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These two are useful:
https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/romania/
Pecten: to date, they're using both Pfizer and AZ. There's a bit of vaccine scepticism but, on the upside, if I may be allowed a little stereotype, it's a nation of hypochondriacs, which is paying off for once. People joke that they're getting microchipped by the government but they'll get the jab anyway. The official public messaging is very supportive.
That's good news - always better to hear things direct . Stay safe
Out of curiosity, which vaccines(s) are being delivered? Is their an anti-vac conspiracy campaign on local social media?
I should supplement that by saying that Romania is doing relatively well so far, by EU standards, on vaccine rollout. Still tending to offer second doses soon after the first, so the percentage having had a first dose is slower to rise than it was in UK. But the uptake is reasonably good and there is supply.
Pecten: thank. I agree.
Currently, due to a recent rise in case numbers and with an eye on the upcoming Orthodox Easter, there are increased controls on shopping hours and the usual sorts of controls on gathering and non-essential movement. But it's all in a pretty familiar bracket. I walk out each day to the local shops and work from home. Last spring, for a while, there was a paper form to fill in each time one left the house; but I don't think any local jurisdictions are using it right now. Not where I am, anyway.
Sandy - thanks for the replies
It's much more constructive when you can actually debate a point than most of 'going to the moon' / 'sinking without trace' comments - unknown motives, is I think a good way of putting it.
Btw - though I dont know what it is, and I doubt you'd reveal it on there- good luck with your business.
What's the Covid situation like atm in Bucharest/Romania
Pecten: "Actually ignore my previous 'worst case scenario' below - why would they do that while sitting on so many warrants".
Missed that. But I think it's still worth asking the question (if one wants) because Atlas have not behaved as expected - as we were both noting - and there are clearly motives in play that are not immediately obvious.
Pecten: it's a good question, which this morning's discussion has brought to my mind too.
Perhaps my first question is whether Vast is entitled to settle by equity in place of cash, even if Atlas do not issue a conversion notice. I can't remember off hand. I would reread the bloody thing (and maybe will) except that I am more interested in putting my cash into my own business right now, and would rather see Vast get its house in order before having another punt.
In any case, all these knotty issues are why, in view of another refinance failure, I walked away in January. One ends up spending huge amounts of time only to get a custard pie in the face. We need a transparent, good debt finance that people can have confidence in, along with operational delivery of this new mining plan by the new mining professionals.
Actually ignore my previous 'worst case scenario' below - why would they do that while sitting on so many warrants
Sandy, if playing devils advocate - what would happen if Atlas didn't issue anymore conversion notices until the two year anniversary and VAST hadnt accumulated enough cash to pay it off?
As Gkb says, they're into finance not mining, so dont think it likley (unless they had a buyer lined up?)
Gkb - see below ref the mention of WRES and Atlas conversion below nominal
https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/WRES/atlas-conversion-notice-vee13acd765p3ya.html
Pecten: they might of course just be waiting to do a whopping conversion now that so much of their entitlement has rolled over and accumulated. That's the downside possibility. As for the March spike: true, but they've converted so little to date that we still need a broader explanation, really. Thanks for reminding me about the warrants.
One thing I'd forgotten was the conversion was based on 20 trading days VWAP, so logically the would wait under March's little spike was out of the equation
As they get 1 warrant per share (@.24p) surely it's in their interest to maximise the number of shares they get issued, then sit on the warrants until their in the money?
Vast only default on the Atlas bond if they don't pay any remaining outstanding non converted or cash settled debt by the bond expiry - 31/1/22. Interest is accruable.
So much lying goes on here.
Pecten: fair enough. Perhaps, then, the question is at what SP to the upside Atlas would see their return as being better than grubbing in the gutter. One obvious hypothesis would be that they are reckoning on their premium above 0.24.
Sandy thanks for an answer - re 'I guess Atlas are just less short-term in their financing policy, '
Though it appears to be a more direct CLN over on WRES, your suggestion above doesn't seem to play out that way there - that's one of the reasons I find their non-conversion here odd
Thanks Buko & Sandy for clarifying where we stand with Mercuria, much appreciate the info.
Pecten: despite recurrent references to "death spiral" on this BB, Atlas does not seem habitually to operate on the model of converting ever larger amounts of shares at ever lower prices, which is the classic SP-trashing structure that is normally described as a "death spiral". Good examples would be both Crede and Bracknor, which Vast's previous CEO turned to with appalling results for shareholders.
One smidgen of credit to AP is that he has avoided those structures. Atlas were confined on their rate of conversion and their historic business model does not operate that way. (AH made this point in the Q&A.)
I guess Atlas are just less short-term in their financing policy, and are broadly happy to work within the framework of their 2-year bond, and let it play out. Some financiers will calculate that that's the area of the market they'd rather work in.
Buko - thanks for the excerpts.
To be pedantic though ' Subject to certain terms and conditions and completion of CP’s', we have no knowledge of what t&c are referred to, or which precedent conditions need(ed) to be satisfied
Sandy - agree re your post
A default re Atlas would only occur if VAST didn't settle an interest payment or a conversion notice.
Vast would have to RNS any issuance of new shares, so it has to be assumed they are currently settling monthly interest payments in cash - why Atlas have not issued a conversion notice is interesting though - at the current SP ( yes the discount to VWAP would be under nominal value, but they achieved similar on WRES by agreeing a cash 'make up' payment), they would potentially benefit the most by any later SP rise.
Can anyone suggest a reason that is beneficial to Atlas to not issue a conversion notice at the moment?
buko: thank you for your agreement on SSGS.
I agree with you, of course, that there is an outstanding debt to Mercuria, which is indeed a matter of record. But as you know, Vast and Mercuria have a standstill agreement in place (also RNSed) to say that no payments are due to Mercuria for the lifetime of the Atlas bond - and thereafter, Mercuria will be settled from revenue.
So Mercuria debt is an issue but not till after 27 January 2022. It is something that would hopefully be dealt with in a refinance.
Vast still owe Mercuria $3m plus from tranche A..
RNS 9th May 2018
Notwithstanding the requirement to issue further warrants to Mercuria, the Company is working closely with both Mercuria and the Swiss bank who, as announced on 29 April 2019, have issued to the Company a draft term sheet containing the material indicative terms for new finance. Should the term sheet be consummated on its current terms the Company’s obligation to Mercuria would be repaid in full out of the new finance obtained, and Mercuria have indicated its interest to continue its existing offtake contracts with the Company subject to certain conditions.
Rns 31st January 2020
1. Subject to certain terms and conditions and completion of CP’s the remaining principal and interest, fees and costs accrued on the remaining existing Mercuria Tranche A facility will be recovered from future cash flow. Offtake agreements will remain with Mercuria.
Sandy correct on the SSGS .
The RNS of 24 October 2019 is indeed the correct RNS to refer to. But anyone who reads it will realize that Vast is not in default. As I mentioned earlier, the bond has a 2-year term. Prior to that, any conversions that Atlas have requested have been processed. So there is no default at present.
Tiger is also behind the times on SSGS. They were fully settled via Atlas and that was RNSed.
There are genuine issues about Vast's finances to be resolved. But there is absolutely no need to make these appear worse than they are.
RNS - 24th October 2019 plus knowledge of customary terms of these "death spiral" bonds. I'm assuming to an extent as it's not stated explicitly, but Vast are likely to be in default.
It would also be interesting to know how much Vast still owe to SSGS and Mercuria, and if they are in good standing on those debts as well. But it's Atlas who have security over Baita Plai, so that's the debt that matters most.
As said, if I were a Romanian mining entrepreneur, I'd be thinking there might be an opportunity here. At this point Atlas will be concerned about Vast's ability to pay, so I'd think they'd be open to a negotiation.
treble: he has either invented it or misunderstood. The RNS about Atlas terms makes the 2-year bond provision clear.