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"My main concern going into next week, is pondering if Drahi truly has now ceased buying, whether that means the SP can continue at the exact same rate of growth without his buying power"
I recently pasted a section of the FCA handbook into one of my posts, detailing some of the rules around building holdings directly, or indirectly. If Drahi had been driving the growth in the share price since since the 120's, where Vodafone is still languishing, where were the notifications?
I actually believe Vodafone's share price is currently being manipulated down, to control the price while Vodafone is in the midst of their Mandatory Convertible Bond & Share buyback program. I'm not suggesting Vodafone are responsible, I believe it's vested interest market participants gaming the stock, of course this is just my own personal opinion.
With trillions in spare cash, just floating in the ether, I believe that any stock can be manipulated either way, so I just pick stocks that I think are safe no matter which way they head. I don't believe that large holdings of cash are the place to be, as the printing machines are running at full tilt so I like to pitch my tent in assets I trust, BT being one of them.
In the US it's a stock market bubble, the UK is arguably in the middle of a property bubble, there's the Crypto bubble, and it's all a symptom of the cash floating around the system. What the market fears most is Fiscal Tightening, due to an increase in inflation, and it isn't hard to see why.
Quite so NewK.
I firmly expect the current predominant bull trend to reassert its authority in due course, as it's still in force.
But first, have to see if the stain of Freaky Friday is a one-day wonder in BT's case, and rectfied on Monday pronto, or whether it will take more of the week to shake off.
I'm going for the bulk of the week to shake the effects off, but that's just an opinion only.
Drahi is NOT a passive investor as such others will be buying in on assumption of future Drahi actions .... whatever they maybe !
" You will probably disagree with me, but..."
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Nothing contentious there to disagree with, except where you say narrative I'd say market sentinent.
My main concern going into next week, is pondering if Drahi truly has now ceased buying, whether that means the SP can continue at the exact same rate of growth without his buying power - or whether additional buyers will make up the shortfall in his now absent buying pressurre.
“Two of my neighbours have recently invested in Bitcoin; They may make money, but the most likely scenario is that they wont.”
Agree Fleccy, history is littered with Bitcoin-esque money making ventures. I’m sure Samuel Pepys had a few neighbours that thought the market for Tulips were bullet proof.
This is not normal time to play the overbought card. There will be entity's following the example of draghi, I doubt they be sitting on their arses waiting for the "quiet summer" to end.
"So next week I plump for a continuation in the pullback. Maximum downside? Mid 180's - then back to business."
That's a brave call Velo. In all honesty I haven't got a clue what will happen with BT's share price next week, but BT was caught up in a Macro move on Friday, and has a slightly higher Beta than many other similarly affected stocks. My personal view, in the absence of anything directly associated, is that BT will go with the flow of the market. If the FTSE goes up, then I suspect BT will outperform, but it's not so clear cut in the downward direction. As I said previously, the narrative has changed, and since analysts/market participants are herd animals, BT could have a lot more fuel in the tank. Much will depend on what the big players want, and how much of BT they've hovered up, and where they see the potential to push the price upward imo. As other's have mentioned, the Royal Mail has massively outperformed since Apr 2020, and is a good example of Narrative reversal in the current investment landscape. You will probably disagree with me, but I think the game is heavily rigged, with regulation skewed in favour of the big players who control the shadow/Dark alternative market world.
It doesn't bother me that Drahi can stealthily pick up 12% of BT without anyone knowing, but it would have bothered me had I bought into the negative narrative and sold my BT stock at the lows, instead of topping up as I did. Two of my neighbours have recently invested in Bitcoin; They may make money, but the most likely scenario is that they wont. I find it strange that intelligent individuals would invest in something I perceive has having no intrinsic value, especially when they could have invested in BT at £1, but they are reading the book and immersed themselves in the narrative. I've mention narrative quite a few times in this post, because I believe the current investing universe is more about fiction than fact.
(Concludes) > > >
. . . Quadruple witching is similar to the triple witching dates, when three out of the four markets expire at the same time, or double witching, when two markets out of the four markets expire at the same time."
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Or my explanation - when markets go into (legal) crazy reversals: That's all you really need to know - Freaky Friday reversals.
So, when a company's stock makes a big run in either direction and is heavily traded on the options exchange, there's a point in which In-the-money "Call" premiums completely offset In-the-money "Put" premiums.
So, when a stock makes a big advance, there will be thousands (quite possibly hundreds of thousands) of In-the-money calls, while there'll be relatively few in-the-money puts.
If the Call premium side is weighed down to the greater, then the Put premium side would be way up in the air. That provides market makers an incentive to see that stock falls into options expiration day, minimizing the net payout of all those In-the-money calls and balancing the seesaw.
AND that's why it's called Quadruple/triple Witching hour Friday. It's in the MM's interests to minimise payouts by panicking holders. And that's what happened in all the markets, here and abroad, on Friday: see my copy-paste post of the major markets pullbacks on Friday.
In the process, what was trending up gets knocked down on the day and what was trending south gets a lift up on the day - in general, mostly.
When all monies are settled, slowly things revert to their former path. It's a known event and legal. It's all based on human sentiment reacting to type - to sell in panic when you feel the price is dropping/and buy vice versa on rises for FOMO.
So, as the SP was due to come out of overbought it got a helping hand on Friday before it was fully mature. It's so close to overbought (still premature) I'm tempted to think it's not over, pulling back to complete it's natural trajectory which this year has been the mid point of relative strength which is now lying in the mid 180's.
So, Fleccy, my initial reply to your post is the SP could continue pulling back next week, and not cease until it's natural level, after which it's back to game on.
Or . . . then there's the FOMO Drahi admirers who want a piece of the action, so it might stop the pullback dead, which would be a pity because the SP is extremely close to overbought and needs to 'breathe' - not be forced back early into a too acute uptrend - and thus back up into overbought condition.
Proper answer in the circumstances is: I don't really know, but will choose the double whammy of overbought with freaky Friday allowing the SP to complete it's mission.
So next week I plump for a continuation in the pullback.
Maximum downside? Mid 180's - then back to business.
.
" Velo, the way BT's been climbing the most likely scenario will be similar to mid May "
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Indeed Fleccy, but possibly a small delay beforehand, . . . or maybe not?
Why? Two things.
1)
First up is the overbought condition that the SP has now (barely) descended out of, but remains in high bullish relative strength close too it.
Without the Quadruple/triple Witching hour Friday (more on that) I would have expected the SP to head for the average relative strength midway point as it did the last time in early May, where it peaked at circa low 170's whilst overbought, it matured and the SP then descended out from overbought but dropped no further than the midway relative strength border 50/50 and pulled back to the low 160's.
That's been the great thing about BT's new found strength - it hasn't dropped further than the midway point in relative strength terms on every occasion the SP has been overbought since last November. And there have been multiple cases as is the increased frequency of such events in all 'winning' bullish up trending stocks.
Conversely oversold a frequent occurrence in down trending bearish stocks, just haven't been present at all and now has set a new long-term record as the longest period in BT since 2016 to run without a single oversold occasion in over a year since March 2020! There was always an oversold on the horizon up till the March 2020 crash.
(An oversold if one ever occurs in BT will be a great buying opportunity like no other since November of last year!)
So this overbought condition, had it not been for Witching hour Friday, I would have expected to behave like the others and pulled back no further than the other conditions to mid way point which currently is residing in the mid 180's.
Also a buying opportunity in a bullish stock (but a short signal in a bearish stock).
Now because of freaky Friday I don't know what to expect next week.
I saw stocks on Friday that were in an uptrend turn bearish on Friday and a recently bearish stock of mine reverse and put on a 4% gain on Friday!
Now either it's all over with Friday or it lasts into next week. Don't know to be honest. Here's why -
2)
Quadruple Witching hour Friday (3rd Friday of the last month in every quarter):
A quote because I barely understand the options market myself - so go Google if needed:
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"Quadruple witching refers to a date on which stock index futures,
stock index options,
stock options,
and single stock futures expire simultaneously.
While stock options contracts and index options expire on the third Friday of every month, all four asset classes expire simultaneously on the third Friday of March, June, September, and December.
Quadruple witching is similar to the triple witching dates, when
(Continues) > > >
fleecy foot lose
perfect drip feed em under valued shares for long term gain bella
"Not so confident about the 'resuming next week' line, as observing these for some years and as often as not, it can take a full week to work through on those stocks affected - seemingly out of the blue.
But due to BT's strength, I'm easily persuaded and prepared to give ground on that one :)"
Velo, the way BT's been climbing the most likely scenario will be similar to mid May.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vS4gJMsDAQq9sJ_zHqi_JnoVTryAdb4X64c7Clw12E2sGT3N6dTJfB60O8bc5Ns4burXvSSCVFrLvWC/pubchart?oid=1937898192&format=interactive
Correct NEWKOTB, as it's another calendar quarter this month end, but I like triple as it has more of a ring to it.
Not so confident about the 'resuming next week' line, as observing these for some years and as often as not, it can take a full week to work through on those stocks affected - seemingly out of the blue.
But due to BT's strength, I'm easily persuaded and prepared to give ground on that one :)
Velo,
Little behind the times .... try Quadruple Witching ....
Normal service to resume next week imo.
atb & good w/e all.
" Investing.com – The FTSE 100 finished the week with its worst day since 11th May as equity markets around the world came under selling pressure. There was widespread selling across the sectors.."
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See? - Triple Witching hour Friday!
Mess wid the missus horoscopes at your own risk.
"just gave back what we have gained yesterday ,"
Not just BT suffering today, look at Lloyds and Vod. FTSE currently down 1.76% too. It's just one of those days, i'm afraid.
just gave back what we have gained yesterday ,
As suspected it's out now dated 18th June. Haven't the time now to dig in and compare to previous data on my spreadsheets as not on my desktop but posting from a tablet but here's the link anyway -
https://www.bt.com/bt-plc/assets/documents/investors/financial-reporting-and-news/latest-consensus/btgroup-consensus-18-jun-2021.pdf
Speedy glance shows a dismal Q1 Net profit which appears unusually bearish to me; they've continued the downbeat Q4 theme of last year into this year's Q1.
Big mistake because -
Well that's never worked out well for them in the past. Q1 always kicks the analysts consensus ass! :)
Year 1 forecast update for Revenue is on the floor as expected as this year is destined to be the absolute floor for Revenue with the lowest showing ever, but thereafter years 2 and 3 continue the y-o-y growth away from this year's expected floor.
Net profit for years 1, 2, and 3 continues the y-o-y theme of growth from the off. Although they have been picking negatively a little. But will dig deeper later on this evening.
My main reason for looking at this latest update was to see if the "vampire" effect had impacted the analysts thinking. Not one iota from this first glance. Maybe by the next update as I expect this update was 75% complete by the time Altice made its presence felt on BT's board.