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And, by the way, I'm still happy with my target of £8.40 by rhe end of the year.
Catching up on the earlier discussion about mcap and sp expectations.
The current debt of $35b plays an important/major part in the situation.
I'm not sure what the debt was 3 years ago, but with present debt at around 3x mcap, the mcap cannot recover to previous levels until much of the debt is paid off, and dividends won't be paid whilst high levels of debt are being dealt with.
Suppose (very theoretically) that new shares were issued to pay off all $35b. Mcap would increase by 300%, and dividends could be paid as early as next year. But the number of shares in issue would also increase by the same amount, so the new dividend would only be a small fraction of the previous one (1/8th???)
This gives a minimum SP of about £50/8 = £6.25. Not a realistic prospect, but it does illustrate why the current sp is as low as it is.
Lovelace1958.
"800p this week".
==================
Well, looking at the chart CCL was 641p on 1st August and is now 741p on 9th August.
So about 100p increase in 8 days, about 12p per day.
Looking good. Down 1.6% at the moment but after 6 days of gains one expects a slight pull back as some take profits. I expect it to resume the upward course tomorrow, or even this afternoon. What a share to have!
All IMHO.
800p this week
Good post Hexam and yes my bad explanation about market cap not increasing after placing, all things being equal including sentiment. It all highlights my belief the current market cap is not in line with the likely profit generation and dividend likely over the next years with history as good understanding of what is likely. I see value here up to £15 per share providing oil falls or doesn’t go up lots and that company continues to show great passenger numbers and increases to on board spend. Time will tell as always…
@SavvyInvestor - It is tricky comparing historic values because of dilutions but one thing to bear in mind is that, as you say, an equity raise adds cash to the balance sheet but this should means mcap should actually go up in theory (by the amount of the cash raised) rather, than as you suggest, stay the same. This sounds odd but consider an extreme example. If a company with an mcap of £1m raises £10m of cash via an equity raise its mcap clearly wouldn't stay at £1m.
Similarly if the raise is at the prevailing share price then the sp should not change as the number of shares increases in line with the mcap. The reason the share price generally falls in this situation is that the new shares are usually sold at a discount and sometimes quite a heavy discount.
Of course sentiment also plays it part and the increase in mcap in line with the amount of the cash raised implicitly assumes that the earning per share will remain unchanged i.e. the earnings go up in line with the additional mcap because of the use made of the additional money (so the £1m company I used as an example would be expected to increase earnings by 11 times by making as good use of the additional £10m than of the original £1m).
However, for companies seen as bailing themselves out sentiment often drags the sp down further than any discount implies but for growth companies (like in my example) it can actually go up by more. Each situation is different though and the opposite can happen in each case.
There are other complications e.g. share buybacks like CCL have been doing work the other way. In addition the CCL position is complicated further by the separate listings in the US and UK which don't always move in the same way.
Sorry for the lengthy and rather dull post but thought it might help if you are trying to look at historic values but also with the dual-listing and buybacks it is also far more difficult to do with CCL.
One other point is that some charts that are published do actually adjust historic sp for dilutions (i.e. adjusting for the impact of discounts) - e.g. google charts I believe, but I'm not sure it works for CCL so well because of its added complications?
Ok I answered my own market cap question. I was tired of looking at share price which has dilution and other factors and wanted to compare todays CCL price with historical to understand how the value of the company compares to 2 and 5 years ago.
Then market cap on USD was about $30b 2 years ago and $50b 5 years ago. So clearly at $10b the company is not valued at the same level. Dilution lowers the value per share but usually adds cash to the balance sheet like recent share placement so neutral for market cap if seen as positive or needed. Hence my view is the company is in a great position to regain much of this market share as passenger numbers and spend rapidly increase and oil price falls. The fly in the ointment of Labour cost and recruitment I am hopeful to clear in 12 months but has some risk. Overall I don’t see this company worth only a third of what it was 2 years ago, they will bring back at some point the dividend and I believe my money is in a very good place and will add in the next days and weeks.
Good luck all.
About $35 or £29.
Live price available on google but thanks for trying to help.
Something I would like help with is aboit the share price market cap and dilution. If you look at the share price at £50 a few years back you can’t compare to the £8 now. What I would like to know is what the highest market cap carnival has had and when that was as I can compare revenue profit and market cap and debt levels and make a view on the bargain that exists today based on historical market cap PE, dividend and growth levels but historical stuff only shows share price rather than market cap, so what web site shows historical market cap for shares???
Thriftygirl.
No live price here (15 mins delayed) , I have live price from another site.
Some may want the live price?
@emeraldcarrots, I know the continued rise is exciting for you...but we can see the percentage rise in the price. Let's keep the posts for discussion :-)
Now 2.2%
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