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I should have got out of bed and washed my face for sure!
It was panic, brought on by Chris Fraser on SXX - selling up there was really painful - years of belief carpped on so my biggest hope for getting my money back was gone! Having 2 ways back felt OK but I really thought my last chance was gone this a.m..
I think everyone's fears that no news was bad news made this RNS relevant than it actually is.
Living alone isn't great, my missus would have woken me earlier :O)
I have just taken out a Roast Chicken dinner from the freezer, looked at the cooking instructions and it said NOT SUITABLE FOR FREEZING and I bought 3 of them! This is a memorable day ok!
Thanks for replying My1 , Whizz and Olda.
It sounds like panic selling to me Brad. I try to avoid emotional investment decisions. They're still targeting Q1 for PPA and project financing. I don't think they would have left those targets unchanged if they weren't confident of achieving them especially given the challenges they've had with the flow rates and with missing all three targets last year. If those current forecasts change I'll reassess.
I’ve sold half my holding brad, it would have all gone if it were not for the fact I saw minor post that tg is doing an interview later this week. If I don’t like what I hear I’m all out. I waited to sell today as I thought I might catch a bit of a bounce, that didn’t go so well. Ars will be a great place for your cash and I hope you do well. I know we had our moments in tlou but I never hold a grudge and wish you all the best with your investments. We are after all here to earn a bit of extra cash. Well hopefully.
My1, I woke late this morning , checked my IG balance and saw it was down considerably more than ususal.
Then I saw the AIM price of TLOU whilst the ASX price looked fine and immediately twigged there must have a 7am RNS.
Full of trepidation. fearing the worst, I then read
"Since the initial rate announcement, gas flow rates have continued to fluctuate both up and down"
Fluctuation indicates up and down, we knew intermittent flows were excellent so that word down couple with initial rates struck me as flows were less than 20 mcfd! And I was expecting to hear over 100! My fears worsened.
The next paragraph then said
"The Company is operating in a region where commercial CBM had not been produced before so there is no comparable data from this operating environment regarding how long it may take, or if it is even possible, for a commercial gas flow to be achieved. "
"or if it is even possible etc" and I was shot!
Next I saw Whizzer's post and he'd sold up!
I posted my 10:11 post and went back to IG portfolio to see the price had dropped further.
TLOU was my hope to get back somewhere between £100k and £200k losses on the stock exchange and I was facing losing even more. I sold my 48.5k AIM shares on IG but I have lots more on ASX which I couldn't get to.
Went to my X-O account and the price had dropped again so it confirmed how I was feeling and I dumped my FTSE holding of near 500k shares by 10:18
Apart from a grand into ARS my money is intact and available if I decide I was too hasty, which upon studying the November and January RNS wording is a possibility. I still have near 400k on ASX at 8.6c until 11pm - I wonder how that is going to be.
Not much new today tbh. We didn't expect much change or it would have been rns'ed previously. The wording worried a few but when you dissect it they are really just factual statements. It's always been a bit of a gamble but we know that! We're here because if they do pull it off the rewards will be enormous. Highlighting that the flow rates are up and down and somewhat erratic is (imho) the companies way of saying that's why we can't really update on the flow rates because they're all over the shop but it is encouraging that they say much higher rates have been achieved. The key is consistency and that can only be achieved with time. The worry now is are two wells enough? I would suggest yes or they surely wouldn't have committed to drilling Mamba, so water levels must be coming down but it's obviously not something that can be rushed. The interim PPA is a pleasant positive surprise and one that definitely adds to my confidence levels. Biggest surprise of the day (other than the share price reaction) was Brad selling his AIM holding. Quite frankly Brad you've lost nearly all remaining credibility with that move in my eyes. After espousing your respect and seemingly untold admiration for TG over many many months, to sell up on one RNS that basically just told us what we already knew, seemed an over-reaction to me and one I think you may go on to regret, we shall see... I remain fully invested.
ps. I rode ARS from below 1p up to over 14p and eventually sold at 9p. Their price today is very cheap for the size of assets they have IF, as with so many companies, they can get a JV or funding of some sort to get it out of the ground.