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And took a "peek", not "peak".
I imagine you understood my intent just the same.
Hey SP,
Looking back at some of your old posts brought back memories of old posters.
Andy and I've been in contact, off and on, over the past few years. Over this past year I implored him to take another look at TRMR.L, telling him 'it's not the same company'. He took a peak, but I don't know if I sold him on the prospect of going long once again. I think he was left with a really bad taste from the last go-around.
I'll write him again after the next CC to check in with him, at which time I'll tell him hello from you.
SP180,
See link to your posts.
https://www.lse.co.uk/profiles/sp180/
1) CTV has been around for years. As can be seen in your previous posts you were bullish about blnx(rthm) cross devices, inc CTV (see your post of Feb 2016). CTV is another device, it doesn't change the opaque nature of ad tech eco system nor the challenges the ecosystem faces.
2) In your previous posts from 2016 (see link to your posts), you repeatedly refer to Dan to backup your and blnx(now rtmn, merged with trmr) bullish stance on their prospects. Several times you mention you had spoken to him to back up that stance. Obviously Dan, having worked as Chief Operating Officer of rthm, has many years experience of working within ad tech ecosystem.
Since that bullish stance Dan has commented on ad tech fraud. Given you had previously used his comments to backup your bullish stance, do you agree with his comments from 2018 that fraud follows ad tech money??
This was soon after rthm/yume takeover (and you say you stopped posting).
4 months later rthm merged with tap to form trmr.
Dan Slivjanovski, ex COO/CMO of rthm talks about fraud and transparency within the ad tech ecosystem...
"Trust in an Ad-Supported Internet is Eroding.
Fake news, digital ad fraud, and data privacy are pressing issues threatening the trust and confidence in an ad-supported internet. While advertisers continue to demand transparency of their partners downstream, even going so far as to hold budgets hostage, consumers who have enjoyed positive, emotional connections with their brands online‚¬are at risk of turning off due to privacy concerns. Stakeholders will expect even greater clarity and accountability in the quality of the online platforms and content that they invest behind"
Fraud Follows the Money
"Third-party verification has successfully reduced desktop digital ad fraud to low single digits.
Now, with mobile apps commanding more than 50% of a consumer's time online, advertiser demand for quality mobile inventory has swelled. In return, we've seen an 800% increase of in-app ad fraud. Expect that in-app ad fraud will continue to accelerate as fraud follows the money. Also, expect emerging premium, high-growth media types such as connected TV (CTV) to draw the attention of fraudsters‚ in line with sharp increases in budget allocation."
http://www.adotas.com/2019/01/2019-ad-predictions-cmo-doubleverify/
and more recently:
CTV Fraud Scheme Costs up to $50m
"Discovered by digital media measurement and verification platform DoubleVerify, the scheme named ParrotTerra is estimated to have cost advertisers between USD $30m (£21.7m) and USD $50m (£36.1m) in stolen spend."
The fallout from ParrotTerra will no doubt amplify calls for greater transparency across the CTV supply chain, and more comprehensive solutions for tackling bad actors."
https://www.exchangewire.com/blog/2021/02/10/bloomberg-media-aspires-for-100m-from-consumer-subs-ctv-frau
Hey Dawg, I’m well thanks, I hope you are too. I really should reach out to our friend Andy I haven’t spoken to him in years.
Rusty et al, thanks I hope you are all well.
As i’ve said I have continued to hold throughout, post YuMe was hard to stomach and then following the TAP acquisition it became a complete mattress stock for me. I didn’t rate the TAP business having seen commentary suggesting industry insiders couldn’t work out how it was achieving the performance metrics it was. As such I would speculate that there may have been some validity to the suit, having said that TAP has fast become an immaterial contributor to the revenue and suspect we are past the worst of the drop off there with the volumes having been drastically reduced.
The fact Ofer has managed to integrate multiple companies in a messy and distressed state while managing the decline of mobile performance revenue, pulling off the Unruly deal at a valuation that shocked the industry and doing so while keeping investor sentiment high is very respectable in my opinion and I look forward to seeing what he can achieve in smoother waters with revitalised optimism.
STT,
My post count was >200 but posts under RTHM have disappeared; a search on ADVFN will show other investors referencing posts I made in 2017. I had a small investment in BLNX in 2013 after the blatant bear raid I attended the 2014 AGM and every subsequent AGM to better understand the journey of the company and industry. I topped up along the way to the present day with a long term buy and hold strategy. Unlike you my M.O. is transparent. What's your point?
I don’t know why you have got such a hard-on for elections, other than ’20 where digital ad spend grew by low single digits, YOY since records began global digital ad spend has increased by a double digit %. Total global digital ad spend was predicted to be $330B as of June ’20.
The prediction for US political ad spend was $6.89B with TV taking $4.55B and digital $1.34B. Of that digital spend Facebook and Google were predicted to take 77.6% of that leaving $300MM for everyone else. Source eMarketer.
As it turned out spend beat expectations and was $8.5B with broadcast taking 49.3% and digital 24.5% ($2.82B), on the same assumed split between the duopoly and the rest it would leave $466MM for everyone else. Bottom line is ’20 US political digital ad spend was <1% of global digital ad spend in a year that saw slower growth due to the pandemic and spend has increased YOY regardless of elections.
YuMe, boy was that one ****ty deal. I said I wasn’t going to reminisce but I believe 1R investors could have got to where we are today with significantly less dilution and destruction. Investors close to the company can probably work out my views from the YuMe F4 timetable. I won’t say any more on that, it’s split milk under the bridge.
As Tricky highlighted you fail to comprehend that regulation and challenges are good for scaled players in an industry, it creates speed bumps but it also separates the wheat from the chaff and increases the boundaries to entry. Those left standing reap the rewards. Zuckerberg has been crying out for more regulation because he knows there is always the possibility another kid in their dorm room could come along to challenge him like he did to MySpace, regulation would make that much more difficult.
CTV is nascent and currently represents c. $8B out of $330B of digital spend. But it’s growing at 100% YOY relative to total spend that is predicted to grow at high single digits going forwards (as it continues to take market share from linear). It also commands significantly higher CPM’s between $20 and $40. With that, as it always has, fraud follows the money and therefore it’s vital the inventory is sold through PMP’s and programmatic direct where quality assurances are in place. Only a moron would buy CTV in the open marketplace.
If you stopped looking at this company and industry Q by Q you would see how the landscape is maturing. This isn’t jam it’s scotch and after a decade in the barrel the industry is starting to produce some fruity flavours
Thanks for the comprehensive post and the link to your thoughts SP180 - I will definitely read it!
Pasio
The calculating sociopath won't stop.
After all, it's all just a game and the people are pawns.
Good evening SP180, Nice to have an informed post about the company. Well done and Thank you. Keep them coming, Please. !!!
Sp180,
I noticed from your posting history that prior to your post today, your previous post was in 2016, 5 yrs ago, which was the year of the previous US Election. You joined here in May 2014, just after the 2014 sp crash when the blnx(rthm) eq sp was around £28.
Your previous post was also when the previous US Election took place, in 2016.
https://www.lse.co.uk/profiles/sp180/
Looking at your bullish posts from 2014 to 2016, you mention CTV, multiple devices and blnx(now rthm, merged with trmr) are well placed to benefit from the cross device solution.
What happened? They failed to backup the bullish comments when it came to results. AS Expected.
Given rthm previously failed to backup their/your previous bullish comments why should it be different this time?
You'll remember that:
In 2013-14 blnx(now rthm, merged with trmr) surged from eq sp 1170p to 2800p (100p to 240p, old money) before crashing back down on events/results.
In 2016/17 they tripled from eq sp 200p to 580p (16p old money to 50p,) on the back of bullish comments and crashed back down on events/results.
Then crashed back down because of facts - industry challenges.
In 2017, the eq sp was 589p (old 50p). Rthm/takeover of Yume at $185m and then subsequent merging rthm/Yume with trmr at a valuation $175m, which was lower than rthm paid for Yume alone!!
Looking at rthm results from 2015 to 2018, they never backed up their bullish comments when it came to results.
rthm had $78m for fy2016 but virtually all disappeared by the time they merged with trmr in 2019.
(They need huge cash pile to pay for inventory, with the long payment timescales.)
Period, revenue, cash
fy2015 $214.9m $95.7m ($20.8m)
fy2016 $166.7m $78.4m ($92.3m)
fy2017 $175m $75m ($18.7m) *(inc Perk acquisition q3 2017)
fy2018 $255m $27m ($13.8m) (inc Rad1 & Yume acquisitions)
Trmr:
period, revenue, adj ebitda, cash
2018, $276.9m, $44.1m, $54.4m *** no contribution from rthm
2019, $325.8m, $60.4m, $76.9m *** 8 months contribution from rthm
2020e, $404-$408m, $58-60m, $96m *** Inc full year contribution from rthm & Unruly
A most refreshing and insightful post - SP180,
Of course there are challenges in every business/industry, we can all agree on that, to only highlight them negatively without considering the positives indicates an imbalance, this is where we are with stt1.
The ad tech ecosystem is such a huge and complex field that it takes some effort to understand the workings and the scenarios.
Partly because ad tech is changing so rapidly, as new communication technology develops and spreads, and also because the inner mechanisms are obscured by terms that often just have three letters to unravel.
SSP, DSP, DMP, CTV, VOD, and many more.
Even if you can understand each abbreviation it is difficult to work out which company operates the better solution now and is planning future systems that will cope better with changes in the ecosystem to come.
We have transmission technology, advertising business models, and then the workings of the markets to consider.
Also acquisitions and expansion abroad.
No investor and no company can have certainty in the light of the above, therefore we remain cautious but reasonably optimistic since huge opportunities are out there for the taking.
If stt1 doesn't like it he can clear off!
Hey SP,
I trust you're doing well, and it's great hear your voice. Don't be such a stranger.
I'll gladly read your manifesto when I've a bit more time.
Dawg Out
Hey All,
Nice to see there are still so many LTHs still posting and Dawg coming back over the pond.
I haven’t posted since the ‘18 AGM when Gordon Gekko had taken control and spent the AGM playing on his phone. Which in my opinion was real low point for 1R investors, I could elaborate on my views but they’re somewhat conjecture, likely highly controversial and probably don’t serve great purpose taking a trip down memory lane.
I do think Ofer has been fortunate or lucky in acquiring the scale of YuMe, RhythmOne and Tremor at a turning point for the industry though I think his focus and strategy of utilising and strengthening these assets as well as making them lean has so far been excellent. As standalone entities I believe all three would have struggled. Unruly was a fantastic complimentary deal.
Like many other posters I’m frustrated by STT’s acceleration of negative posting and repetitive drivel. Not that I have an issue with contrarian views I’d welcome more of them but STT has demonstrated he doesn’t understand the industry, he doesn’t understand the context of the ‘news flow’ he keeps posting and has grinded his axe so much he’s left holding the stub of the handle.
Each to their own regarding filtering him or anyone else but if investors wish to respond equally they should have the right to do so without criticism. All I know is that he once held a share certificate in RTHM which puts previous conjectures that he was a disgruntled employee ect to bed. While his drivel will make zero impact to the long term direction of the share price I also know that his opinions have affected sentiment of individual investors. Either he has been trading this short or he lost so much money he's deranged.
As far as discontinuing RTHM products, if he actually understood the companies statements he would realise that Ofer is not operating a holding company and has been quick to integrate all of the assets with Tremor being the DSP going forwards, Rhythm being the exchange and DMP and Unruly being the SSP. All too often adtech M&A results in companies running multiple platforms or attempting to stitch them together. Will be interesting to see how MGNI integrate SpotX.
I’ve put together my thoughts on the topics below in a 1500 word pdf as to not spam the board.
https://www.dropbox.com/s/6s4bm8htng15259/sp180-trmr.pdf?dl=0
- Ad tech Bubble or Consolidation & Spend Driving Revaluation
- Walled Gardens Vs Independents and the fall of DSPs
- Cookies, UID2, ICO
- Some interesting screen shots from the investor presentation