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guess not too long for us to claim the blue ;) every little blue counts ++
Expecting a re test of the low yesterday at todays close and it is Friday..
...ummm we will see
WGR, thanks for the advice... I am just having some fun here as being young... ok.. sort of ;)
But honestly, the chance of another 30% drop is highly unlikely if you have a look at last 20yrs trading history... if that's really the case I will be bookmarking this ftse100 share as one of my other AIM shares...
GLA, let's see some blue here
World go round
We already had the plumet..time for a bit of ups before th inevitable downsi .... !!!!
Not blood in the streets price yet...that is to come...but for now ....up up we go .......... hey ho !!!
yup the sp should not drop more than 227(finger crossed)... and I will sell if sp reach 221.5
I am very interested in tommorows start number... who vere said trading shares
" That it was the hardest way to make easy money" was correct.
Hope it works out for you and me...but if we falls below 227 I will sell and wait...
I bought 15k already... funny enough the day you said it's going to drop to 227 LoL which pretty much is the 5yr low, only few % underwater... it's ok
Just buy now ..imo
I call the turn about 5p before..
which is?
It occurs to me that now is a perfect time to rally certain beaten up stocks for the April Fools Isa buyer who can not wait to enter the market at the wronhg time.
I have bought sbry at 228 the low as I said it would be was 227.10
I have a firm sell point in mind...
Yes I feel today is the day especially with M&S slashing their dividend to pay Ocado.
Well a few days ago I said the buy price would be 227 and by todays close I would expect to buy at that or very close...to it depending on the spread...
i ahve a feeling today is the day..
loganair,
Good research there !
With that $1.2 trillion of undeployed capital its a shame none of it wanted to buy Flybe for a just few pence a share !
Cutthroat competition and Brexit risks are likely to deter most buyout firms from pursuing Asda unless they can get it for an attractive price, according to advisers who have pitched the deal.
While buyout firms sit on about $1.2 trillion of undeployed capital and are keen to do deals, financiers have been concerned about providing loans to U.K. businesses and it has become more difficult to get sterling-denominated debt to finance acquisitions of British assets, people familiar with the matter said last month.
Buyout firms have previously run the ruler over U.K. supermarket chains. In 2007, Sainsbury fended off approaches led by CVC Capital Partners and the Qatar Investment Authority. Sky News reported that they teamed up on another proposal in 2016 that was abandoned after the grocer moved to buy Home Retail Group Plc.
CVC is not currently looking at the grocer as a potential takeover target, people familiar with the firm’s thinking said. A representative for CVC declined to comment.
Auson , yes the Qatari investment fund currently holds 22% of Sainsburys and has done for many years, they did come close to putting in a bid for the company several years ago gla
loganair,
As far as I knew private equity and hedgefunds are behind Amazon, The internet of things and food delivery not big supermarkets or retail. So can't see any interest in ASDA from them. Sainsburrys however might have some interested buyers, didn't Qatar have a stake here at one point ?
Asda would be an affordable to a private equity firm, if large, bite for a financial sponsor. In the absence of another bidder, the valuation might fall to, say, 6 billion pounds. Then assume that half the deal could be funded in debt. If Walmart kept a minority stake, the equity the buyout firm would need to put up could be as little as 1.5 billion pounds.
This could prove tempting – if a buyout firm could satisfy itself that getting out of the investment would be as easy as getting in. With antitrust regulators likely to block a sale to another grocer, the exit would have to be through an initial public offering.
To generate an internal rate of return of roughly 15 percent over five years would require the buyout firm to grow the equity value to 6 billion pounds. Assume debt stayed steady as spare cash was reinvested in the business (it needs it). Asda would then have to attain an enterprise value of 9 billion pounds to deliver the desired gains.
Asda's margins are already wide. So the strategy would have to focus on getting sales up. CEO Roger Burnley has delivered the beginnings of a turnaround, growing sales by 2.6 percent in 2017. That would need to be sustained over the lifetime of the investment. The company would need to poach customers from big grocers Sainsbury and Tesco Plc, most likely by undercutting them on price, and from discounters Aldi and Lidl by convincing them to pay a little more for the convenience of a full range.
Sure, it would still be tough to get an Asda deal past any private equity firm’s investment committee. But a buyout wouldn’t be Walmart’s only option. It could combine Asda with another retailer, such as B&M European Value Retail SA – both serve the same price-conscious shoppers.
So at least Walmart has options. That isn’t the case with Sainsbury. CEO Mike Coupe could try to strike a deal with Wm Morrison Supermarkets Plc instead of Asda – but that could face similar regulatory constraints. Or he could stick with a standalone strategy. But that won't generate anything like the value promised by the Asda tie-up. What’s more, the company’s performance has recently deteriorated. A private equity bid for the supermarket might be possible, but it would be less than straightforward.
With the Asda deal falling apart at the checkout, Sainsbury will be left with the advice of one of its own marketing slogans: love your left overs.
Personal note - If Sainsburys tried to join with Morrison I do not think they would have the same difficulty as with the Asda deal as any tie up with Morrison would give the combined group around 1.5% less market share then Tesco currently have.
So far Coupe has had more failures than successes as he failed with setting up Netto and failed again when trying to take over Nisa which went to the Coop.
tomposh101, ( just how posh are you ? )
Whch consumer ranking ASDA worse than SBRY what a surprise
Asda achieved the lowest score of 56% for in-store shopping and 65% for online shopping after managing just one star for the quality of own-brand items and two stars for fresh produce.
Sainsbury's achieved 63% for its in-store offer and 69% for online shopping, but customers gave it only two stars for value for money in both categories.
I bought 25,000 shares at 225p and sold at 325p as at the time the deal stank. Today, I've bought 5,000 because it's a good dividend payer even at 10p. If the merger happens it'll quickly rebound not that I want it too.
Auson - I suspect Mike Coupe knows that selling off 400 stores (likely to be the larger ones) would destroy all shareholder value left in the deal as there is only really one buyer - Morrisons. Tesco would not be able to buy stores for competition reasons and the stores would be too big for all other competitors Waitrose, Iceland, Co-Op, Aldi, Lidl. To make matters worse the CMA indicated that all the stores would have to be sold to one buyer who already had an shop and online presence! Hence Morrisons could name their price.
I at least hope SBRY was advised that some store sell off's would be required, but the scale of the sales, the reliance on Morrisons to be a willing buyer and the CMA stating that this may still not be enough means that the deal is IMHO dead. SBRY has gone into a mixture between combative and sulky mode. However, this won't help, the CMA is now never going to row back enough to make the deal palatable.
I agree with the rebound. Way over done.
PYUECK,
I think you are spot on with your analysis. My thoughts just as a shopper does SBRY really compete with ASDA ? For me I find SBRY has some good quality food and nice offerings I've been into ASDA a few times and left after buying nothing. If they do think they are in direct competition this needs to stop. Its almost as daft as when the TSCO CEO said he is going to compete with ALDI and LIDL.. good luck with that pal completely different business model !
Do you have any idea why SBRY have decided to take on the CMA and not work with them agreeing to sell stores etc as per their concerns ?
It will rebound within days. Initial reaction was too dramatic. Anticipate a 10% plus rebound.
My view on the deal is that the CMA were annoyed by the difference between what the investors thought were the drivers for the merger and what Mr Coupe said were the reasons. Effectively the CMA said that the reasons given by Sainsburys for the merger were moonshine and not the real drivers for the move.
Sainsbury's said that the merger would lower prices by 10%. Well the only way they could do this is by some efficiencies in distribution, head office costs and distribution. But the only way they could get here really was to destroy suppliers or reduce quality. I think the CMA just didn't buy this line of argument as to justify the takeover SBRY would at the same time have to increase margins. With ASDA and SBRY regularly competing on prices with price matches etc., it's hard to see that removing one of the big four from the market would not allow SBRY (and TSCO and MRW) to take it's foot off promotions.
I think Mike Coupe has been badly served by his advisers. The CMA was historically a pretty slow but accommodating beast. They totally misread the Tesco takeover of Booker as a green light for supermarket consolidation. They were totally wrong.
The deal is totally dead, Mike Coupe's reputation in shreds and shareholders licking their wounds. Personally I never thought the deal was a good one for SBRY shareholders with SBRY somehow paying 2bn and Walmart getting 42% of combined business. However the deal would have taken SBRY from a TSCO wannabe to head to head with it.
What options does SBRY have now. Well I would say don't panic, the business I think has taken it's eye off the ball a bit, focus on improving the existing business and properly integrating Argos. Then see what opportunities emerge, if the management thinks that SBRY doesn't have the scale it needs then why not just build more stores? The reason why they won't do this is probably the elephant in the room reason they wanted the ASDA deal...they wanted to grow and take out a competitor which in the supermarket sector is infinitely better than growing floorspace and your competitors still being the same size.
Personally I think Coupe would be well placed to speak to Walmart and mutually agree to call the thing off now. A slow painful death of the deal won't help either him or the shareprice. As a shareholder, even if the deal can be pushed through with a mountain full of mitigations, namely selling off stores at knock down prices, this isn't an option I would favour. What is the point in losing 42% equity and £2bn in cash to then sell off half of what you have bought at top price for a knocked down price. It's time to walk and focus on existing business.