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Dougie, something that I railed against as a shareholder was the PLE/RPG puffery around Fortacin, so clumsy that not even the greenest of analysts, investors or prospects could not fail to recognise it for what it was. To my certain knowledge, this turned off at least one potential partner.
Prevalence is no indicator of the true market (another gripe: PLE/RPG cite lifetime prevalence estimates, not point prevalence, resulting in an overestimate of at least an order of magnitude). The level of treatment seeking and health system perception of treatment worth (both negligible for PE) dictate value, not some fantasy sufferer estimate. Recordati declined to undertake post-marketing studies to establish benefit as first-line treatment of choice, pointless now with the shift to OTC.
I take your point about noise from a US approval helping in other markets, but remember that we are talking about a product with different unestablished brand names (Fortacin and Senstend, or whatever), no supporting post-approval data and different market channels (OTC versus Rx). Five minutes in the popular press are not going to make a difference. And, to reference my previous post, US approval has zero value without someone in place able to make the best of the three scant years of market exclusivity (but might temporarily lift the share price).
As for "persistence", given RPG's shaky status, they are hardly going to dump an asset that they overvalued and overpaid for. I suspect that the lack of potential has long been recognised- a hand of 2 and a 7 rather than a straight. Fortacin certainly appears to have worked on Mr Mellon in that it has curbed his oft professed "tremendous excitement".
DLI has as much to do with medicine as I have with underwater camel racing. That's not to say there are no serious players in longevity research, but the smart ones have transmogrified into drug discovery companies focusing on age-related conditions, rather than targeting senescence per se. Funnily enough, not many are big on apps.
Genuinely pleased that copper looks like being, uh, a silver lining.
I appreciate the in depth analysis and thoughts Alq, even if they go against what LTH's would ever want. It is a medically researched fact that PE is one the most common problems in that area of health, so I have to disagree that there may not be demand but Fortacin must be shown/proved to be the lead treatment for people to use.
In regards to EU, you have a much better understanding than me of the processes involved so i can't comment too much, my thought is that Fortacin is not a very visible product that people would know about right now, and maybe that could change with more brand awareness from the holy grail us approval , and the boost in coverage if that was achieved from news outlets. This could result in a big increase maybe even outside the us.
If what you say is correct and maybe it is or it is not, I do not understand why the company would have persisted for so long , I believe they must have a very good understanding of the potential.
with regards to DLI I have no understanding apart from the fact that medical area is growing , and Venturex is a surprise that no shareholder would complain about even if it goes against the company's stated philosophy, because it has added some serious value at this stage.
Dougie, sold out a long time ago (my one and only AIM investment- happy ending, luck rather than judgement). Still follow for the chuckles over the RPG alternate reality. For fun, let me give you Dr Alquemie's world view:
Fortacin failed its marketing test in the most developed PE market in the world , even with national promotion by a company with the last remaining urology field force in Europe. Uniquely, Recordati switched a product with no established brand from Rx to OTC status, underscoring how little potential they see. Fortacin has lost its one point of differentiation and protection from the rival knob sprays in that it occupied a prescriber channel. OTC in Europe is tough, with significant differences between national channels, marketing claim restrictions and pharmacy-negotiated pricing. True, Germany and the UK offer broader online reach, but this also generates pricing competition.
Assuming the constant manufacturing issues can be resolved, Recordati will be content for Fortacin to sit in its big bag of OTC bits and bobs doing an annual €1m or so. Investment is long written off and it's a racing certainty that the triggers for sales milestones will never be reached ( the RPG royalty drops to 3% or less within 7 years).
What of new markets? Treatment-seeking is next to zero in the US. New entrants (Romans, etc) offer self-treatment at under $3 a pop (with consultation). CMS does not reimburse lifestyle treatments, and they are top-tiered by other insurers, making for high out of pocket costs (double whammy for high deductible plans). Expensive de novo market development and no established brand or sales history to draw from. No patent protection beyond three years from approval and no technical barriers mean that, if modestly successful, generics will cut your legs off. As an aside, no patent protection has huge implications for any third-party deal structure (Kimble v. Marvel Entertainment. Bummer).
More probable that between the undercooked validation study and inability to fulfil the combination product rule, Senstend (FFS...) will never see a Yankee dawn.
Treatment seeking is even lower in Asia. Taiwan already saturated with Korean and Chinese knob sprays and traditional medicine self treatments. And yes, China is big but reaching and developing a market will be slow, even if telemedicine and distance prescribing supplements the very small number of specialist prescribers. Again, no patent protection, and branded generics could be knocked out over a long weekend. The deal terms and structure indicate low expectation.
DLI is the 21st century equivalent of an "I Speak Your Weight Machine". Early-stage ML/AI pharma assets change hands for tens of millions. DLI was palmed off for $4m. Between mates.
Miners and oilers not in my wheelhouse, but sincerely hope that copper keeps climbing for the sake of LTHs.
So, back to where we were before yesterdays insignificant rise.
Unfortunately , unless some interest is taken in the company, I'm sure, as before, this will slowly be sold downwards. We may see a more sustainable rise once the phase II submission is made as it will be considered a step forward.
However, given it's an Asian driven market, I would expect the news regarding the China delay hasn't done us any favours. As stated previously, this delay and increased number may well add another 12 to 18 months, at least, to the Chinese approval (if the FDA phase II timeline is anything to go by). Although we may be lucky in that we are not paying for it such that Wanbang may well throw more money at it to achieve their milestone , but that may only depend if they feel there is indeed a large market for the product and it doesn't stall like the EU launch???
Hopefully the Chinese government will provide incentives for people to go out and buy the product since they now recognise there is a problem in nationwide fertility rates...... One can but dream....lol
Alq you seem to have a lot of knowledge in the area so appreciate your thoughts , even if could be viewed negatively you raise points . What are your thoughts for how this will play out ? Are you a holder here ?
"Locked" not "locked in". Simply indicates that study data collation is complete and that everything required for analysis is in place and that no unintentional or unauthorised change outside of the clinical data management team.
Yes good points regarding venturex being a legacy holding...but if it’s boosting our market cap then it’s a good thing and can’t be viewed as a negative .
With regards to USA , if the results are good ,will there be more hoops to jump through before a potential partner may get involved ? Surely over all the years they have done their due diligence already on the capabilities of the product and it’s potential worth to them, if it can gain approval for use.
Can anyone explain the “locked in” phrase in the announcement regarding the USA results ? Don’t know what this signifies .
morning all.i have to say my reaction to the update was very much in line with yours,bignose. the china news was quite disappointing and as i mentioned yesterday completely unexplained.what it does is to push china further down the road and place even more emphasis on FDA progress.pretty obvious why they start with vrx, as it's really the only piece of good news (well there is one other bit).agree its not in line with the strategy (what strategy i hear you cry!) but it's a positive development.entirely fortuitous of course and nothing to do with current strategy or business acumen.still good news.i always thought they would participate in the raise.they are a major holder and not to join in would have looked very bad.i agree with you heimdal that the terms are very favourable.its very odd really. the terms were set in feb when vrx's s/p was nothing like it is now. the s/pwent up 150% on the raise announcement and even though it looks like huge dilution it doesn't seem to have impacted market sentiment negatively. if regent didn't participate they would have been diluted, if i understand matters correctly. what i can't really understand is why the vrx s/p isn't being affected by the huge number of new shares that are going to be issued at a very much lower price.agree no news re DLI ,but i wasn't really expecting any. the one bit of good news apart from vrx is the us pricing research.i always take these things with a bucketful of salt and was sceptical of the original figures (145 to 500!),but I'm pleased that the further research gives a reasonable figure,albeit less than ,or at the bottom of, the previous figures. if that means it's more realistic it may help in our being taken seriously by potential us partners.who knows. final point.what the update does for me is to highlight the next most important potential development and that is the topline figures for the us trial. late june/july is going to be absolutely critical here.if there is anything negative in the topline figures i expect the s/p to plummet (hope that's not overly dramatic). if all is ok then probably a modest boost to /p/. so tenterhooks for me for next few weeks.all just my opinion of course.gla
Heimdal,
Cheerup !!!... I'm actually as happy a pig in s_hit.
I've no problem with the product and will always be positive about it and as mentioned before intend to see it out. I just have a problem with the continued lies, misinformation and utter incompetence of JM/JG and the BOD (its been consistently going on since JG took over as CEO at Plethora in 2014). They really appear to have no interest in investors outside of their own club and certainly appear to have little interest in getting their main product to market (even JM appears to have given up on it totally). With a competent team from the beginning (2016 T/O), I am sure we would be in a much better position today. And the more they are applauded for how they operate, the more they will be as useful as f_arts in spacesuits.
We have all been here long enough for them to be honest about what is going on and as I recently stated, the market obviously appears to now consider the company as an amusement, otherwise we wouldn't be at such an unrealistic value. Currently the only new investors who appear to have an interest are day traders who really don't care if the company succeeds or fails. We, however, as long term investors, deserve much better.
Although, yes, VXR is doing well, its not what the company is about anymore, irrespective if it is a good investment or not. The company doesn't want to be associated with mining and instead wants to be taken seriously as a life science company. This will never happen whilst they keep legacy investments and incompetent legacy directors. They are certainly not following their fiduciary duties by stating one thing and doing the exact opposite.
And to rub salt further into the wound, the CEO is still paid about 4 times more than other CEOs who are being paid to run companies of a similar size. And even though they congratulate themselves for his 30% salary reduction, they certainly appear to be ignorant of the fact that dilutionary options are considered as additional salary.
Heimdel I love the positivity! I seriously hope you are right , I keep belief from the fact staff have a track record of some successful deals and hopefully they can produce something special here even when hope is dwindling along for many years . I have read announcements for years and always stated USA partners is in discussion, I can only assume companies must have to wait for results from trials to get involved . Look at what venturex as done out of the blue , hopefully fortacin and deep longevity can follow suit !!
Cheer up Bignose this a long term hold which will eventually come good. With the vital US commercialization moving ever closer this could take off any day. For now we have support around the 18-19c level and resistance around 20c which will be broken sooner or later. WRT our VXR holding, this is a good story, and it is clearly in all holders interest that the BoD take up our full entitlement of 3,407,063 new shares @ 8c each with 1,703,531 free attached options for a mere US$212,744 which is just 6.6% of the US$3.2m received recently from Wanbang. Heimdal
Well, although not flat or even in negative territory, the rise was meagre and can be wiped out in just one day, which no doubt will happen given the relentless selling pressure the last week or two. This, I'm sure, will now continue to drift down until there is news on the US license front, which I feel, other than some positive news regarding the EU OTC sales, is not going to happen any time soon.