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Tobin,
This has been estimated to have a true NAV of around 5p on a certain website.
I think that's overly harsh and see the proper NAV as around 25- 30p, but it's a guess.
Whatever, do not believe for one minute that this is trading at a discount, imho and be very careful.
"The Discount looks very attractive"
The discount to a fictional asset value? Seriously?
Discounts you'll see on most ITs are to a NAV that can be objectively measured by looking at the value of the underlying investments.
With WPCT, there's nothing but opinion about value, not facts, from a company with a staggeringly and proven bad ability to measure valuation. Valuations routinely rise and fall by a few hundred million or a billion at a stroke with little facts behind them.
Interesting that you have had success with turnarounds before. But every situation is different. What makes you think this will go up besides Schroders taking over? It seems like the portfolio is heavily reliant on a handful of companies for success. Really engrossing subject this one. Cheers
Im going to reply to myself .. it sound like there are still significant cross holdings with WEI. The NAV may go down more..
https://portfolio-adviser.com/projected-woodford-fund-losses-spell-trouble-for-wpct/
But how much is this priced in?/
One to watch if only for the learning experience...
The Discount looks very attractive. I have seen Investment trusts move to near 50% discounts on a couple of occasions and sometimes its is because the assets are over priced, but often it is because of over selling of a sector and fear sets in.
A couple of times I have bought at this sort of discount .. Russia IT, years ago and Pantheon International in 2008-9, that both did well, and Pantheon I still hold.
The NAV keeps getting written down still. Is this because there continues to be re-rating of holdings, or is it a double sell effect that shares associated with woodford are becoming no go areas?
If we are getting to the pointed of 50% discounts on already over sold shares the bounce could be very significant.
I have seen it before, and done well out of it; but contrarian investing is very hard on the sleep...