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Increasing awareness and understanding of what investments companies (such as GS) are doing in a company is (imo) interesting.
Just making observations, that may be of relevance in future investments.
Rgds Sft
The level of shorts have no relevance now, and in any ev ent cant be explained with any certainty. Best ignored since they are not a reflection of any fundamental weakness in sp. All will be clear come 1 April
Melqart increased % short on 26th. After GS had added on the 25th.
Not sure how today's reduction (Todays GS related RNS) fits, is it related to loaning out to Mel?
Rgds Sft
Rgds Sft
Very true bladesman, but my thoughts are PMO have undergone all sorts, of issues that were compounded by over reaching with Solan, the revenue stream reducing (1st PoO crash) then raising credit, bonds and debt getting sold on and then ARCM, the 2nd PoO collapse, the affects and consequences present ideal opportunity to learn.
Hence its really good to have this sort of discussion and getting some knowledgeable feedback. PMO issues must be fully encompassing what many companies go through in part or quite similarly the whole?
Rgds Sft
Ps that fact we might not loose are shirts also helps.
Personally speaking, I just look.forward to when we can forget about the shorts and all.these shenanigans. Too complicated for me. Roll on 1 April, I cant wait to get back to basics and uncomplicated investing
Pearls - good to see you having appreciative conversation on this bb. I was tempted to chip in to the flak you were being subjected to over on SGI, but decided that it was pointless trying to communicate with argumentative bullies. Hats off to you for how you handle these coconuts!
Looking forward to rapid growth with PMO..
GLA
Because if the 22nd Feb is not set there I am reading it that a build on the short position could continue until:
RNS 22nd and 23rd
" The Restructuring Plans remain subject to approval by the Scottish Court of Session with the sanction hearing currently scheduled to commence on 19 March 2021....."
Rgds Sft
Hi Pearls, thank you.
I did not know that re 22nd Feb. Is this detailed in the prospectus?
So we should not expect to see any further rise /increase in short positions there after?
From Short tracker
https://shorttracker.co.uk/company/GB00B43G0577/
23 Feb entry but no change, not sure why this entry was recorded? Any thoughts?
Melqart Asset Management (UK) Ltd
Short position 3.14% date 23 Feb 2021
Melqart Asset Management (UK) Ltd
Short position 3.14% 19 Feb 2021
Melqart Asset Management (UK) Ltd
Short position 3.03% 17 Feb 2021
So GS recent (latest RNS) buy could now not be related to loaning out?
Rgds Sft
There is a significant shift in money away from fashionable tech stocks that are way over valued, into more value stocks like commodities which are very undervalued. Look at Rio recently paying a record dividend. Smart money now moving into commodities and oil included despite its environmental reputation. mr buffet has called it right with his billions invested in Chevron. I think its boom time for us invested in HE. At 28 p, soooooo cheap. 40p on the cards....
Again, there is a misunderstanding here. Current short positions held by bondholders and creditors prior to 22nd February and subject to the agreement of 22nd February can close their short position at any time from 22nd February and convert them into shares immediately, but I would guess that all those positions are basically now frozen and awaiting conversion into shares up to 1st April. You will note that originally the date for the new shares to commence trading was 29th March, but clearly the size and complexity of the various conversions is such that they needed a couple more days to deal with everyone. Only other short positions being closed will lead to the shares now rising but I believe there are actually some still out there.
One thing I do know is the VIX is going through the roof, the dollar has ticked up, equities are down and guess what... Oil is staying put with even a tick up in wti...
Maybe investors from other sectors will wake up and rush to get into oil based instruments like PMO...
I agree Pearls... this doesn't seem to add up....
I understand the argument that short positions being covered by what ARCM (although locked in) and others will receive and may not lead to a short squeeze up until after April 1st.
However if the rising share price is making them money then why wouldn't they help to boost it? They can always sell before April 1st. It is over a month away?!
Steve, that’s wrong. The amount of short positions held by creditors was fixed on 22nd February for conversion purposes. Anyone newly shorting after that is throwing money down the drain as those new short positions would be outside the prospectus and agreement with creditors of 22nd February. Equally anyone shorting who is not a creditor or bondholder would be outside the agreement
Gusher. ARCM are being given 500m shares on 1 April and it is the value of these shares that are worth £10m more today than they were yesterday. They will not want to buy any more shares given they will want to sell the 500m as soon as they can (subject to lock in).
The point I was trying to make is that there will not be a short squeeze as PMO share price goes up. The shorters will not need to go to the market to buy shares to close their shorts - they will just wait until they receive their creditor shares on 1 April. In fact there is a motivation to take out more shorts to lock in the gain on their creditor shares. At today’s share price, the creditors are getting back 104% of the value of their debt (some haircut) and there is a strong incentive to lock that gain in though shorting PMO. Accordingly we might see some of the shorts growing if price stays high pre 1 April.
But the if they made 10 million today won’t they be buying (along with the rest) to get the price higher and lock in more profit before the merger? Or am I way off? Confused!
I think shorts are in trouble in this one
The RNS just posted: is that GS just conformation they have purchased more shares? If so expect (imo) to see a small increase in shorts with Melqart as I belive GS are loaning a % out to aid Mel, gain % from loan but benefit from longer term purchase?
Rgds Sft
Gusher. The Shorters are being given (traded for their debt) a huge number of shares which vastly exceeds their shorts (9:1). they are effectively long and not short and will wait to be given their creditor shares on 1 April. At that point they will hand back the shares they borrowed with their creditor shares and then look to sell their remaining creditor shares to institutions. ARCM have made over £10m this morning with the share price increase!
At today’s shares price the creditors are getting back 106p for each 100p of debt in mix of shares and cash. There is a risk that some of the creditors might try to increase their shorts to lock in the gains on their creditor shares. However there are 3billion creditor shares being issued and PMO total number of shares today is less than 1 billion. Accordingly there are not enough shares out their to borrow and short.
I am a retail bond holder and have just shorted PMO this morning via IG Index (please forgive me) to lock in the gain on the creditor shares I will receive on 1 April. I do believe Harbour will be worth 40p by Q4 and I intend to keep the shares I am allocated on 1 April. However I am concerned there will be high volatility in April/May as over 3 billion shares try and find new homes.
Yes, but the price is already going up without them doing anything and they know that they are getting a few billion shares for free just shortly, seems illogical to buy what you will be given for free, no?
But you said the more the sp price goes up the more money they make?
But I don't think they will open a new short now from this price as they have been by FCA for short selling. Don't think no other new company would open a new short now with the rising oil price. This could be the reason why we are seeing the rise in SP. Most will now go long due to the demand coming as we open up.
Gusher. No they won’t. They are being given so many new shares that they will use to close shorts.
Oil price aside then isn’t there a good argument that before PMO becomes HE institutional investors like ARCM with shorts are going to go on a feeding frenzy? PMO will rocket ?? to the moon?
As usual, a good start- gets chipped away then a blast of blue in the afternoon.
A swift half of Tizer followed by a waggon wheel awaits. Hi de Hi Campers.
I regretfully agree. Just shows how inept td and the board were. Shameful really, but hey ho, we have another life.