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But, even in the conservative scenario, we are talking about production over 10 years, so, for myself, I consider an average natural gas price calculated over the last 10 years to be appropriate.
No, I'm suggesting that it was uncommercial at 58.29 otherwise they would have continued producing.
I'm guaranteeing its uncommercial at the rates from the presentation date in June 27.96 to that of the last reported figures 24.87..........even with the talented highly skilled management at Anguish......LOL
Ja51,
Are you suggesting that the most recent day-ahead price available should be assumed to remain unchanged over the coming 10 years?
Don't the graphs demonstrate the volatility of the price?
At the time the presentation was published Gas prices: Day-ahead contracts – monthly average was 27.96.
Angus have made their calculations @ 50.5
The last price supplied on the chart they have based the calculations on is 24.87
When Saltfleetby last produced in December 2017 the price was 58.29............more than twice that of today and they obviously weren't making a PROFIT AT THAT LEVEL!!!
All the figures are here.
https://www.ofgem.gov.uk/data-portal/all-charts/policy-area/gas-wholesale-markets
£1 for a reason
"how would you suggest establishing an average natural gas price for the coming 10 years?"
Well... if Labour get elected in the next couple of days... I won't really matter now will it, Ocelot. And maybe that was ONE of many reasons why the previous owner was keen to get rid of The pound Land Gas Field!
Ja51,
If you look at the graph in the presentation on page 7, you can see the price was about 35-40p at the time.
If you have doubts about the average price they have retained, how would you suggest establishing an average natural gas price for the coming 10 years?
And only Anguish could go to shareholders with this" transformational deal" when the price is the lowest in those 10 years.
IT COST £1 FOR A REASON!!!
ANGUS's forecasts are based on an average natural gas price over the last 10 years.
The conservative scenario assumes production over 10 years, the optimistic scenario, over 12 years.
O and the http://www.angusenergy.co.uk/investors/share-structure-significant-shareholders/ page is blank so expect incoming news.
So I had another look at the natural gas price again. however this time i looked at the Ofgem figures that Anguish have presented in the presentation and it turns out I was actually correct Gas is Trading at Half what they have done the sums on.......So forget whatever GL has told you its completely out of date. (see below same graph as presentation slide)
https://www.ofgem.gov.uk/data-portal/all-charts/policy-area/gas-wholesale-markets
http://www.angusenergy.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2019/06/Saltfleetby-Gas-Field-rev14.pdf
Angus should have a minus NPV figure based on cash in-flow versus cash outflow?
Our Bod know how to spend... they just can't seem to generate any income with it!
wealdpwr,
But you're the one who has spoken of an NPV of 0! (see your post of 14:47).
Postalot,
Thanks for the cut and paste. You continuously prove you do not understand how to value a share price and the appropriate utilization of NPV. Carry on.
Investopedia's defintion:
What is Net Present Value (NPV)?
Net present value (NPV) is the difference between the present value of cash inflows and the present value of cash outflows over a period of time. NPV is used in capital budgeting and investment planning to analyze the profitability of a projected investment or project...
Nothing to add to that gem...
Ocelot...
Anguish Energy have historically been "excellent" at generating expectation for an inflated share price... they tried it with Lidsey... FAILURE.... Brockham.... FAILURE... Balcombe.... DELAY (and likely FAILURE)... Saltfleetby (better known as Pound land Gas Field) Really?
Their only "NEAR" success was Horse Hill... Just about says it all doesn't it: The one discovery that could have earned them real income, that they had to give away because they were operationally incompetent and therefore incapable of extracting oil from it themselves!)
...after so many failed promises, are we HONESTLY still expected to believe that this one isn't just another Frog - but a prince in disguise!?!?!
Dear Oh Dear! Well... I guess we are in pantomime season!!!!!
I've already presented you with Wikipedia's definition of NPV, but you objected to it, BECAUSE it had been copied and pasted.
I've already presented you with Wikipedia's definition of NPV, but you objected to it, but it had been copied and pasted.
YL
I would add:
Up to 20% of the outstanding principal may be converted into shares in Angus Energy before 31 December 2019. - RNS October 2019
10% down, 10 more to go....
I think you should look up the definitions of 'now 'and 'present' and 'NPV'.
wealdpwr,
The whole point of discounting forecast cash flows is to arrive at a value NOW (a Net Present Value) for cash flows forecast over coming years.
Your NPV of 0 means, therefore, that you are forecasting zero cash flows in the future.
Personally, I suspect GL is better informed on this one than yourself, (but, of course, you are welcome to your own opinion).
"GL has calculated a Net Present Value "right now" for Saltfleetby of 4p per Angus share."
You might as well say: GL has calculated that unicorns are real and living in the woodland behind Balcombe - because both statements are so far removed from reality as to be laughable!
If still in doubt... just check out the share graph this year since Lucan took over at the helm (under Toxic Tidswell's instructions)... and the current SP of course.
Oh dear... I'm guessing Mr Market doesn't believe any of Lucan's promises either!
However NPV is not how you value a share price. And given there are no cash flows for at least a year and the asset price is one quid, I'm calculating the NPV to be 0.
I won't attack you but suggest DYOR if you are very smart.. For example, you would perhaps understand basic facts such as it is the same team. Secondly, three members of the BOD left including two independent members who are both considered oil experts. Thirdly, you can't even describe what exactly was the problem other than the know facts of JTP's double dealing and board room shenanigans.
This is line tells me all I need to know, ' if you’re not invested I suggest you grow up and post somewhere else instead of attacking forum members.' apparently you think BBs are only for ramping...
4) GL has calculated a Net Present Value "right now" for Saltfleetby of 4p per Angus share.