The next focusIR Investor Webinar takes places on 14th May with guest speakers from WS Blue Whale Growth Fund, Taseko Mines, Kavango Resources and CQS Natural Resources fund. Please register here.
London South East prides itself on its community spirit, and in order to keep the chat section problem free, we ask all members to follow these simple rules. In these rules, we refer to ourselves as "we", "us", "our". The user of the website is referred to as "you" and "your".
By posting on our share chat boards you are agreeing to the following:
The IP address of all posts is recorded to aid in enforcing these conditions. As a user you agree to any information you have entered being stored in a database. You agree that we have the right to remove, edit, move or close any topic or board at any time should we see fit. You agree that we have the right to remove any post without notice. You agree that we have the right to suspend your account without notice.
Please note some users may not behave properly and may post content that is misleading, untrue or offensive.
It is not possible for us to fully monitor all content all of the time but where we have actually received notice of any content that is potentially misleading, untrue, offensive, unlawful, infringes third party rights or is potentially in breach of these terms and conditions, then we will review such content, decide whether to remove it from this website and act accordingly.
Premium Members are members that have a premium subscription with London South East. You can subscribe here.
London South East does not endorse such members, and posts should not be construed as advice and represent the opinions of the authors, not those of London South East Ltd, or its affiliates.
TB , Donkey on ADVFN is mrmoagi on here.
No doubt he'll comment if he can remember how he formed his opinion .
I don't know Donkey Brad but I think he's possibly correct.
If the TL's were to be an asset of TLOU's then we may well have started this SOW already.
Because we haven't then it indicates it could well be a Build and Transfer contract and TLOU need to be certain they recoup the TL Scope outlay plus profits, it would be foolish to start anything without getting this detailed and rubber stamped legally before doing so.
TB, several years back on ADVFN, Donkey claimed exactly that.
The tx lines would be adopted by BPC and then the price of the power supplied would include compensation to TLOU for the costs of producing the TxLs.
I had no reason to disbelieve him but as we know he rarely tells the whole story or a link to the source of his claim, where we'd get the whole story.
As to the PPA's, I fail to see how either can be completed until estimated dates are possible. A PPA with "tba" against every date just seems meaningless to me! And time is money, so how do they agree on unknown prices?
Thanks for the replies fellas, I too haven't a clue. I do know that the BG have asked for negotiations to be kept confidential as you'd expect.
Let me pose this question;
does anyone think the TL's could be working on a Build and Transfer model..?
That would certainly increase the detail to work through. Or do we think that the TL's will be a TLOU asset..?
Maybe TLOU are building the TL's, handing them over to the BPC and then recouping the costs on the power sold once connected.
Py , I guess iTLOU want to be paid for what goes onto the wires at Lesedi , and BPC want to pay for what is received at Serowe?
https://www.indexmundi.com/facts/indicators/EG.ELC.LOSS.ZS/rankings
suggests Botswana were losing 11.02% in 2014 - 68th of 138 countries in their efficiency table.
Togo lost 71% ,and Singapore only 2.03% at the other extreme. UK figure was 8.35%
Singapore has a total land area of 724.2 square kilometres (279.6 sq mi).
Botswana occupies an area of 581,730 square kilometres (224,610 sq mi), of which 566,730 km 2 (218,820 sq mi) are land.
The distance is clearly significant, as you'd expect! I saw 0.01% per KM mentioned elsewhere , and also 0.37% per KM so 10% to 37% for 100KM? 11.02% in 2020's looks to be in the right ball park.
TB - When I asked Tlou about the delays with getting the 2MW PPA finalised, the reasons given were fairly vague but one example of things that needed to be sorted out was on the metering of the electricity. Tlou would meter the supply and so would the BPC, and agreement had to be reached on how to deal with a discrepancy. Presumably that particular issue was dealt with as the 2MW was signed, so as to what is holding up the 10MW award, no, scoobyless here too.
ALSF are all about capacity building across institutions and Governments. So they will be helping staff in the various Ministry and Govt departments to understand the negotiation of a PPA process. Most likely none of the staff have much of a clue on any of this, so yes I believe this is the reason for slow progress on the PPA.
I remember the original tender was for gas-to-power supply for a 30 year term, so quite how they are going to agree pricing is beyond my knowledge of these matters.
But I will bring up again a question or concern I have long held here - I just don’t see how Tlou can cover costs (let alone make a decent profit) on such a small power generation amount which has to supply into the grid for 30 years. So maybe they are getting stuck on negotiations around 2mw, or is it 10MW, or is it 2mw increasing to 10mw by a certain period of time. And maybe they are trying to bring in more mw to the future mix. And then there is the price around all that .....
Basically I don’t have a scooby.
If i remember correctly OB appeared to have a sound knowledge of Bots PPA processes and the fact that approval of the PPA would be needed by a number of departments.
Do you think this is the reason for the pace of progress mrmoagi...?
Do you think that negotiations are still ongoing with the figures..?
TLOU have surely put values into a cost model to determine what is acceptible.
OB, apologies in advance if there were other pointers you made regarding the PPA.
I would refer you to posts previously by OldBailie. I hope he comes back and chats again here soon. One of the few posters that had something intelligent to add.
Going back to my 16:18 post yesterday regarding my belief that the PPA is far more complex than I thought.
Does anyone agree and if so has anyone got any thoughts on this..?
preferably without just saying TLOU and/or the BG/BPC are useless..?