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If Amer "sticks" or "twists" with the sale I'm sure this is the end of the sub 20p share price. The potential in AMER is HUGE. Was waiting for it to be major player in Columbia.
40p is still cheap for the rewards. This would be paid back over 3 years from 2020 production.
No one should take 12p as the basis for multiple of the value.
As per the broker valuation pre 19 July 2019. The starting point is 37p as it stands now. However, the company does not need to raise capital and more importantly does not need to sell. It will be worth £1 per share in 2 years time at worst if we produce 20k BOPD at the end of 2020. So either we wait for another 2 years to get the £1 per share or we sell now for, say, 80p. That would be my minimum selling price for a take over bid now. I would still prefer to wait another 2 years to sell the company.
Well... it doesn't strike me as a bad thing if even our most ardent critic sees only 25p of value here?
And besides... we're already nearly 18p and will likely be much higher as the days go by... even before another bid emerges... I guess the lazy Market will simply chase this up on news... evidently can't be *rsed to work out true value for themselves... No surprise there then!
That Evening Standard piece also paints a very rosey picture of just how desirable AMER might be to other predators out there...
GL A :-)
rossannan
Never lets a post go unless it bangs the same drum.
Its almost Bot like.
Neway ill stop posting against the Bot it only gives it more credance, & last thing im here to do is garbage post all day about garbage posts from ross. doss. dross etc....
Just do your homework new folk & take this guy with a pinch of salt.
ColonelDrake
Stake building in Ithaca was not the same as Ithaca going into play. I am talking about actual offers, binding or not, disclosed or solicited in RNSs. Of course the likelihood of an offer for AMER has been increasing over recent months - the value case has been clear - but Friday’s starting point was unfortunately low for those hoping for much more than 25p. That’s how I see it anyway. If I’m wrong I’m quids in, so it’s all good.
rossannan
De-ramper scum, just surfaced from the pond last week, now he posts against every other poster who has been on these boards for years/months.
In case new people are interested.
is it not true to say that before Friday last we were being valued (by the market as a whole) on discounted future income basis (resource + production), now we are floating from bid to bid, guided by expectation and management comments?
York’s, my average is 12p having bought in 3 tranches from 15p down to 10p. I could walk away with a very healthy profit but as we are both agreed at this current price it is a giveaway. I do have my own option what I am prepared to sell at but that is going to be constantly reviewed as time passes. We have so much news due that may further underpin my target price.
From my experience, unless your very lucky or Walter Mitty; no one buys at the bottom and sells at the top.
Whatever investors opinions are, this is going to be a great investment for many.
ColonelDrake
You are missing the point, it is not about what multiple of their share price lows these companies went for, it’s about what multiple they went for of the share price they had when they went “in-play”. It is very rarely, if ever, more than 2x (but can often be as much as 2x).
rossannan
Belt up T***.
Alternative viewpoint:
It matters 0% what any individual PI thinks or wants. When the price is right, there will be an RNS.
The all-but-guarantee is that it will be higher than the current SP. Even the most negative people think it'll be higher!
It might not be a massive premium to todays SP...but there's a 99%+ chance that it will be higher.
This is probably the safest place on the stockmarket right now. What a place to be. (Pretty much) Guaranteed money from this level. EVERYONE should have at least a few % of their portfolio in here.
....IMO :)
It was 12p due to a couple of IIs selling down, partly cyclical bearish on oil sector, partly because BoD had failed to deliver drills over the last 3 years.
The starting price in any auction is irrelevant, the market is the market.
leas
Are figures like 25p just being plucked of thin air though? As we know, this went in-play at 12p. How many other oilers have gone for more more than twice the price they went in-play at? Why should AMER be different, barring substantial drilling success (or the oil price rallying significantly) in the interim? No reason for it to go for much less than 25p, but why should it go for much more?
Leas,
Sincerely, I respect your opinion.
But, it's all guesswork at the moment... and I am only stating facts when I say II's drifting away (various II's have been selling down of late and fewer to replace them UNTIL NOW. And although I know this has a lot to do with sentiment in this sector... Amer BOD have not done themselves any favours either!) and PI's getting bored (you only have to read the past few months comments on this BB!!!!)
By the way: I don't personally see it as "unfair" to new investors if people who are already invested (I've been here since late 2016... yawn yawn...) want to discuss the buy-out price and have an opinion on this. The more debate and contrast we hear from genuine holders... the better for new investors to judge for themselves IMHO.
Out of interest... what is your opinion on price?
‘Getting on with their lives’ ....
York’s, ‘getting in with their luves’ Are you talking about private investors or institutions? Where do I start. Everyone is talking about producing assets. What about acreage which we hold licences for. The sum of all parts is probably more valuable than we think. Production updates soon. This will take as king as it takes in a rising oil price environment with a weak pound.
I’m getting bored of ‘educated guesses’ leave it to those that have experience and understanding of the fundamentals and value that is fair.
When I see 20-30, 40 - 50 or lucky to make 20 being posted it is more of an indication of what that poster is happy to sell at.
I have my own opinion on price but I do think it is unfair for any new investor when figures are plucked out of thin air.
Over the years.... of the companies I have been invested in that have seen "successful" takeovers - the eventual price has always been a compromise of sorts and rarely a shocker - either way.
Would be great to see anything above 35p... but I realistically feel that (pending no imminent further RNS exploration successes) we are more likely to be taken out at / or close to 30p.
Whilst I think AMER would be worth a lot more (given time) I am also aware that the BOD have been "yawn" somewhat lackluster and lethargic ... Columbia exploration companies have historically moved at a snail's pace, many LTH II's & PI's are bored and want out to invest elsewhere - preferably in companies with a decent pulse.
So - given these facts, IMHO enough investors would vote for a 30p buy-out just to get on with the rest of their lives...
rhodi - I agree with all you say. no good options re Brexit, whichever side you are on it's a disaster, won't bore you with my views but as I say it has the potential to sweeten this deal and the BoD should play for time IMO, it's not peanuts.
Also the valuations appear to be getting more extravagant , what's wrong with £2/share or even £3, where does being silly start, if I make a case will everyone cheer me on now we're up to £1!
I've only stated what I would like, top side of 30p and what I believe may be acceptable to the majority 27.5p, I'm not even going to try to value the company, it's totally subjective at this stage, we may as well run a sweepstake.
if Corbyn gets in we will get an even better exchange rate imo. To those that are saying we will go for mid 20's or £1 I feel both are to pessimistic and optimistic and prefer to go with the likes of posters that can reason their prices. so I go closer to stifels price of 37p and for reasons stated if this goes to a bidding war which for all intense purposes it will then I see 40p- 50p but that has to be with a strong wind so to speak. I feel the board will say to a current partner meet figure X and you have it lock stock and barrel. Then someone will carve it up achieving best price. But good luck all. GLA but illustrated by the last 2 rns the fund managers know they will get a very good return from this price.