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lol Truth, went out for a bike ride yesterday, didn't check my phone for the weather forecast, it looked nice and sunny, then half way round it tipped down, I got drenched, my own fault. Been used to too many hot sunny days of late.
Mine's a Guinness !
Will sign off now - beers with mates tonight.
Enjoy your evening.
G
Truth - My position here has remained constant - it's a share i trade and top slice, collecting "free shares" on the way. I know you know this, as I've mentioned it to you many times in our previous posts, since you joined the fun here in Aug 2019. I don't recommend it as a buy, or a hold or a sell, that's for each PI to decide for themselves.
So like you - no real risk to me holding here. Yes shares I collected north of a £1, are less in value now, but i'm sure you'll appreciate you don't pick up many shares top slicing for 3 - 5% on a trade. I'm sure there are many PI's with much larger holdings than me. ( many if not most under water regrettably ).
However I've been able to collect many more " free shares" since the June placing, mainly due to the lower SP. I've found it much easier to collect shares at these lower levels, as clearly you get more shares on a decent turn if the day trade is a similar size in value terms to past trades.
This one is only a hobby - and I don't place value on my holding. ( whilst accepting of course that it does have value ).
It's one to play with whilst holding a main balanced portfoilio.
Hell mate where's the fun in bb's like ULVR / RB / DGE and the like lol.
I enjoy the debate, and hope you'll agree I don't make SP predictions, I don't suggest low ball buy in targets, I just make trades, on a blue days or where I can see a likely small upturn in the SP - pretty much from any level. I also remind some people who post here, the position as detailed by the BOD through rns. I'll also throw in any relevant media items.
Good to note you'll listen to the Presentation.
Don't get your comment regarding the "availability of debt finance" there was a RNS advising the new updated RCF's at £120M and the clearance of the past O/D,from the placing funds a condition of the raise in June. Hey ho.
G
Truth - you never fail to disappoint,.
We will have - yet again agree to disagree on the benefits of the warehousing development to STOB.
It's an extremely small part of the STOB portfolio, though please don't miss any opportunity to cast a negative spin on our merry little board.
I know for certain you'll never buy in my friend - how could you possibly, hold shares here and comment on this bb. Any positive comment you may then have to make would stick in your throat. lol
gla
G
Love the chat on Carlisle - think you are both finding some common ground, on that one. you make some good points Stockraiser, and though I've not been up to that neck of the woods, I do understand the added benefits that STOB gained from developing the "non Airport" surrounding acres.
It is important as a topic for those living locally, and I know for a some reason, it seems to get your goat a little Truth, and we've had chats about it on here before.
Hope you'll take this in the spirit its intended, but to me living in the South and with no knowledge of your region, I have to say to me it's not going to be key issue to STOB's future prospects, that said I'd suggest it is important to your region, and I wish it the very best, who with a positive outlook wouldn't.
gla
G
Would the military be interested? I don't believe it will end up a folly - too many other uses, especially now it has been updated.
https://www.newsandstar.co.uk/news/17462522.chinooks-apache-helicopters-take-skies-carlisle-lake-district-airport-raf-spadeadam/
The Dutch air force is training 250 troops at RAF Spadeadam, near Brampton.
It described the Cumbrian base as a "high-quality" training ground due to its challenging terrain and varied range of radar threats.
Lieutenant Colonel Niels van den Berg said: "We are happy to be back at Carlisle Lake District Airport and at RAF Spadeadam.
"Carlisle Lake District Airport is five minutes flying from the Spadeadam Range and that means that we can train very efficiently.
"The airport provides us with almost all necessary conditions such as fuel, fire brigade, food and air traffic control.
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The viability of the airport was not just down to seat sales, but also revenue from the neighbouring Eddie Stobart freight business, general aviation and its use by military organisations for maneouvres.
She said: “The success or not of this airport will not be solely dependent on the number of people who get on the planes,” she said.
The Dutch airforce used the airport earlier this year and Ms Willard is keen to see them and other airforces use the runways more.
She said: “I genuinely hope so. That is a really interesting market. I’m working with government to see if this is a market not just for us but regional airports UK plc.”
Councillor Gareth Ellis, deputy leader of Carlisle City Council said: "It's a blow for the area and the airport, but we need to wait and see if another outfit is willing to give it a try.
"If capacity grows there is no reason why another operator can't take it over."
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Capacity will eventually return and grow, there's no doubt about it ;-)
GLA SR
Truth - agree have a lot of time for the present board.
Just for balance the Energy Division should be moving back towards full delivery month on month. Again we'll have to wait till the interims for more info.
I'll stick with the rns info re the finances and cashflow. As at 31/ 08 / 2020 the group had pretty much all of its £120M banking facilities available to it.
With no div costs and limited planned capex for this year, together with the figures provided by the BOD for the monthly costs of running Southend on a worse case through to next spring, STOB are not under any financial pressure at.this present time.
Again unless updated to the downside bythe BOD during the Investor Presentation let's stick to the published cashflow projections. Unless you have info to hand to the contrary.
Clearly we all want to see planes flying at previous levels, sooner rather than later. 2020 has been pretty much a write off. Where we'll be at the beginning of March 2020, is relevant, the science and Govts have the autumn and winter to resolve matters.
G
I mentioned a few weeks ago that most employees at Carlisle Airport had been made redundant, not furloughed (not crack but fact)- wonder why?
Anyhow, I've been topping up over the last week, in expectation of a rise in the sp in the next couple of weeks.
GLA SR
Hi Truth - so just "Cumbrian Chat"
Is that anything printed in the press, or anything online where you can post a link ?
Or perhaps are you close to anyone working at STOB with any inside info ?
Or is it general chat with your friends - got to say STOB is not one of our topics of conversations when l'm out with my mates - clearly we've missing out on some riveting chit chat.
Or perhaps just your own personal view.
Hey don't get me wrong, I don't mind personal speculation from those on the sidelines, provided it's clear that it's speculation, these bb's are open to all.
I see it's kicking off on a number of bb's today - check out RYA / CINE / SHI.
Let's keep it fair and friendly here. all views are welcomed, those supported by facts even more so, links are very helpful my friend.
Not long to wait till the "Investor Presentation" - then we can pick through the info presented.
Again I'm not blind to the impact of Covid 19 on the Aviation Sector. It is a challenging time, whilst we wait for a vaccine and robust testing processes.
I still venture to suggest, that the Energy Division is fully back up and running and STOB has approaching £120M headroom within its banking facilities.
G
Investor Presentation.
Truth will you tune in - or will you stick with your " Cumbrian Chat"
Hey mate, lets see what the BOD says, then we can go back to speculation, for the months and years to come.
Have a great day, could be a little red across the board in the UK early doors today.
G
Truth - have you any links to any official info regarding your latest comment ? That would be helpful, 'm sure your not the kind of guy to spread unfounded rumour.
The only info from the BOD by rns is that they wish to monitise the Energy Division over a period of 18 - 24 months. That could be a sale or a partial buy in.
The Bod have also confirmed they will look to sell non core assets, in timely fashion.
We have also had the news that there are several parties looking at the purchase of Stobart Air, though matters are said to be in early stages.
We know STOB received an offer for a partial buy in to Southend early in the year, before Covid 19 impacted on the Aviation sector
I'll remind you and Moni once again STOB, raised funds in June, and cleared all bank debts, and at the same time arranged new increased banking facilities of £120M.
The BOD also detailed the monthly cash costs of maintaining Southend Airport on a worse case position of no passenger flights.
All this info is provided in a number of rns. Though if your Cumbrian chat has more to add send us the link.
Or you could check out the "Investor Presentation" announced this morning, and get an update from the BOD.
As i see it STOB have access to £120M of Borrowing headroom. The Energy Division is coming back up to pace, and you I and Moni will be "shooting the breeze" for some considerable time to come.
Where the sp goes, in the short term is up for debate, these are challenging times, for many businesses in many sectors.
G
Hi Moni - you didn't put in a prediction, for the cash position as at 31/08/2020.
I'll go first - prob cash neutral, bank account sitting at £1m ish either way, so just the £120M agreed RCF's for STOB to plough through over the coming months and years.
Be good to lose Stobart Air, and for info on the Energy Division, in November, we have already been given the cashflow projections on Southend based on worse case. I've mentioned those to you a number of times, guess that slipped your mind.
So as I say many more months and probably years for us to "shoot the breeze" here.
Have a great eve.
gla
G
Well the cash position will depend on how much the latest Covid rules and quarantine rules for holiday makers affect STOB's income from Southend etc....who knows cash burn may be unsustainable if income isn't there? ... Gerry you have to admit I have been consistent with my long held belief that this was heading South of 20p despite all of the mini rally's and false hopes when this was trading at 150p last year...I think Stob squandered too much cash in divi's when income streams had not been proven as sustainable. It would appear previous BOD emptied the coffers and then scarpered before the roof fell in.......a perfect storm has engulfed STOB, but I did say that I might consider pressing the buy button at 20p many weeks ago, but that depended on a clear picture on Covid 19 and a pick up in aviation travel etc, unfortunately Covid 19 has taken a sudden turn for the worse in the past few weeks and the Government is now in full panic mode it would appear? 0 to 5 p is my optimistic view from here unless a Covid 19 miracle occurs in the next few months, i.e a fully validated global vaccine supply, but don't see that happening before the end of next year at the earliest imho.....Maybe shareholders will stump up more cash if required but at what price?
Moni - just realised you may have been asking me to comment on STOB, and not on your "non buy in" lol.
Like many shares, there are the opposing pulls of :
Quarantines / restrictions / Covid fears V +VE Vaccine expectations or news / Stimulus Expectations.
As Truth says - no second guessing the future from me.
Next stop the interims at the end of Nov.
Moni & Truth, any predictions for STOB's cash position, as at the half year ( 30th August ), or it's total headroom borrowing position a that time.
Think we'll be "chewing the fat" here for many months or years to come.
G
Moni - so you are back to a 0 - 5p buy in price.
Truth - no new "buy in price" offered, that's a shame, at least Moni is still playing the game lol.
We live in interesting times, and these BB's are full of debate ( not all of it polite ). You've only got to take a look around the following sectors:
Banking - LLOY in particular - what a game it is over there, a real bun fight, lmost on a daily basis.
OIL - even BP. an RDSB where the bickering continues, which is nothing to TLW
Insurance - where we get the AV. v LGEN match up
House Builders, its fun over there on red days
Retailers - emm
CINE - now that a great BB is it not.
Then let's look at Aviation :
Over on RYA sage and the other holders have to deal with UD and RF68 and on EZJ they have A Smithy's views to deal with a on daily basis. ( Moni - you'll remember A Smithy from your time on FLYB ).
Hey Moni and Truth, all in all I consider myself really fortunate, that "we three" are here to chit chat on little old STOB, things could be far worse, looking at other BBs.
Keep posting
G
Hi Moni & Truth - now therein lies the problem when throwing out a "low ball buy in target" when the sp hits your price you have to back out. Now to be honest you have each confirmed yet again, my expectation that both of you are extremely unlikely to ever buy in here.
With a lack of news until the interims in Nov. ( save perhaps for the possible sale of Stobart Air ), and the immediate challenges facing the Aviation Sector, there was always the chance that, the SP would drift downwards.
I wonder if either of you fooled, anyone else looking in here, either, holders, or those on the sidelines, that you were sincere, lol. Perhaps, someone could post and let us know.
BTW did you know there have only been 17 posters apart from ourselves on here during Aug and Sept.
It's pretty much us three "shooting the Breeze" lol.
G
lol
We'll further to my post on Sept 11th (bad omen day)..the latest dire predictions for Covid 19 in the UK and globally going out of control, I have decided that 20p target buy in was overly optimistic as the outlook for airline related stocks is also now looking dire again, therefore won't be pressing the buy button at 20p as previously thought about, my latest view is this has potential to go much lower imho and think 0 to 5p could be on the cards?...what's your thoughts Gerry/Truth?????
We'll further to my post on Sept 11th (bad omen day)..the latest dire predictions for Covid 19 in the UK and globally going out of control, I have decided that 20p target buy in was overly optimistic as the outlook for airline related stocks is also now looking dire again, therefore won't be pressing the buy button at 20p as previously thought about, my latest view is this has potential to go much lower imho and think 0 to 5p could be on the cards?...what's your thoughts Gerry/Truth?????
Truth - you have done well over on SCE, am guessing you've not put all your pension eggs in the one basket, sure you haven't.
I was lucky to retire early at 55, some 5.5 years ago. Building a pension pot I know is less easy nowadays than it was for me, I just had to work for a large Company with a final salary pension scheme.
I'm guessing looking at today's annuity rates, someone looking to retire at 60, and planning to live in retirement, for say 30 more years, would prob. need to build up a pension pot of say at least( £500K ). Where the state pension will kick in and what it will be worth is open to question.
If SCE were to 5 bag from here, a holding of 250,000 shares would do the trick, on value, though I guess somewhere down the line, it would only be prudent to de risk take some profits and diversify into other holdings.
G
Hi Truth - Looking good for SCE - know you got in early over there. What's your strategy, are you looking to bank some profits, and perhaps top slice, or are you planning on holding for the longer term ?
I've just settled down, for the afternoon, been painting the decking in the back garden, and baking in the sun ! it's a bit like the Forth Bridge !
Going to look in on the Parliament channel - the second reading of the "UK Internal Market Bill" could be a bit of a bun fight.
G
Looks like funds are loading up at these cheap discount prices. Recent Funds subscribed $100m for 40.0 this is now nearly half price! Long-term hold and very strong buy for me.
You too truth.
Emm, just seen that buy show up at 17.08 - 695,310 shares @ 23.80p - value of trade - £165.48k.
G
Another of the recent "U shaped" trading days for STOB, with the SP on the slide in the morning only to recover later in the day.
Small value sales, on the drop,in the morning, then a number of larger "off book" buys showing later.
Wouldn't be a surprise to see a further TR1 pop up some time next week.
gla
G
Moni & Truth - be great to have you two on board, so lets hope you both get your buy in prices.
Agree Moni - we are looking at a difficult Autumn and Winter in terms of social distancing. Sure I've mentioned here that I've postponed both my June and Sept 2020 holidays and moved them onto the same times next year.
The world needs a vaccine, though travel and other sectors may find a partial solution, by way of a quick Covid testing, system, some of which are being trialled. I'd love to be able to watch alive footie match again sometime soon !
Next update will prob be the half year figures to the end of Aug 20, which won't really give much additional info, we could do with some management figures for Sept and Oct, when they are released in Nov, particularly on the Energy Division.
At the same time the BOD could confirm that STOB is operating in line with the cash flow projections previously given.
The sale of Stobart Air would be handy.
We've been through recent period of low trading volumes, and in addition, we are seeing many many small sales going through, dozens and dozens a day under £1k. Looks like PI's selling ( perhaps some that bought around the placing price ). On the other side Directors and Institutions have bought in, perhaps, looking at STOB for the longer term.
gla
G