The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring financial educator and author Jared Dillian has been released. Listen here.
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just watched vid - Rick Rule on palisades gold radio youtube - He loves Russia , says the so say safe jurisdictions are vastly overrated - and the premiums for these alleged safe jurisdictions is way too high
Interesting
Also it is worth mentioning once again TSG increased 2020 production guidance of 38,000 and 42,000 ounces to between 44,000 and 45,000 ounces last year and then went and beat upper end guidance!
I think there is a strong possibility TSG will be aiming for 50,000 ounces and leave themselves ample room to beat forecasts once more.
If you haven't yet seen the drilling results announced last autumn for Vein 25 make sure you take a look.
https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/TSG/drilling-exploration-update-s7clbldrt6wmpue.html
Artrader makes an interesting point about revenue surpassing Q120 in just the first two months. The grades processed in Q120 (5.2g/t) were actually very similar to the first two months of 2021 (5.1g/t) so we have a base for estimating costs.
We didn't sell any silver in that period last year which would have impacted the already disappointing Q120 figures. We should still be benefitting from silver sales at current elevated prices of $25/oz or more, this isn't mentioned nor is it included in the 'Average realised gold price' TSG like to report (see previous quarterly updates for clarification).
Revenue in the first two months therefore likely did even better than Q120, exceeding $10m revenue after only 2 months despite grades falling to their lowest since Q217.
As mentioned by fellow holders now Vein 25 has resumed production we might expect 4-6 weeks of blending the lower grade mined ore with the anticipated higher grade material, which will result in increased output of gold ounces and a driving down of costs.
I'm just making a minor point here the_shareminator about "the similarities are not so obvious".
I wasn't saying that NN is a similar company to TSG. My point was that any new rules that are introduced or tightening of rules will apply to all Russian miners. That's all I was saying.
Art trader seems to have a good handle on the 'art of the possible' here in 2021 .. and while i'm always somewhat cautious about his lack of balance, given the figures - he/they - quoted my guess is if he's being too bullish in his today predictions it will only be a bit too bullish.
Whatever , very little time to wait for a further clearer picture anyway.. including any fine that may/may not be levied :
''Once the investigations are completed and the recommendations known, the Company will publish production and dividend guidance for FY2021. This is expected to be on or around the end of March 2021.
TSG expects to report first quarter 2021 production with an operations update from the Asacha Gold Mine in April 2021.''
Altogether, my instinct now is that this s/p will be somewhat decently north of 110p by early May ..and May ain't far away !
They have already achieved last years 1st quarter revenue after only 2 months 5,122oz @$1819 = $9.3m and that was working at the lower yield.
We haven't had guidance yet but I'm assuming with Vein 25 opened it should be in the region of 50-60k oz but difficult to guess the Revenue just on quantity. I always look at the profit and not how much gold they dig out as 1st quarter 2020 they produced 6k oz for $9.3m.
Vein 25 did have a yield in the 4th Quarter 2020 of 10.3g/t and proceed 15,217oz
Wow the Asacha update today came quicker than most of us were hoping! Okay in it, they mention grade mined in the first two months as being 5.1g/t so are costs / profits going to be much lower?
And how will production of 5,122 oz measure up with previous quarters? Are we still on track to reach guidance?
I also read that but besides being a Russian miner the similarities are not so obvious.
Norilsk's operations have been suspended for months due to flooding, specifically related to one of it's factories which will eventually be brought back online. This will have an impact on group production and costs, with their pledge to invest millions into H&S schemes but Norilsk are a multi-billion dollar company and can absorb these short term losses. I think the major concern of environmental fines, which was a concern has been avoided for now.
With regards TSG we are waiting to see whether the higher grade vein 25 will be safe to mine once more. In the meantime TSG are still mining and processing ore from other sections of the mine. Production will be affected by a drop in grades and therefore an aggregate increase in costs, the scale of the problem is an unknown at this time though.
I don't believe the Board have reduced guidance since the accident as they are still awaiting details of the RTN report. We will probably have to wait until mid April to hear more about the grade of ore being mined and more details as to the future of Vein 25 are released.
A long wait until then.