decrease in borrowings 0 0 0 (70)
Repayment of finance leases 0 0 0 0
Exchange / other 0 0 0 0
(Increase) / decrease in net debt 0 0 0 0
Net cash / (debt) (start) 0 0 0 0
Net cash / (debt) (end) 291 201 132 27
Leases 0 0 0 0
Net cash / (debt) (end) including leases 291 201 132 27Centamin
19 October 2021
5
Figure 4: Balance sheet ($m)
December year-end 2020A 2021E 2022E 2023E
Goodwill 0 0 0 0
Other intangible assets 64 46 56 66
PPE 830 904 946 1,039
Trade and other LT receivables 0 0 0 0
Deferred tax asset 0 0 0 0
Investments in JVs / Associates 0 0 0 0
Retirement benefit asset 0 0 0 0
Other non-current assets 65 91 94 116
Fixed assets 959 1,041 1,096 1,221
Inventories 119 116 124 131
Trade and other receivables 18 26 27 29
Cash & cash equivalents 291 201 132 97
Financial assets 0 0 0 0
Other current assets 9 9 9 9
Current assets 437 352 292 265
Total Assets 1,396 1,393 1,388 1,486
Trade payables 64 65 65 67
Borrowings 0 0 0 70
Tax liabilities 0 0 0 0
Provisions 7 7 7 7
Other current liabilities 0 0 0 0
Current liabilities 72 72 72 144
Total assets less current liabilities 1,324 1,321 1,316 1,343
Net current assets 365 280 220 122
Long-term borrowings and finance leases 0 0 0 0
Retirement benefit obligations 0 0 0 0
Provisions 0 0 0 0
Other payables 0 0 0 0
Other non-current liabilities 33 30 30 30
Non-current liabilities 34 30 30 30
Net Assets 1,289 1,290 1,285 1,312
Total equity 1,289 1,329 1,324 1,350
Minority interests 17 8 8 8
Shareholders’ equity 1,307 1,336 1,331 1,358
Number of shares at period end (basic) (m) 1,153 1,156 1,156 1,156
Reported EPS (basic) ($) 0 0 0 0
Reported EPS (diluted) ($) 0 0 0 0
Underlying EPS (basic) ($) 0 0 0 0
Underlying EPS (basic) growth (%) 79 (30) (36) (4)
Underlying EPS (diluted) ($) 0 0 0 0
Underlying EPS (diluted) growth (%) 79 (30) (36) (4)
Pro-forma EPS (diluted) ($) 0 0 0 0
DPS (Ordinary) ($) 0 0 0 0
DPS (Total) ($) 0 0 0 0
Dividend growth (%) 20 (24) (64) 13
Dividend cover (x) 1 1 2 2
Source: Liberum
Figure 3: Cash flow statement ($m)
December year-end 2020A 2021E 2022E 2023E
Reported EBIT 307 209 153 149
Profit in associates 0 0 0 0
Depreciation (124) (141) (162) (183)
Amortisation 0 0 0 0
Loss / (profit) on sale of PPE 0 0 0 0
Share based payments 0 0 0 0
Increase/(Decrease) in provisions 0 0 0 0
Loss / (Gain) on business disposal 0 0 0 0
Other 0 0 0 0
Operating cash flows before movements in working capital 451 346 315 332
(Increase) / decrease in inventories (21) (23) (12) (28)
(Increase) / decrease in receivables 16 (7) (2) (1)
(Decrease) / increase in payables 7 0 0 2
(Increase) / decrease in working capital 2 (30) (13) (27)
Cash generated by operations 371 322 302 304
Tax paid (0) 0 0 0
Net cash flow from operating activities 453 315 302 304
Purchase of PPE (127) (157) (111) (196)
Purchase of other intangibles (12) (17) (10) (10)
Disposals 0 0 0 0
Net capex (139) (174) (121) (206)
Dividends from associates 0 0 0 0
Movement in short term investments 0 0 0 0
Acquisitions 7 0 0 0
(Investments) / disposals of associates 0 0 0 0
Other cash flow from investing 0 0 0 0
Net cash flow from investing activities (130) (232) (212) (286)
Net interest received / (paid) 8 3 2 1
Equity dividends paid (139) (81) (76) (41)
Share issues / (repurchases) 0 0 0 0
Lease payments 0 0 0 0
Increase / (decrease) in borrowings 0 0 0 70
Other cash flow from financing (174) (93) (84) (82)
Net cash flow from financing activities (316) (174) (160) (53)
Cont-
Calendar year
EV (CY) 20A 21E 22E 23E
Market Cap 1,591 1,591 1,591 1,591
Net Debt/(Cash) (291.3) (201.5) (131.6) (27.3)
Pension & other adj. (159.0) (102.9) (84.3) (81.9)
EV 1,140 1,286 1,375 1,481
Valuation (CY) 20A 21E 22E 23E
P/E (x) 10.1 14.5 22.5 23.4
Div Yield (%) 8.7 6.6 2.4 2.7
EV/Sales (x) 1.4 1.8 1.9 1.9
EV/EBITDA (x) 2.6 3.6 4.4 4.5
EV/EBIT (x) 3.7 6.1 9.0 10.0
FCFe Yield (%) 20.5 10.0 12.0 6.8
Price / book (x) 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2
Financial year (December year end)
Financials (FY) 20A 21E 22E 23E
Sales 829 732 736 764
EBITDA 439 353 315 332
EBIT 307 209 153 149
EBIT Margin (%) 37.1 28.6 20.8 19.4
Net Interest 8.5 3.3 1.7 1.3
PBT 316 213 155 150
FD EPS ($) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
- vs consensus (%) 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0
DPS ($) 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
Leverage (FY) 20A 21E 22E 23E
Net Debt/(Cash) (291.3) (201.5) (131.6) (27.3)
Net Debt/EBITDA (x) (0.7) (0.6) (0.4) (0.1)
Net Debt/Mkt Cap (x) (0.2) (0.1) (0.1) (0.0)
Source: Liberum, Bloomberg
All numbers are on a post-IFRS 16 b
Financial model
Figure 2: Income statement ($m)
December year-end 2020A 2021E 2022E 2023E
Total sales 829 732 736 764
Sales growth (%) 27 (12) 0 4
Gross margin (%) 46 35 28 27
Cost of sales (449) (477) (528) (561)
Gross profit 379 255 207 204
Operating expenses (55) (38) (36) (36)
Administrative expenses 0 0 0 0
Share based payments 0 0 0 0
Underlying EBITDA 439 353 315 332
Depreciation (124) (141) (162) (183)
Amortisation (not acquired) 0 0 0 0
Underlying EBIT (pre JVs) 307 209 153 149
EBIT (pre JVs) margin (%) 37 29 21 19
Revenue 0 0 0 0
PBT 0 0 0 0
Tax 0 0 0 0
JV post tax profit 0 0 0 0
JV contribution 0 0 0 0
Profit on disposal 0 0 0 0
Underlying EBIT 307 209 153 149
EBIT Margin (%) 37 29 21 19
Amortisation of acquired intangibles 0 0 0 0
Exceptional / extraordinary costs (1) 0 0 0
Reported EBIT 307 209 153 149
Non-operating exceptional costs 0 0 0 0
Interest income 2 1 2 1
Interest costs 7 2 0 0
Pension credit / (cost) 0 0 0 0
Net Interest 8 3 2 1
Underlying PBT 316 213 155 150
Reported PBT 316 213 155 150
Underlying tax rate (%) 0 (0) 0 0
Exceptional tax rate (%) 0 0 0 0
Reported tax rate (%) 0 (0) 0 0
Underlying tax (0) 0 0 0
Exceptional tax 0 0 0 0
Reported tax (0) 0 0 0
Underlying PAT 315 213 155 150
Discontinued operations (net) 0 0 0 0
Profit on disposal 0 0 0 0
Reported PAT 315 213 155 150
Share of profit attributable to minorities (159) (103) (84) (82)
Preference dividends 0 0 0 0
Minorities (159) (103) (84) (82)
Underlying net income 157 110 71 68
Reported net income 156 110 71 68
Weighted average number of shares (basic) (m) 1,153 1,156 1,156 1,156
Weighted average number of shares (diluted) (m) 1,153 1,156 1,156 1,156
cont-
Liberium
This document is a marketing communication and has been prepared and distributed by Liberum Capital Limited. It is not independent research prepared in accordance
with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to a prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of
investment research. For Reg-AC certification, see the end of the text. Liberum does and seeks to do business with companies covered in this communication. As a
result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a
single factor in making their investment decision. 9m’21 production was 307.8koz at cash costs of
US$820/oz and All-In Sustaining Costs (AISC) of
US$1,197/oz. Centamin is therefore now aiming to achieve
the mid-point of its full-year 2021 target of 400-430koz, and
the lower half of the cash cost and AISC ranges of US$800-
900/oz and US$1,150-1,250/oz, respectively. We see this
as an important ‘result’ in that Centamin has been investing
heavily for operational reliability in order to restore market
confidence in the company’s ability to meet guidance.
FY21: production likely in-line, costs better than we hoped
Our existing forecast for FY21 production is 413koz, at cash cost of
US$833/oz and AISC of US$1,212/oz. Centamin’s achieving the mid-point of
its production guidance range would therefore put it in-line with our
production number. It is looking likely to us, however, that Centamin will
better our costs expectations.
Balance sheet remains strong
As at 30 September 2021, Centamin had US$256m of cash and liquid assets
(June 2021: US$312m), after the interim dividend of US$46.1m, with no debt
and no hedging.
Phase 2 of Sukari Life of Asset (LOA) review on 1st Dec
The long- and eagerly-awaited Phase 2 of the Sukari LOA review is to be
unveiled on Wednesday 1 December 2021. Updated reserve and resource
statements for Sukari will also be published at the time.
Cont-