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possibly I exaggerated the effect a bit -the first trade- a sell was for £2480 but it tends to be noticed more being the first at that stage,another buy and a sell have swung it a little the other way now.Also at this time near the end of the tax year you get deliberate lossmaking to bAlance the CG books ...GL
I noticed the sell. Probably a P.I. who got tired of waiting for something to happen. Why is the spread suddenly lower than the normal range?
871m shares total..
interesting today-so far a drop of 9.76% on a spread of 5.56%.Only one deal,a sell of about 1.3m shares,from 187m total,which is quite a sizeable slice of the company..GL
I would have guessed a buy given how wide the spread is. But, who knows? I agree that until we know more this is not a share for speculators and anyone buying in would probably have to have some reason to feel confident in the company's future.
See the 2.5M share SELL late yesterday. See my point. Was it a sell or BUY?????
Don't know for sure,but who does? However, with no more news on the horizon, a share that has plummeted in price, no news of a TO or further development and sentiment against not only AFE but mining stocks in general, who else would be mad enough to buy these shares going forward unless; a. They already owned these shares and wanted to dramatically lower their average and b. Someone knows more than they are currently saying. IMHO, this is not one for the speculators at the moment that is until we receive further news!
What makes you think it is only one investor purchasing in multiples of 500K to one million at a time?
Looked at the Coburg site here,it is really just a cash shell whose gyrations should be ignored, they will keep it as that just ticking over to await events,giving somewhere to put things into as required ,the MCap is presently only £0.28m. Obviously that isn't the whole story.GL
With little or no information now forthcoming, I would assume that there are even less smaller PI's still holding.
Market Cap of AFE on todays price is £1.79M. As you are aware, we have a free carry for £20M. Assuming that minimum spending has been let on the project since we first signed the mining rights over, by my reckoning, AFEs interesting and thus valuation (SP), is far higher than the current SP suggests. At least 5x (plus) by my estimation. However, we need to see further mining development/a sale here to realize that potential. A waiting game I am afraid. More noticeably, someone (over time) has been buying the shares in multiples of 500K-1M chunks. DYOR. R.
following on from Ren's post,using Kitco.From early Feb,.nickel has risen from $6.25 to $7.3. The supply has been rising to a 5 year high,from 100,000 t in 2009 to 270,000 t now..This supply could dry up as they use up nickel stocks to save spending at higher prices..?...
Well at least a slight uptick is being held so far this week GL2U2
Thanks for posting. One way to look at this upsurge is that it may make the Dutwa project more attractive for any potential investors and help NC in clinching a deal. But, I am not getting my hopes up yet.
http://www.kitcometals.com/charts/nickel_historical_large.html#1year
I had a look at the RGM website. It is interesting to read about Nickel prices going crazy. How much does this influence AFE's share price? Possibly a little short term, but AFE are not a nickel producer or explorer any more. They just have a 10% carried interest in a company that owns the mining rights to land with huge amounts of nickel in the ground, but for now, now way of getting it out. I am not sure that the market puts much value on that. However, in the heat of the moment, when markets are going crazy I suppose the share price can, for a brief time, get caught up in that market frenzy. But, the share price does seem to swing dramatically day to day anyway during trading hours, with no news, only for it to end up in a relatively narrow range (unfortunately a slowly increasingly downward one). Good point about Euan Worthington. I don't know what led to him changing his mind, but clearly something gave him the belief that AFE may have a future. I suppose if he had pursued action he may have got a tiny fraction of a very small amount. By not pursuing action, his shares could be worth a small part of a much larger amount further down the line.
Generally speaking,there isn't any rule that says talented directors have to succeed.Though they themselves decide when their life story is written when the fat lady is seen to sing.,and therefore those watch from the outside should not judge. I follow careers of several associated with shares I've had. A. made discoveries from written-off areas bought from a major,made pots of money for his shareholders.Then he had a dispute about results based remunerations for him. The shareholders voted that down.He pumped huge amounts into new projects which were blank,now has retired,the company is still quite strong but far diminished from where it once was, B. another got into projects with the intention of selling these off then getting more.Unfortunately while the shares tanked from high levels,prospective buyers kept putting off finalising deals. Neither of these could be accused of nil benefits,in fact the shareholders who bailed out at the right time did well.The common factor wasn't any kind of incompetence,it was really the 2010 burst on commodity prices that did for those who tried hard,as much as for those who didn't. Unfortunately the ones who tried contained people who didn't deserve that fate,like MP for example.So I hope he does recover his losses.GL
didn't mention the previous director EW withdrawing his action for claiming back money.He also had plenty of readies planked in here,in shares and withdrew the chance of getting some back,though it would result in liquidation-the company at one point stated that wasn't in doubt.Possiblly a renewed belief by EW for some unknown reason ?
see some links over at RGM "nickel prices going crazy" etc.Yes on Kitco there is a price rise for nickel though as yet the supply is stable.GL Good post,thanks.Might be connected to this AFE rise this morning ?
Mogo - I absolutely agree. I think having seen his shareholding reduced to a fragment of what it was, he will do everything he can to turn the situation around. I also think he has another huge incentive for doing so. Dutwa was his discovery and the path to the BFS created by him. MP will not want to see the years of effort and resources (not to mention investors money) that he put into the project, go down the toilet. If he believed in the project when he was MD of African Eagle Resources, then I am sure he believes in its potential now. Also, let's not forget, Coburg made their investment after AFE's share price had tumbled, the BFS had been discontinued, AFE had effectively run out of cash, the previous board were disbanding and everything looked in turmoil. Why would they have invested in AFE at such a low point with the prospects appearing so bad, if MP and the rest of the Coburg board did not believe the situation could be turned around? I don't think they would have. What would have been the point of throwing good money after bad if they didn't believe that they could take AFE out of its turmoil and help NC in finding an investor / investors to help take Dutwa forward? There would have been no point. We are clearly not aware of all the facts and because NC's holdings are private, they are not required to disclose information that we might otherwise be made aware of. We are in a major uphill battle. but I was encouraged by Rob McLearon's email. Not because there was anything of great substance in there that made me feel that we are soon going to be turning a corner, but because he, like the rest of the board, are experienced mining / finance professionals, who I don't believe would bother wasting their time with this project, if they didn't feel like something significant could be achieved. And I believe from his email that they are doing everything they can to move AFE forward. There are one or two other significant factors at play. Dutwa was discovered in 2009 when all the financial markets were crashing, raising debt was near impossible and investors were very wary of mining projects, which made it very hard to get Dutwa off the ground. As the BFS progressed the global economy suffered another shock in the form of the European debt crisis. With further uncertainty in the glbal economy. institutional investors lost their appetite for risk and deserted risky mining stocks. Whilst we have not totally moved past this situation, I feel that things have greatly improved and the world economy is far more stable than it was two or three years ago. There are some uncertainties like China, but overall I feel the picture now is stronger and more certain. I feel that the odds are against us, but if NC, AFE, MP etc can turn things around, this share price will fly and our long wait will be rewarded. However, any investor will need the highest level of patience and should not set their expectations too high.
How might it appear from MP's angle ? He holds 4.3m shares,is that worth now about £8000 ? From 17p these shares have had their worth cut by 1/100 roughly..He is not a director of AFE though holds another position in Coburg of some influence to that. Linkeden lists his interests as-non exec director at Coburg and at Andiamo, and also as a director of Equator Gold..I'd say such a talented and admirable man would regard this situation as one needing rectifying sometime by as big rise in value.And he'd do his utmost to get to that.GL
I recently emailed African Eagle Resources, expressing my disappointment that they had not replied to my previous emails and requesting to know when we would find out more about what is happening at Dutwa and any other planned investments. This was the response from Robert McLearon, the MD. Dear XXXXX The enquiry form not forwarding details was raised with our website developers at the start of the year when I became aware of the issue and I believed it had been resolved, but obviously it has not been, for which I apologise. The developers are looking at it now. In answer to your questions: 1. The Tanzanian assets are now ultimately owned by a private company and as the minority shareholder any updates are dependent on being provided information by the ultimate owner and having their blessing to make the information public. We will seek to provide an update in due course and certainly would expect to be able to do so for the annual report, but again this is subject to the caveat. 2. Announcements on investments will be made when an opportunity is sufficiently advanced for it to be deemed to be price sensitive information. By sufficiently advanced I mean as soon as the terms are agreed (which may be subject to shareholder approval) as per the AIM rules. Markets continue to be very challenging but I can assure you that the Board (three of whom are shareholders) has been and continues to work very hard to fulfil the investing policy and begin an ascent for African Eagle and its shareholders. The AGM is likely to be around the same date as last year – 24 June. However, I do hope that any questions you or other shareholders might have can be answered before then, subject of course to the rules surrounding what is and is not in the public domain. Kind regards, Robert Robert McLearon Managing Director African Eagle Resources plc
with AIM yes all is unpredictable.AFE could equally have been in the money on reaching 17.75p back then lol.But in late 2010 a sudden change happened,the main markets had been recovering since March 2009 but commodities were fated to drop while main markets fuelled by QE went on and are still managing to do so somehow now that tapering is happening lol.There wasn't any Fed. handout for miners of course.In fact QE may have helped destroy many miners as it offered a supported market elsewhere the speculators could cash in on.Mining-even BLT suffered foir years. Nickel had been over $12/lb. in the end of 2010 but fell to about $6/lb. for the next few years.And supply rose.Several large nickel mines had been opened up,some of these had to be moth-balled and still are.All the maths from AFE's PFS figures was destroyed.A BFS was postponed.Unfortunately the old board had £millions raised by placings and even a rights issue which didn't go fully.A lot of the loss in value would have happened anyway if they'd just sat in Dutwa.But trying to develop it in a bear market misfired.Just the old problem of timing.In another universe it might have worked.Personally I just write off large losses and roll them forward towards future hopeful CG's offset against the annual £11k of CG relief.There has been a partial gold recovery but who knows ? Sometime whoever has the licence rights to Dutwa will do well but money -a lot -will be needed.The Chinese maybe ? GL DYOR
been in since 2009 Should have sold at 14/16 mid Nov09 but had high hopes Looking back at chart now looks lie Niagara Falls down down down, even with avge down still nowhere near ever breaking even Still thats AIM for you
they are looking to invest in other mining companies..