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Yes, the trend is clear. Revenue up, profit up, free cashflow up, income per customer up, insurance business up, membership up, deficit down, debt down, shorters down, share-trading volume up +2,000%, shareprice up +30% in just a few days. The corner is turning.
The sp here has clearly bottomed and we now have significant positive momentum , with insane volume on Thursday.
The unknown element here is what the shorters are going to do, with 40m of shorts to close they are going to have to play a perfect game or the short squeeze could send the sp into orbit . Gl to all invested , next week should be fun .
Yup, the Fed poured in $2 trillion last week, the EU will pour in $0.5 trillion next week, and the ECB wants to up it to $1.5 trillion before end of month. A tsunami of near-free cash supporting the market.
Yup, AA is sitting on a PE ratio of 1 (one). The FTSE All-Share Index today is sitting on a PE ratio of 13. Even if you halve it, then halve it again, in an ultra-conservative benchmark, you're looking at 45-50p for AA. Apply the same FTSE average, and you're looking at an AA shareprice of 150-200p.
Absolutely spot on. One thing you missed
Last trading update on 31st March they advised an EPS of 14.1p. Have you ever in your life seen an EPS that’s almost the same as the share price. Shares are worth a min of 50p
Great summary Skier,
Dipped my toe in here at 17p last week, may add next week, the future looks promising and not really recovered any ground mid virus, as others have.
Just been through the latest RNS and it all looks very positive and is summarised well in your crib sheet. It didn't do anything to the SP which is interesting and something that needs to be understood as well.
Skier brilliant write up.This quarter be even bigger I reckon,virtually no theft,everyone at home,hardly any breakdowns,nobody using cars,so very little outgoing on fuel recovery trucks
Revenue rising +2% to £1b.
Profit doubling to £107m.
Ebitda at £350m.
Roadside membership growing.
Average income per member rising.
Average income per business-customer rising.
Motor insurance unit growing +19%.
Average income per insurance policy rising +4%.
Conversion from roadside member to insurance leaping from 25% to 36%.
Free cashflow soaring sevenfold from £12m to £83m.
Cash in hand at £200m.
Pension deficit and total debt reduced by £300m.
The debt and pension corner is turning.
Dividend yield (when it returns) currently around 10%.
No material business impact from the plague.
Shorts have fallen rapidly from 11% in May 2019 to 8% in Mar 2020 and 6% in early Apr 2020.
Shorts today still have ~40 million shares to buy back.
Big short squeeze underway.
Technical charts today pointing strongly to 27p as the next stop.
Daily trading volume is currently 20-40 times higher than normal.
Rising price + rising volume = bullish sign.
Almost all major broker forecasts currently range from 50p to 200p.
Shareprice today = 19p / £115m...