Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
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I didn’t think that we would see this back down here, particularly after TGA’s results. About another month until results.
Market Cap = 6 months profit.
Todays trading statement from Thungela reiterates their guidance with eps figures that appear broadly in line with broker forecasts.
Better than I thought then. Also depends how much they are mining and how much costs have risen of course.
Profit £3m in 2019 with a $71 average.
Loss of £5m in 2020 at sub $50.
Average price in 2021 was under $100 and they were substantially profitable - about £6m ebitda?
What is their Coal break even price! I have a figure of approx $110/T in my head. Does anyone of you guys have a figure?
But what if the coal price falls back to the $50-$100 range?
Market Cap is now only equal to H1 2022 profit.
I've never seen that for a company before?
Most miners are on a P/E of between 1 and 4.
But 0.5?! Amazing.
Unfortunately we have a long 2 month wait before we find out. These guys are not known for endless PR so I don’t expect that we’ll hear anything until results. I seem to recall that the board have options that can be exercised if the share price is above £3.52…
So here we are - finally, a company with a P/E of 0.5.
Has that happened before?
The oil price is up. Will Putin weaponise oil this year like he did gas over the last 18 months. Some people are speculating that he will. If he does this, the coal price will only be heading one way.
As per my post below, the thing that gets forgotten is that the share price never remotely reflected the upwards movement in the first place (hence the current absurdity of market cap being only 50% of profit).
Also, today (10th February), RB coal (LVG23) is 18.07% higher than it was on 10th February 2022. If it were not for the 2022 summer spike, the current price would be considered very strong.
Sooner or later (hopefully later, for those of us who are regular buyers), reality will overwhelm misplaced sentiment.
The results are going to be interesting here. Mr Heller senior is no longer with us (potential for some change) and what should have been an excellent 12 months figures will hopefully be announced to the market along with yet another special divi to underpin the share price.
The coal price has come right off though, which will explain the recent price weakness. Interesting to hear that the record low water / river levels across much of Europe is causing some countries to talk of a reduction in power generation from Nuclear and Hydro for the summer. nuclear stations may only discharge cooling water back to rivers below a certain temperature set by regulation and if it’s hot and the river level is low these stations have to reduce load to come in below the limit.
Market Cap £27m.
2022 profit c. £50m.
P/E of 0.5.
I'm wondering if there is a precedent for that with another company, either now, or in the past? Any suggestions?
They did RNS it here and LAS. Sad news.
Definitely the right Andrew Heller? If so, sad - and RIP.
Michael Heller has died according to sharecast. I assume that they’ll be an RNS tomorrow morning.
I've seen them get it wrong both ways, but you do need to know to just ignore all that 'data'. It's total junk! Keeping my fingers crossed for a little rise after divs are paid and any reinvestment takes place. Bit concerned over AGM votes which were not supportive of the board and hope the big reported profit last time was not a total aberration.
I agree that it is odd that very obvious 'buys' are shown as 'sells'. The reverse does not happen.
Anyway, the longer the Market Cap remains at just 50% of full year profit, the longer the insane buying opportunity continues. I wish I could invest more each month.
Just bought in a bit. LSE showing most of my Buys as Sells (this scam should be stopped - probably not LSE's fault) but selling price has dropped a bit. Anyway, hoping price of coal goes back up!
I think that is a much too euro-centric explaination of what is happening, Beza.
China alone consumes 15 times more coal annually than the whole of Europe.
India consumes 3 times more than Europe.
If there is any one thing that is knocking the price of coal at the moment, it is that the Chinese economy is very very much weaker than the ludicrous official CCP figures suggest.
News that Europes gas storage is up to 75% capacity, a drop in the gas price, forecast milder weather across Europe this coming week and the possibility of increased LPG from the USA to Europe has knocked the coal price to below $160 (Richards Bay).
The share price should be higher than it was 12 months ago - the company has made, and almost entirely retained, the best part of £50m since last January.
As I recall, in 2021, they made £5.8m, and the average price achieved was $92.