Firering Strategic Minerals: From explorer to producer. Watch the video here.
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If you want to practice your investment skills/-analysis, this share and now is the time. The current position doesn’t rely on finding minerals or getting a mega elusive contract- the game has been set and the poker game has begun.
First. If your worried about the 2x 1 m trades, just look at the steep vertical intraday graph pre and post times of the trades. At worst they are transfers, most likely buys and at best sells that illustrate the free float is running on fumes. Yep, sounds wierd, but with recent TRa and 8.3s point to around 3m available.
Of course , you will see bid trades but some will be fake/ neutral but made to influence trading. Which makes me come to the crux- the real value of BRY as a company and the resulting likely offer in the light of value to a buyer and market phycology.
I have crunched the numbers and come with a fair value, neither excessive or low at 72p, hence fair. But therein lies the dilemma- gold, houses, oil are ubiquitous and value can be easily determined. Companies are bespoke with limited buyers so there’s no market as such. So you have to get into the head of buyers and ask how much is it worth to them ( then apply a discount if there are no other interested parties).
Best lesson in my life was a negotiation tactic course .
It involved us play acting - two peeps given a card with their position with regard to an old car that was for sale.
The buyer was told he’d been looking for this opp for ages as there were few around and so getting spare parts for his working car was virtually impossible so he was prepared to pay £3000.
The other was told he had to get rid of it at any cost as the rented garage it was in was costing him £300 a year and was a waste.
The poor second person made the first opening offer, when asked how much he said £200 thinking that’s good and the first man said yes !!
Now , opening offers for a bespoke asset mean little esp when the offeree admits they can go higher. I’ve gone on record that 50% of fair value will be achieved especially with the post offer stake building but you have to decide and assess the quality of earnings ( recurring - there’s the clue) and GP( another) and the benefit to an acquisitor’s existing operations.
Good luck all; time to see if your business acumen rather than luck can make you some dosh .
As a LTH I reeled with shock when I saw the RNS released at 2.40pm on 26th Sept
£1.5m needed by End Nov + £15m for future development. SP at time 17p mcap circa £15m
What happened? Dec 31st 2018 £4.5m cash. Add £1.5m = negative cashflow Jan to Nov £6m!
No new contracts in 2019 why? Was updating existing software a waste of money?
Was new CEO so ineffective? Did FD take his eye off the ball?
Company now needs new management. Announcement with RNS on afternoon of 26th Sept
stating need for £1.5m short term loan, quite naive. Market obviously assumed a problem.
Hardly surprising shares went into freefall in following days. Exacerbated by reduction in mcap
some trustees were forced to sell in order to abide by their trust deed.
Is this a management with shareholder interests in mind?
As regards fair value the company has for many years been active in a niche market and presently
have many clients who would be ideal customers for upgraded systems -- which is what the £15m
additional funds would be for. There should be a high intellectual property value attributed to
the workforce imv and together with large percentage of income on regular recurring basis the
present offer of 10p is way below I would expect a major software company to be willing to pay
for a stake in this growing market.
With Kestrel and Coltrane now holding over 45% of share capital I would expect an auction to
be ongoing and a final bid over present sp.
In view of my comments above I would also not expect Directors [who are not shareholders]
to keep their contracts.
Looks like the fun is over here for now, guess the offer is around 17p.
MP
Maybe only just started - you may be right as we stand today but then you have to ask, will Hanover come back?
What we do know with the big iis increasing way over 10p - that figure is dead.
This is one share where its best just to do nothing for a month
Think we can safely assume most trades are Cenkos buying and selling as per their daily RNS disclosures- gathering a few as they go - not many though.
Looking at Friday vol - strip out the 2 one million trades that catapulted the sp, the remaining volume matches what Cenkos have disclosed this morning.!
So all the vol is purely positional trading - which they have to do as there are so few shares available.
Added another 20k sb at 15.52
14.5p to sell 250k
NT for 2k.
Thanks cenkos - took another 35 at 15.023.
The 2m purchases on Friday gave it all away.