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Its like when Warren Buffit said do you want to be greedy when others are fearful or fearful when others are greedy, maby we are being give a great bounce back opertunity here? When will they renew the banking guarrentee due to expire at the year end? And they better not be dumb enough to change the date of the publication of the 15 Bn deflict on Nov 12, or the markets will completly hammer us again, so its goin to be painful up to Nov 12th
http://uk.reuters.com/article/idUKLDE6A405Z20101105?pageNumber=1
RPT-SCENARIOS-What's the likely endgame for Ireland? Tweet This Share on LinkedIn Share on Facebook Digg Related News Irish debt plans fail to reassure investors Nov 5, 2010 Ireland targets 6 billion euros debt cut in 2011 Nov 4, 2010 Ireland targets 6 bln euros debt cut in 2011 Nov 4, 2010 Key political risks to watch in Ireland Nov 1, 2010 Political ructions narrow Irish debt options Oct 15, 2010 Ireland sees savings "well above" 2011 target Oct 10, 2010 Quotes Allied Irish Banks PLC ALBK.I €0.27 -0.04-12.13% 16:30:03 BST Thu Nov 4, 2010 1:59pm GMT (Repeats with link, to wider addresses) By Carmel Crimmins Nov 4 (Reuters) - Ireland is entering an endgame in its bid to convince markets it does not need a Greek-style bailout. Finance Minister Brian Lenihan will unveil a four-year plan later this month detailing how 15 billion euros ($21.2 billion) in adjustments will get the worst budget deficit in Europe under control. The first, and worst, of the four austerity budgets needs to be passed in early December in the face of a dwindling government majority and record high borrowing costs. Bond market reaction to Lenihan's plans ultimately will decide whether Dublin needs to call in Brussels and the International Monetary Fund. In the face of sky-high yields, the government cancelled its remaining two bond auctions this year to allow time to come up with a credible fiscal plan that would reassure investors and shrink its borrowing costs. The government is fully funded until the middle of next year and does not have any major bond redemptions until next November but if yields have not come down by January, when it intends to go back to market, Dublin will face some tough choices. Here are some possible scenarios between now and year end: BUDGET PASSES/BOND YIELDS COME DOWN This is still the most likely scenario. While the government's majority is likely to be cut to two after a by-election for a vacant seat is held on November 25, most analysts expect it will be able to get the 2011 budget passed. Government MPs have nothing to gain from voting against the plan and triggering an early general election that could see them losing their seats. The governing coalition of Fianna Fail and the Greens is the most unpopular administration in Irish history and will face a stunning drubbing in the event of an early general election.
Do not worry. you will never see a 0 price, before that, It is the bankruptcy, and even in those last moments there are always people (with big Attorneys) willing to take the last shot negotiating something for the left overs. 7cents is the minimum stock price in a company, before goes in the venue of bankruptcy. After that the company moves to over the counter trades and at the end your receive a letter explaining your rights and the reasons why your stocks value is nothing. At least this has been my experience. No body like to have a government as partner, because obvious reasons, they are politicians unable to do a good job dealing between permanency in the government, and particular interests around a company. That is the major reason why is everybody walking out of this stock. More over if you see a desperately government trying to maintain stability and prosperity after uncontrolled expending, wrong policies and terrible deficit, you do not want a partner like that. The bank has a value but in this times nobody can see it, it is the name and the people behind this company the ones that will do the difference, of course if the government put in place the right rules and conditions to start the recovery process. The price is a consequence of demand and offer, and until somebody strong see a value to own the bank, no body will be able to stop the free fall, but every time the price goes down, more and more can be cautious observers ready to jump over the victim and reborn it with new perspectives.
falling albk is sheer panic albeit low volumes. Share going down without any news coming. it has fallen 11% today. what is it today that makes this share worth 11% less than it was yesterday. Another question, is there any share which has fallen to 0.00 and rebound? I see ALBK making history!
The only reason this share ever went up from its March 09 lows was due to uninformed speculators and retail gamblers. The reasons for its initial collapse are still the same and it was always going to be the case that when the true extent of losses became evident it would sink. I lost heavily on this and other Irish banks believing the truth was out there over the last 18 months only to see the wool being pulled over our eyes time and again. Fool me once shame on you fool me twice shame on me! Tough learning experience but have come to the conclusion that these big companies care more for lining their own executives and mates pockets and less for their ord shareholders who they are supposed to be answerable to
As a friend told me, you always complain how much you lost, but always come back with big bucks after some time. We all know this stock is a risky stock, and I love that ... of course do not blur your sight, when you have this stock representing fair percentage of your portfolio, you need to take your time reading and researching the company. Last report I read about this company was so negative that I would not criticize those who jump out of the ship, but stay near the boat, so you can jump back and recover what you lost. I timidly bought at 1.4 usd ADR, but I sold 80% of the stocks when was 1.20, finally I started to buy back at 1 usd and I will continue until this slow down, but Ohh yes this is capital at a huge risk, and long term (12 to 24 months). Potentially we can have huge, gains so I will be with this bank until recovery or total failure. By the way, it has been very educative to read about Ireland culture, economy, and government. You always gain something.
Anyone who has been dealing in shares for some period of time will have a share which continues to disappoint and this is one such share for me. I simply cannot afford to sell because I have lost so much money on it already. I somehow stupidly believed this stock couldn't continue getting lower but it has and so i may as well sit on in the belief that one day in the future it might come good. It's hard to believe this stock was worth more than 10 times what is today a year ago. Ah well put it down to experience.
In March 2009, Ford stocks went down to 1 US dollar, who will predict that the price today is 15 US dollars. They still have negative book value, but it is all about the promise to be strong. Book value is important, but more important is the cash flow that a company can generate in years to come. The rule is Stock price = 10 years projection profits per share. My opinion, the risk is bankruptcy, if not, then current stock holder will have a bright future. Of course today the things looks really bad, not different of what we saw in March 2009 in US. But there is a rule, if you believe that you are investor and you do not believe in progress and the ability of the humanity to overcome any challenge, then you are NOT, and if you are mathematician you know about cycles, and cycles always return. It is not a financial rule, it is natural rule applicable to everything in this world. Ireland people have demonstrated during centuries their ability to innovate and create future of nothing, and I am sure they will solve this problem successfully. I am still positive that the real price of this stock is 1 Euro per share. 2 years from now, we will see the things very different. This is not GM this is the Ford of US.
We are now sitting on the closing low of 05 march 2009, maby we will make history and test an all time new low? when and how will they stop the bleeding with this?
If there is still possibly 100 per cent profit to have out of these shares then why is no body getting in early before the rights? do you think they could change it from 0.5 per share to 0.3 per share yet? so far they seem to change things all the time, its hard to believe anything they tell us, we have been well shafted up to now. I believe if some super bank was going to jump in at the last minute and save us it would be very hard to hide something like that this close to the rights, its like bank-tech warned us along time ago this thing is toxic, maby 0.20 cents is what we will get yet? I hope im wrong, GL all
I think they are raising 10.4 bn of new capital, (incl. sale pof M&T, Poland, etc) of which 3 bn will be lost (together with all capital presently available) on the balance of NAMA transfers, leaving the bank substantially toxic-free, with available capital of 7.4 bn and perhaps c. 11.5 bn shares, although possibly less shares if they also bring in a strategic investor...not yet totally discounted, remember. Anyway, that seems to give a share price c. 0.65...However, earnings will be 0.10 per share, with future growth, so when things settle down, that could shove the share price up to 1.50. I would predict that that's the likely lower end of the possible price range over 2 years, assuming no further disasters. but I do not yet discount possibility of a new positive development. However, I'm a born optimist, so take your own advice
The RI will be launched during november and completed before 31st December, no exact date yet for it.
5.4bn to be raised from RI at 0.50 means 10.8bn shares have to be offered. Currently there are 1bn shares. So after RI there will be 11.8 bn shares with market capital of 5.4bn + current capital of 400m =5.8bn. therefore share price will be eur5.8bn divided by 11.8bn shares =0.49.
Thanks for the info, when is the date for the RI please? thank you
The RI is to be at 50 cents...That was fixed, in effect, when the government announced it would buy any extra shares at that price. Effectively that is now an upside cap, at least unless the RI terms are changed. Officially they have not been announced by the bank yet. (When that happens I suspect shareholders may be offered a discount on the 50 cents) AIB should be a takeover play. it will soon be ore debt-free (and toxic asset-free) than most comparable banks. At current price it could be bought for €320 million, or about a quarter of this years profits before write offs--i.e. core profits- or a quarter of its deferred tax assets--carried forward tax benefit/ savings on future taxes due to recent losses In 2 years time it should be worth somewhere north of 10 bn. Its €50 bn of quiality deposits will be attractive to many foreign banks. .I suspect that M&T or other bank already made approaches about buying it and the government stepped in to block it.. However, it could still be done and I feel that shareholders should not sell until it becomes really clear that the government will actually acquire the majority..That is, wait and see if some foreign bank launches a takeover attempt before the RI process is completed. IMO the upside potential is very good and downside medium term almost zero
My response would be: Book value, and Ireland strategic recovery. I started to buy 1.4 usd ADR (70 us cents per share (1 ADR equivalent to 2 shares)) Book value 2 Euros per share that will be diluted up to 1 Euro per share. Once the 5Billion shares goes to market at 0.5 euros per share. (Of course this has been managed so bad that the Ireland Government will own them, Ireland do not have a Warren Buffet to organize an Ireland Group to buy it, mmm that is bad), until the Ireland economy stabilize (Strong positive trading with Europe countries and huge community savings are helpful) The problem of this bank is related with the boom of the housing industry as everywhere, and of course better economy during 2001 to 2006 deeper the problem. I have seen how much value the houses have lost during last 3 years in Ireland (more than 55%), On my opinion this is going to be the worst moment. But I think the Ireland government wants as the US government to make money from the banks, buying the stocks at a very ridiculous prices, and selling a few months later for double or triple. They have their point, if this bank stocks are bought by other countries the out flow of cash later on will be terrible. They have to maintain the stocks in Ireland at least as many as possible, but that delicate balance to buy cheap stocks own NAMA assets and start the recovery is so complicated, more over in the political environment in where they are immerse. The government need to save this bank because is the only one that will be able to support at a later time the recovery of the country. Of course they are hurting the bank so bad with the NAMA program that the bank was enforce to sell beautiful assets overseas. Who owns the NAMA owns the real Country assets, but if you want to own the bank and the NAMA assets in a so small country and small government is crazy, and the opposition is taking their role to criticize so risky strategy. Having euros guarantee that the people savings will go no where, then the resources are there, they are exporting services and products in a very successful way, it is a matter of political agreements to come back, and that need to happen soon, as soon as the end of this year. At the end this is my personal opinion and as known every want has different aversion to risk, find yours and invest accordingly.
Could anyone please tell me the date of the RI? also I dont quite understand how anyone will buy the RI shares at 50 cents when they are available to buy today at 32? Please excuse my ignorance if I have missed something, but can anyone please help? thanks.
Why do you see current value in stocks. I bought in around 2 and have decided to sit it out as lost too much now to even attempt to sell. I cannot however see any rebound on these - not at the moment anyway!!
I hope government plays its real role and Management and Board of Directors focus on taking the best decisions under the current challenging scenario. I hope corruption becomes eradicated, and the new CEO get the bad apples out of the company soon. There is still value for the current stock holders, in spite of the terrible decisions taken by the previous management and Board of directors team. Keep buying measured.
Hi guys need a few opinions on this one, If the IMF do come which is lookin very likely would you think they may consider completely nationalising AIB to put a full stop on the banking crises? All opinions welcome!
sorry not the march low that was 0.27, the march low closing price was 0.34, so we made history on the closing price of march 09, we have yet to test the low, but that looks pretty soon, I stuck in this with an average of .80, just got in before it completly fell apart, GL wit this
We cant believe anything they tell us, how did it pass the stress tests and then need another 2 billion? They fooled us all, We also seem to have made histoy today and beat the low of march 2009 which was 0.34, we closed at 0.332 today, If are shares are going to be worth around 0.5 after the rights then why is nobody brave enough to get in to this slaughter?? Im holding but its not looking very good so far
Lenihan said it is unlikely that a private underwiter can be found for AIB therefore the national pension reserve fund (nprf) will underwite the rights issue. each share will be bought at 50cents if no investor buys. Does that mean our shares will be "diluted" upwards as they are currently treading at 34cents.
What's the point throwing more dead money at this share? Loads more bad loans on their books which NAMA didn't take so more losses down the line even after RI(which will only compensate for NAMA haircuts) thus further cash calls with further share price dilution. At least that's my take on it. Plus where are future profits to be derived from to offset losses? Surely won't be much compensation for beleagured shareholders if taken over?