Adam Davidson, CEO of Trident Royalties, discusses offtake milestones and catalysts to boost FY24. Watch the video here.
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SNN,
Thanks for the chuckle in your first sentence to me. Seems to me you get me regarding my deity.
Cheers Radium, you don't do too badly yourself btw.
Dog, I too hope to God they get ctv right. There are dozens of streaming services, but most are niche with few viewers and low add spend. Magnite have referred to this often and are waiting to pounce on bigger fish. The big money will be in the mainstream services on the scale of Netflix & Disney. Getting substantial share there is key. TTD are clearly in the running, JG said as much. The concern is that competition will drive down rates and analysts are picking on this, hence, doubts about future growth rates. ACR data is very valuable, hence, OEMs keeping it behind their own walled gardens. TRMR plan to open up acr data, and then that may pull in more demand and supply from all round. I wish they could get their dsp on a level with TTD, which is self serve, that would really get our growth super charged.
https://flixed.io/complete-list-streaming-services/
BTW: I answered my own question by speculating 'it's got to be the margin'.
It would have been decent of mgt. had they been transparent with us, the company's owners, and simply told us what was going on, rather than making us wonder. That would have been the right thing to do.
These guys cannot hold a candle to the management of PERI.
SNN, thanks from this side of North America.
I must add, I pray to Money they get it right on CTV. I noticed during the presentation and subsequent review of the CC the change from CTV as a percentage of total spend vs ex-TAC, and it made me ask 'what are they hiding from us?'
I still wonder.
Do they think we're so effing stupid we won't bother to ask?
Looking at the recommends of the post it looks like others endorse your opinion, as I do, THANK YOU SNN
Link Courtesy of borgioli...
https://www.thetradedesk.com/us/news/its-not-just-netflix-every-streaming-service-will-have-ads-by-2024-the-trade-desk-ceo-predicts
Extract...What is perhaps less well-understood, Green contends, is the positive impact consumer choice will have on advertiser flight to premium TV content. As advertisers follow consumer eyeballs to streaming platforms, they increasingly want to advertise against trusted premium content and de-emphasize user-generated content. With more premium streamers offering advertising inventory, Green believes that advertisers will accelerate their shift to CTV.
This could be huge for advertising and connected TV.
SNN, I feel sure I am not alone in wishing to say that your input here is truly appreciated.
Cheers Radium. Fincap supports my own calcs. As Alphonso drops from the comparatives, gross CTV spend growth should show more clearly. It's already there if you dig deep enough. They have pretty much caught up on what was lost.
On the plus side, the trend to self service is welcome as advertisers get more confident in using this. Also, self serve means TRMR needs proportionately less staff than in managed services, so the margin of EBITDA to net revenue should be stronger.
Lots of different margins - hope it makes sense.
SNN re your…This shows in the figures, as they (Tremor) show gross spend for CTV (no longer give net revenue figures) - it's at a lower margin of net rev to gross spend. I have played on a spreadsheet at some depth on this (using all data from results and comparatives) and conclude it's now about 35%, so net ctv revenue is about $16m ($18m last year, so you can see why they did not give a net rev figure).
finnCap, in their note, drew attention to Tremor’s use of ‘gross’ CTV spend rather than net spend for future reporting…
Extract from finnCap note…Alongside self-serve and PMP revenue scaling, we expect that Tremor will switch to reporting growth in the gross CTV spend on its platform, as its gross CTV spend will highlight its momentum gaining share within the market, without the distortion created in CTV net revenue by these channels. We expect the +21% yoy growth in Q1 22 CTV spend will accelerate through H2, as Tremor’s strengthening platform will continue to capitalise on the structural shift to CTV.
Another version of the transcript - https://www.fool.com/earnings/call-transcripts/2022/05/17/tremor-international-ltd-trmr-q1-2022-earnings-cal/?source=eptyholnk0000202&utm_source=yahoo-host&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=article
Much easier to read it in my own voice, in my own head, with appropriate grammatical pauses and in my own accent. Makes more sense. Also, I found the sound quality very poor on the call and playback. Figures and guidance do appear poor, basically flat on last year. Made worse by the strong performance in performance, i.e. programmatic was even lower, only 6% growth, per rns.
Positives are that revenue so far this Q is above Q1 at the same point in time (they had better be, as Q1 is the weakest), seem optimistic re Vidaa and growth in CTV, esp self serve income. This shows in the figures, as they show gross spend for CTV (no longer give net revenue figures) - it's at a lower margin of net rev to gross spend. I have played on a spreadsheet at some depth on this (using all data from results and comparatives) and conclude it's now about 35%, so net ctv revenue is about $16m ($18m last year, so you can see why they did not give a net rev figure). However, last year includes Alphonso. Stripping out Alphonso (and that acr data is on a very big margin) the pure comparatives on a like for like basis are actually rather good. I estimate about 58% growth in gross spend, ex Alphonso. Vidaa should also produce very high margin returns on acr data, which can be leveraged for a wide range of purposes.
There is a strange one off figure of $5m described as other income, but I cannot see any explanation as to what this is????
Re Alphonso - they were loss making and Tremor lent them money to see them to profitability. Tremor will certainly get judgement to have that cash repaid. As for the rest of the case, I can't offer an opinion. They terminated some contracts early and it seems paid those parties for the breach. Tremor was further down the chain. This may (or may not be) perfectly legal and just aggressive, but normal business practice - hence, why it's gone to court, it's a grey area. Any settlement will not effect profits or future profits, so will be insignificant to the value of the company.
I can see US markets falling further, esp the Nasdaq, easily below 11,000, if 10,000 goes then 9,000 will! Ad tec is now cheap, so although it will fall too, percentage wise should be more limited.
Re M&A - not sure what they could buy now, they have all the components of a full stack. Perhaps some thing not in the US, to boost international growth? Curious. They also said if no acquisition, they will look at alternatives to returning value to SHs - also curious, increasing buyback, a dividend or a tender offer?
Tricky....there he is...
I wonder about the health of posters when I don't hear from them for a while. Rather uncharacteristic of you to stay away with so much going on.
J Depp got more than a handful when he hooked up with that one, that's for sure.
Hi doggy,
I'm waiting to hear of a marriage for Tremor, but hopefully not of the J. Depp variety.
Hi gdog, still here, just didnt think I had anything meaningful to add to the interesting conversations already posted. All the best.
Extracts of note from Tremors CC…During Q1 in this point in Q2, we have achieved significant progress that has helped enhance and expand our platform and believe we are well-positioned for positive industry, and Tremor specific catalysts expected in the second a of 2022. We are very excited for exclusive and unique global ACR data partnership with VIDAA, a subsidiary of Hisense, which expected to accelerate our U.S. and international growth over the second half of 2022 and beyond in key market, such as Canada, Australia, the U.K. and Germany….Hisense is currently one of the largest OEMs in terms of global market share and is ambitious to continue significantly expanding its reach, sell and customer recognition over the next several years in the U.S. and internationally. VIDAA is the operating system for major OEMs, including Hisense, Toshiba, and others. … And we intend to use this meaningful ACR data partnership for segmentation, measurement and targeting purposes. The availability of ACR data on the open internet give advertiser choice in their media mix, so they can leverage the data to run holistic strategic campaign that reach consumers whatever they viewing content….While we have been leveraging ACR data for several years, our partnership with VIDAA is exclusive and broad-based across data and media and enable us to offer unique and desirable capabilities, data sets, and advertising opportunities for our customers. In adtech, it's rare to have access to ACR data outside of the world gardens that is accessible on the open internet. This data will be available in our TV intelligence solution, which already reached 44 million U.S. household and will enable us to offer customers differentiated campaign strategies and optimization, as well as exclusive blended and customized data sets that support their marketing KPIs…. We believe VIDAA currently reaches approximately 20 million smart TVs worldwide, and we believe this reach will grow substantially in the coming years. VIDAA expands relationship with Tremor beyond data in generally, selecting and ruling as its strategic SSP, while also adapting Spearad to enhance control over a CTV ad delivery. Brands and agencies will now have to leverage Unruly to advertise on the exclusive content of TV for which VIDAA serves as the operating system.
This, along with the previously posted CC closing comments, is why I've lifted my horizon to the second half of this year.
Hey Baldy, et al....
(Where are Tricky, Rusty, Coathanger, Curly, etc.?)
Baldy, yes, the conference call is at times hard to understand. This is why I always try to listen to it live, then I wait until the written transcript comes out (I am a paid SA subscriber so I get all CC transcripts), and I listen to the calls again with the transcript on one screen and the presentation deck on another. I frequently pause the payback to go over the numbers in the deck, and often refer to previous reports and SEC filings while the CC replay is on pause. Yesterday it took me about 2 hours to listen to our ca 51 minute CC from the same day.
What I found a bit of a red flag is our guidance for the current quarter. As far as net revenue, we're guiding for only 1.2% growth on the low end, mid-point 5.16%, and top of guidance only calls for growth of 8.5%.
EBITDA growth is only guided for +7.2%.
Note: We are over halfway through the current quarter, so they've a bit of a clue (one would think). They did mention they're being conservative, taking into account Covid, Ukraine, supply chain issues and inflation.
This is why I said, in the genesis of this thread, the following: "Fingers crossed we execute in the second half, because this company is on sale, and it's on sale at a huge discount to market."
Extract from Tremor’s CC closing remarks…And we are looking at the second half of the year with anticipation, because we are about to launch our partnership with VIDAA, which is very meaningful for us. We have to look at it as one of the biggest OEM companies that basically provide us exclusivity on all the ACR data that enable targeting and measurement. And we are talking here about a company that's already now is about 10% of the U.S. OEM. And with their plans and the growth paths, and also with the international markets that they are very active in, we believe that we can -- it will help us to grow our business even more and to be a dominant player in the CTV business.
And to provide a lot of capabilities to the open web as we talk about it, because when you look at that, as I mention until now, the data is basically the property of small group of companies that our -- the world gather. And now, basically with us, we will be able to open it to more partners, to more media partners and to more people to enjoy from this data for targeting and measurement from the demand side, but also from the supply side.
Albeit, hitherto trimmed…Tremor International (TRMR) PT Raised to $21 at RBC Capital today…
https://www.streetinsider.com/Analyst+PT+Change/Tremor+International+%28TRMR%29+PT+Raised+to+%2421+at+RBC+Capital/20094863.html
The transcript was rather garbled but I think I understood that a merger/acquisition is quite likely....let's hope they find a good investment for some of the cash pile.
I haven’t heard a case to say we are overvalued by anybody. In the current climate you wouldn’t get close to 1700p but a bid at 1000-1100p could well be enough for the big boys to part with their shares.
The share price is certainly testing patience considering we are in the middle of a buyback and the SP erodes on a daily basis. After final results we went from 480p to 620p and now down over 30% in 3 months.
They seem keen on an acquisition so it could well be a busy period for TRMR. Failing any meaningful M&A they should go super aggressive in my opinion on the buyback and throw in a further $75 million and acquire at 200,000 shares a day instead of 75,000-100,000 a day. The cash balance would still be at $400 million FY22 end with that additional buyback.
Courtesy 1gw ....Seeking Alpha Conference Call transcript...
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4512648-tremor-international-ltd-trmr-ceo-ofer-druker-on-q1-2022-results-earnings-call-transcript...
"I think it's giving us the ability to do this move and to basically accelerate or grow the buyback and parallel to that to do an M&A deal that can be meaningful for the company. And this is what we are looking to do and ask and searching in the market for the right target in order to get it into our company, basically, and to grow also through and acquisition and not just organically." ... "And we feel that now -- also to M&A because the company is ready for that. And I think that we have the -- again, we have the means, the knowledge and the experience to make a good acquisition, and we're looking for the right opportunity in order to do this.
"....finnCap retains a £17 price target for Tremor. "
=====================================================
I don't know if that is reassuring or not. Given that market sentiment is driving the SP lower and £8 seems some way off (never mind £17), it makes me think finncap 'price targets' aren't worth the paper they are written on....unless one runs out of toilet paper.
It must be a wonderful job being a finncap analyst....I wonder if they use a 'pin the tail on the donkey' methodology or some hitech random number generator software!!
You can read finnCap’s latest and updated Research Note on Tremor International by registering (free) via the link below. finnCap retains a £17 price target for Tremor.
https://www.finncap.com/research-portal#/portal/finncap
I haven’t listened in yet gdog. On my list to do today though.
The SBC puts a real dampener on cash flow but once that’s clear, the fcf is immense and we are loaded up with a much stronger second half of the year. Sentiment in ad-tech is very low so now is our chance to capitalise on bargain prices. It’s also comforting knowing that we are now at 50% cash to the market cap.
I just listened to the call again, this time very carefully.
I am a lot more optimistic now than I was this morning.
Fingers crossed we execute in the second half, because this company is on sale, and it's on sale at a huge discount to market.