Chris Heminway, Exec-Chair at Time To ACT, explains why now is the right time for the Group to IPO. Watch the video here.
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Comiserations from the CERP board you are not the only ones to have to put up with the Dross he is a permanent fixture over there also.
Willec, IMO its all going on behind the scenes at the moment with one offer received so far, and correctly dismissed. All other interested parties will be assessing what price to come in at, as their starting point, which will have to be well above the 17p previous. There is no bidding war until offers received, which will come and its that which will drive the SP onwards and up-up-upwards. Maybe some upside now as PIs will know there is slack between current SP and whatever the next bid will be, but main hike will come as above. Just IMO?
Surpurising sp not at least 20p considering all the RNS yesterday and today from MANY interested parties. If one or two bids then yes a lowish price, but with this many and a bidding war has not begun? Interesting.
Thanks Wolster, Much appreciated.
I think I understand it now basically the II's try to keep the price from being rampe up so that they can get as many shares as possible and then when the share price goes up they make more money (in a nutshell and non-technical terminology.)
DMC13, I missed Friday opportunity as was travelling. Had to buy (more, have a holding already) Monday at 17.5p. I will make money, you will make more :)
de-ramper / paid troll ? as I understand it they try to supress bring down SP's for, well whatever their or their paymasters agenda is. Best to ignore or judge their comments against the majority posted.
Hope this helps.
Littlepost
Same person, I suspect.
Here you go, this is what a deramp does - he trys to make you sell your shares at 25p, but below is what you maybe playing for. (It may not reach these levels but who knows - certainly not Rossanan)
As per ColonelDrake:-
Rough Calcs
1. CPO-5 to ONGC for premption rights so goes for industry base of $10pb to $12pb per barrel and $1 or $2pb for p50 resources or portion of 2P. Estimated value circa $250m (conservative)
2. Plat based on 4000bopd and 15mmboe $175m
3. OBA - Strategic worth $75m to $100m
4. PUT blocks 50% - $100m to $150m now OXY involved.(replace with $217m per my post below)
5. Cash in bank of $60m approx (based on reduced capex for 2019)
Total $650m to $750m (i get $800m)
Equates to £520m to £600m(therefore £640m)
Based on roughly 1.3bln shares in issue (assumes all management options exercised)
Value 40p to 46p (im at 49p & comes with the bonus of telling my boss to go feck himself)
I also posted :-
Dont forget 30% CPO-5 is held in a separate subsidiary company & is therefore already packaged nicely to be sold separate from the remaining Amerisur assets.
Regarding the Oxy valuation.
The 50% we currently retain has control rights (so should be worth more than the bit we sold+we didnt take the highest bidder back then (now we would)) therefore :-
Our 50% should read $93m + $19m = $112m+(5%Control est) + (5%highest bid est) = $124m
+The Credit for the bit we sold $93m + $19m = $112m less cash recieved $19m = $93m Oxy Credit.
Therefore the total is more likely $124m + $93m = $217m (less any 50% of any OXY spends incurred (no idea if they done much yet)).
That total includes nothing but the OXY involved land.
Fred and Rossannan in cahoots perhaps :):):)
DMC13
Someone who LuckCounts disagrees with.
Hi Luck,
Sorry if this has been answered before, but what is a de-ramper / paid troll ?
I'm relatively new to this and this is the 1st company that I have jumped in on that I don't know anything about, my other 3 investments are 2 Construction based companies and TCG.
I Got in on Friday Afternoon at 16p, only got 3000 shares but will hopefully make some money on my investment.
Any help /advice really appreciated
ColonelDrake
When did the management use the word “derisory”?
Agree Fred, I also find it strange that the premium is so low.
If you believe that M&P will make a more serious bid, or other parties will make competitive bids (as I do) then there is an opportunity to make some money. I'm heavily invested in this knowing the downside is limited imo.
Thanks again for the thoughts, I hope you're right. My opinion is coloured by AMER being a perennial under achiever when it comes to share price. Ophir? Yeah, I think the shareholders were robbed, but that's AIM for you. Cheers.
Fred
I would expect M&P to come back sooner rather than later with an all cash offer, maybe 20p. Then it really will be game on, assuming that no other proposal is tabled in the meantime. Have to say that while I am not really expecting more than 25p at the end of the day, I would be surprised and disappointed if this went for much less than that, even 20p.
Thanks for the thoughts all, 24p limit sell order set. Let's see what happens next.
@Fred_Bloggs With all due respect I believe your take on the current situation to be wrong at this time. The market is being naturally cautious until it has more information.
The very fact that M&P have had their initial low ball offer knocked back but are willing to take part in the competitive bid process, indicates strongly that an improved offer will come fro m them. The SP will then simply re-rate to that level.
In addition, the fact that a number of other interested parties are also willing to take part in the competitive process knowing that 17p isn't high enough, also points strongly towards an improved offer(s) coming from another party/parties. Again, the SP will rise to reflect this as and when that information is set free, which unfortunately will likely show itself in the SP before we mushroom like PIs are able to read about it.
17p is the base and that is all it is.
Fred
That is too pessimistic even for me. 25p feels like a reasonable and realistic target. No way would I sell up in the teens.
It's telling (to me anyway) that the market sees almost zero premium value above the low ball 17p offer price. I think nobody sees a queue of bidders forming here. I will place a cheeky 24p limit sell order here. But truth is, I'd be delighted to get out for anything north of 19p. It's a perennial disappointment this one.