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Findme, I don’t disagree with any of your theory, it’s possible. But all signs and past performance points more towards a Sea Lion and not a Liza outcome I feel.
I just ticked you up Jim when I meant to hit the reply button but your reply does have its merits.
Its all a matter of the size of the intended operation while BPC are calling the shots, II have said previously that BPC could be a candidate for a takeover if the well proves to be a super hit.
Companies like you mentioned would carry on drilling through say a twelve well template until the production platform or FPSO was in position weather BPC on our own could go that way I do not know. I am just thinking of a one well production facility while other wells are being drilled and this could be done by connecting individual tankers up to a floating pipeline buoy. All guess work until P1 is drilled.
Jim
Agree that on proving up a substantial find, the majority will probably be sold for a major to develop.
Perhaps this was the plan all along, but then they could never self fund a drill before now
Following sale of majority Bahamas - Trinidad, Uruguay and Suriname are then developed in interim period until first Bahamas revenue, 5 years is ok in that context as by then BPC is already made - high quality oil is found in LC Saffron already and just needs investment form which al else can grow.
Findme, I understand what you’re saying but what I would say is just look no further than Liza development in Guyana by Exxon, Hess & CNOOC. They are credited with delivering the fastest discovery to production time in the industry, thus being 5 years.
That is one of the worlds biggest companies with deep pockets and no need arrange financing and all the tunes that often need to be considered and played for that. Exxon and partners just pushed the button and went for it, do you honestly think BPC have that about them? Be honest with yourself.
If they do decide to essentially go it alone with the FPSO route, how long before that returns good dividends to shareholders after costs?
Leo Koots in his CERP peddling stated any find is likely to be that big it will be developed by ‘big oil’ and I’ve got no reason to doubt that. BPC going it alone with an FPSO is a possibility, but more likely a pipe dream in my mind. BPC’s goal is still to get a big name on the ticket and drive a deal so they keep c. 40% with minimal financial obligations.
South Korea churn out FPSO size vessels at an astonishing rate when needed. The design and equipment needed won’t be too onerous compared with other FPSO’s that have been built. More like 2-3 years from order to on station if every effort was made.
Sorry, but what on earth does 'there is bound to be some fomo look at tesla' even mean!?
#facepalmemoji
Sorry Jim but you are wrong with your time line. If P1 is a success and the hole is drilled directionally into the reservoir then the production string will be perforated for hundreds of yards to realise max. production. Installing a fpso will certainly not take a decade. I worked on the Liverpool bay project and installing the main and satellite platforms was relatively quick and that was a much more complex project than this of ours with many wells drilled.
As for the share price, well who knows.
I'd be ecstatic with 15p, i'll be doing naked cartwheels.
The sad and perverse thing about the COPL comparison is they now have a chance of beating BPC to drilling a well - COPL were out on their feet 6 months ago and as good as gone. Even if they don't beat BPC, COPL's drill is all fully paid for so no more dilution likely and given their tiny market cap, much bigger potential upside from where they are. If COPL receive the expected PSC extension in next 6 weeks they could re-rate to between 2p & 3p.
BPC need to hang their head in shame.
Keep taking the medication.
im happy with 15p, anything ore than that is big bonus, there is bound to be some fomo look at tesla , COPL looks like a good bet for upside from here too
P1, SWP, Saffron2, Goudron, Trinity. This will easily get to 15p.
Unfortunately there's not a chance in hell this is getting to 20p in my lifetime now. A £700m - £800m company with production rates in the 10's of barrels that no one has managed to scale-up in decades - no chance i'd say. Even a good strike of oil at P#1 will take the best part of a decade to realise with huge costs. This share ain't going much further than 15p for as long as i'll be breathing I suspect.
What?
20p is the new 87p. What a sad story!