The next focusIR Investor Webinar takes places on 14th May with guest speakers from WS Blue Whale Growth Fund, Taseko Mines, Kavango Resources and CQS Natural Resources fund. Please register here.
London South East prides itself on its community spirit, and in order to keep the chat section problem free, we ask all members to follow these simple rules. In these rules, we refer to ourselves as "we", "us", "our". The user of the website is referred to as "you" and "your".
By posting on our share chat boards you are agreeing to the following:
The IP address of all posts is recorded to aid in enforcing these conditions. As a user you agree to any information you have entered being stored in a database. You agree that we have the right to remove, edit, move or close any topic or board at any time should we see fit. You agree that we have the right to remove any post without notice. You agree that we have the right to suspend your account without notice.
Please note some users may not behave properly and may post content that is misleading, untrue or offensive.
It is not possible for us to fully monitor all content all of the time but where we have actually received notice of any content that is potentially misleading, untrue, offensive, unlawful, infringes third party rights or is potentially in breach of these terms and conditions, then we will review such content, decide whether to remove it from this website and act accordingly.
Premium Members are members that have a premium subscription with London South East. You can subscribe here.
London South East does not endorse such members, and posts should not be construed as advice and represent the opinions of the authors, not those of London South East Ltd, or its affiliates.
Erroneous in your mind perhaps. But continue being this cheeky and well .... you know where we are headed.
Exception noted. Let's see if your negative bias changes or whether you continue to dredge up erroneous nonsense that has nothing to do with tlou and very little if any relevance in the grand scheme of things.
MFM - I take exception to your comment that my posts are forever negative. Tlou’s share price has not performed as shareholders had hoped over past 4 years (apart from occasional short spikes around good news). You don’t have to agree with this - but my posts were designed to provide some sort of balance on why this are not all rosy in the Botswana garden, given that the majority of posters on message boards are promoting their own long position in a stock.
As I have frequently said, I do not believe message board posters have the ability to dramatically move stock prices (GameStop being an obvious recent exception), but I do believe that underlying progress and truth will drive stock prices. And I again repeat I started posting my view that matters within Botswana were turning positive a few months back such that my view on Tlou was now generally positive.
Smith post, when relevant, simply defend TG and why things are so slow. MM posts only ever promote the opportunity with nudge nudge innuendo that Tlou will be the beneficiary/ winners in basically everything.
I don’t intend to keep defending my approach to posting or views contained in my post. Either you and others are clever enough to see them for what they are, or you are not.
In any event, we should surely have news on the PPA within the next month, so hopefully the conversation pivots to forward looking possibilities. We have all had enough of justification posts as to why progress has been pretty abysmal here.
Unless everyone on here is as stupid as you are making yourself look, you risk promoting my other half up the intelligence ladder! Just carry on proving that what I HAVE NOT SAID IS WRONG , there is a lot of it.
I have one ID on this board , and I am also TG in one looney's head , and I am that looney in yours! And you think I am mad?
If I don't filter your crap, you might turn out to be right!
I've said it before and I'll say it again, you two are like opposite sides of the same coin. Donk forever negative and Brad positive to the point of embarrassment.
Neither of you posts a coherent argument, listens to anyone or appears interested in anything but your own views and opinions. You certainly both dismiss all other opinions. It actually wouldn't surprise me if you were one and the same person. Totally schitzo and barking mad.
The voting for Dorset PCC worked out right for me.
GREEN candidate was 3rd so my CON second choice became my vote.
He won despite being behind on the second choice!
https://twitter.com/BCPCouncil/status/1390738805590724611/photo/1
Do people ever talk about something becoming a formality when it is already history.
And "will be" is hardly past tense either. No wonder you don't understand me MFM.
I really despair, we were talking about the importance of having a PPA, I demonstrate it is not important in one of two preferred bidders , and doubt whether it is important t the other , and you are not interested?
Why don't you know about funding for KE? It has been mentioned many times , and funding is the most crucial element of TLOU's future in your opinion, it is why you think we need a PPA, to get funding.
I give up, think whatever you want, I don't wanna know!
" they got that backing without the PPA , which is still pending like ours?"
Time for song!
https://youtu.be/mfwN0X8YnWo
MFM - you should care what KE have / don’t have since they are competitors of the company you are invested in. And while the market opportunity is potentially significant, that isn’t a good enough reason to ignore our opposition.
Smith - you are all over the place mate. Where do you get KE have backing from AfDB? That isn’t possible imo, since ALSF (part of AfDB) is advising Govt on the PPA negotiation. Less is more Mr Smith perhaps for you.
You might also like to reflect on following. Is your purpose here to critique and analyse Tlou in order to research and better understand the investment case it offers OR is your purpose now, having invested in Tlou yourself, spending your time reinforcing to yourself that your investment decision was correct?
Perhaps spend the weekend stepping back from the keyboard and thinking some of the basic criteria when making investments and whether or not the important aspects and assumptions have perhaps changed.
No Brad because KE don't have a PPA either! Where you get some of your conclusions from I don't know but they often miss the mark by quite some distance.
On your second point, I don't know what backing KE have and I don't care, I'm invested in TLOU and we don't have our funding or the 10MW PPA.
MFM, using your logic, then KE will be a better investment with a PPA for 97MW (a formality?) than TLOU with one for 10MW.
There is a pro and co to the conclusion!
They already have backing from the African Development Bank seems undeniable!
BUT, they got that backing without the PPA , which is still pending like ours?
Funding from outside Govt offices is still second choice imho - but TG is left with little other option - except in my book.
I kid myseld that TG, the Govt and yours truly all agree that a PPA is immaterial.
The Govt can definitely justify funding without a PPA for us, but they'd like one for themselves to ensure they see some power coming their way.
So I'll concede the importance of a PPA on that basis.
The share price hasn’t changed.
Maybe we would all be happier if it did. Shall we tell Tony and team ....
I cannot believe that any body with enough capital to finance TLOU, will think they are at risk of being left with power that they cannot sell. There is only one person in the world (with 3 or 4 identities) who'd suggest it a risk. And that risk is less likely than any of his other daft scenarios!
I am also dubious that anyone who has ever invested in TLOU did so in the belief that there is no demand for power in the region. So what on earth has changed???
"I've never thought a PPA matters"
Brad are you serious? Whilst I'll agree that it doesn't matter in the context that we already have a 2MW interim PPA, in every other respect I think it does matter!
Backers will be reassured by a 10MW full PPA, if we had that in the bag now they would surely be more likely than less likely to stump up the requisite funds to complete phase 1.
It's also a matter of trust and perception. Trust that the Botswana government is actually serious about CBM and not prone to the ridiculous delays we've had in the past and perception to the market that this board can get something over the line in a stated timeline for once.
Mr Smith, the PPA will almost certainly confirm the bid allocations. I.e. 2MW to 10MW.
There won't be a date forced on Tlou - it is not how these things work. Government will certainly ASK for a date by when we can generate into the grid and there may be penalties if we don't meet the date proposed. Dunno... we'll hear soon enough
Agreed
Whizzer, once the ppa is out of the bag it will no longer be in the bag so the wording is difficult.
As to that ppa, what we are expecting?
Preferred bidder allocations after re-consideration?
The price per unit they'll receive when they eventually deliver?
When that is?
Anything else?
Imho, none of them are likely. Until there are tx lines in situ and working , delivery is impossible , when is unknown but hopefully our contractors can produce accurate estimates or guarantees.
We then have a target , for first supply. An early date will favour 2MW, but a protracted date is likely to make 10MW possible. Those options will have a bearing of price of that supply.
Who knows what imported fuel will cost at that time, so how do they set a price for our unknown supply?
We don't know what KE are reporting to the Govt , but , unless they drop out, imho there is no reason to change 97MW and 10MW/2MW which all 3 parties seem content with?
I've never thought a PPA matters, once a power supply is deliverable I think we could auction it to the highest bidder! Gentleman Tony would almost surely have Botswana on a list of one IF THEY ENTER INTO A FUNDING AGREEMENT otherwise it is open house!
PPA is tantalisingly close
Merely not nearly.
If the ppa is in the bag, surely the company have to rns that fact!
Or is there another delay we don’t know about, or is it nearly awaiting a signature?